Ola Electric Ltd: India’s Tesla or a High-Risk Bet?

~ Sumon Mukhopadhyay.

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Ola Electric Mobility Ltd (Rs.40.17) is a dominant force in India’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) market, bolstered by its ambitious Gigafactory launch and new electric motorcycle portfolio. As Tesla opens its first showroom in Mumbai, a key question emerges:

Is Ola Electric India’s answer to Tesla, and how do its fundamentals stack up in this new competitive landscape?

It is true that with Tesla finally setting foot in India and launching its first showroom in Mumbai, comparisons are now hard to avoid.

Ola shares similarities with Tesla — charismatic leadership, vertical integration through its Bharat Cell battery plant, and a software-driven approach to EVs. Though both aspire to redefine clean transportation, a deeper dig reveals a more nuanced picture.

Tesla’s global scale, profitability, and technological edge stand in contrast to Ola’s ongoing losses, regulatory hurdles, and a crowded domestic market featuring players like Ather, TVS, and Bajaj. Tesla’s Mumbai entry only intensifies the spotlight on Ola’s ability to deliver sustainable growth and profitability.

Brokerage Opinions & Price Targets:

🧨Kotak Institutional Equities (May 30, 2025):

Target Price: ₹30 | Rating: Sell:

Kotak downgraded Ola to "Sell" due to a 32–34% cut in FY26–27 volume forecasts, driven by weaker E2W market growth and delays in motorcycle launches. 

Q4 FY25 EBITDA losses of ₹695 Cr (Vs ₹312 Cr prior year) reflect warranty provisions and soft volumes. Kotak also flagged rising competition and declining brand equity as risks. However, we are yet to get their views post Q1FY26 results.

🧨Goldman Sachs (May 30, 2025):

Target Price: ₹70 | Rating: Buy:

Goldman Sachs remains bullish, citing Ola’s motorcycle portfolio and Gigafactory scale-up. Battery cell yields reached 63% by May 2025, with 80%+ expected soon. They see strong execution potential and sustained market leadership.

🧨HSBC (July 15, 2025):

Target Price: ₹49 | Rating: Hold:

HSBC raised its target price to ₹49 from ₹45, reflecting Ola’s stronger-than-expected Q1 FY26 gross margin of 25.8% (vs. HSBC’s 19% estimate), driven by an 11% cost saving from the new Gen-3 scooter platform. 

However, the brokerage maintained a "Hold" rating due to long-term concerns, including uncertainties around Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) eligibility, battery manufacturing execution risks, and intensifying competition from players like Bajaj, TVS, and Tesla’s India entry. The ₹49 target implies a whooping ~22% upside from the stock’s closing price of ₹40.17 as of July.

Analyst Consensus (July 2025):

Average Target Price: ₹59.14 (Range: ₹30–₹85) | Rating: Neutral:

Consensus reflects mixed sentiment: 2 Buy, 2 Hold, 3 Sell. Bulls highlight Ola’s E2W market share and Bharat Cell potential, while bears emphasize persistent losses (Q1 FY26: ₹428 Cr) and competition. The ₹85 high reflects optimism, but ₹30 underscores near-term risks.

Trendlyne Estimates (July 2025):

Average Target Price: ₹61.64 (Range: ₹30.30–₹89.25):

Trendlyne’s slightly higher target aligns with Ola’s improved Q1 FY26 performance (net loss: ₹428 Cr Vs ₹870 Cr in Q4 FY25) and management’s FY26 guidance of 35–40% gross margins.

My Earlier Report’s Positioning:

🔹Bharat Cell plant launch (October 2025)

🔹Rare-earth-free motors (Q4 FY26)

🔹FY26 sales target of 3.25–3.75 lakh units

🔹Revenue guidance of ₹4,200–₹4,700 Cr with positive EBITDA

While optimistic, your forecast hinges on Ola meeting these milestones amid competitive and regulatory pressures.

Q1 FY26 Performance Snapshot:

Net Loss: ₹428 Cr (improved from ₹870 Cr in Q4 FY25).

Revenue: ₹896 Cr (+23.08% QoQ; -47.85% YoY).

Gross Margin: 25.6%.

Ola shows operational progress, but volume growth and profitability remain challenges.

Key Risks:

🔹Delays in battery and motorcycle rollouts.

🔹Brand perception risks amid rising competition.

🔹Ongoing losses and high cash burn.

🔹Pressure from established players like Tesla and domestic rivals.

These align with my earlier report’s risk disclosures.

Final Thoughts:

Ola Electric is not yet India’s Tesla. While its vision and vertical integration echo Tesla’s playbook, its path to profitability and technological maturity faces hurdles. Tesla’s Mumbai entry underscores the need for Ola to execute flawlessly.

My ₹85–₹100 target is bullish but plausible if Ola delivers on its FY26 goals.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Analyst Sentiment: The full spectrum of views (Buy, Hold, Sell) reflects uncertainty, with my target leaning toward optimistic scenarios.

Execution Dependency: Emphasize that my target assumes Ola meets its ambitious milestones.

Ola remains a high-potential, high-risk bet in India’s EV race.

References:

🔹CNBC TV18. (2025, May 30). Ola Electric Mobility share price target cut to ₹30 by Kotak; Goldman maintains Buy. Retrieved from: 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/ola-electric-mobility-share-price-target-30-rupees-kotak-buy-sell-q4-net-loss-volumes-sales-guidance-19612872.htm

🔹Investing.com. (2025, July). Ola Electric Mobility Ltd – Analyst consensus estimates. Retrieved from: https://in.investing.com/equities/ola-electric-mobility-consensus-estimates

🔹AlphaSpread. (2025, July). Ola Electric Mobility Ltd – Analyst target summary. Retrieved from: https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nse/olaelec/summary

🔹The Economic Times. (2025, July). Ola Electric Q1 FY26 results – Financial snapshot. Retrieved from: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ola-electric-mobility-ltd/stocks/companyid-2206544.cms.