Sunday 29 January 2012

Vijay Shanthi Builders Ltd
BSE Code: 523724
CMP: Rs.21.60
Book Value: Rs.39.07
EPS: Rs.4.43
P/E: 4.88
Industry P/E: 14.51
Market Cap: Rs.56.57 Cr
Chartical Inferences: Buy above Rs.20.50
Target: Rs.25-29
Time: 3-4 months.
Medium Term Target: Rs.41-42 (50%-plus appreciation)

Introduction: Vijay Shanthi Builders Ltd is a Chennai based Real Estate Company, which is known to offer luxury apartments at affordable prices to discerning citizens. The Company currently has several projects under implementation and continues to explore newer opportunities. To rewind, a couple of years back; it merged High End Homes Private Limited into itself. Pursuant to this, the Company issued one equity share of Rs.10 each fully paid up, for every three equity shares held by the Shareholders in High End Homes Private Limited.
The Company runs a mineral water plant in the name of Vijay Shanthi. However, considering miniscule contribution (0.83%) of this segment to its top line, the Board of Directors had proposed to exit the Company from mineral water business from the FY11-12. As the assets deployed by the Company to this segment are very less, this decision would not involve any substantial sale / dilution in the value of assets of the Company.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 66.89% while the general public holds 33.11%. Thus the company has the controlling stake which helps in taking fast decisions.
Financials: For FY11, the company came out with wonderful set of numbers inspite of the slowdown in the real estate sector. The total income of the company for FY11 jumped to Rs.136.40 Cr as against Rs.68.18 Cr in the same period previous year. The PBT of the company for FY11 came out to be Rs.12.09 Cr as against Rs.3.25 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for FY11 came out to be Rs.9.50 Cr as against Rs.2.66 Cr in the same period previous year. The EPS of the company on an expanded equity came out to be Rs.3.63 Cr in FY11 as against Rs.2.09 in the same period previous year.
For Q2FY12, also the company came out with good set of numbers. The total income of the company for Q3FY12 came out to be Rs.51.93 Cr as against Rs.33.61 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company came out to be Rs.3.80 Cr in Q3FY12 as against Rs.2.29 Cr in the same period previous year. The EPS of the company on an expanded equity capital came out around Rs.1.45, in Q3FY12. The net and operating margins of the company on Q-o-Q basis also improved in Q3FY11, though marginally.
Triggers:
(i) The demand for Housing continues to increase as ever, though the increase in lending rates by the Banks affected the off-take of home loans to a large extent, during the last 18 months. However, now with the RBI going in for the CRR cut and a hint towards softer interest rate regime in the coming days, the company is confident that with completion of various residential projects in the coming months, both its top and bottomlines, are set to witness a substantial increase.
(ii) Following are the on-going projects of Vijay Shanthi Builders Limited, which are expected to be revenue accretive in the coming days:
Project Name                                        Location
Lotus Pond                                                               Thaiyur
Infiniti                                                                     Mevalurkuppam
Park Avenue (Phase I)                                              Kandigai
Boulevord                                                                 Kandigai
Silent Valley                                                            Tambaram
Mystiq                                                                     Purasawalkam
The Art                                                                   Nunganbakkam

(iii) Vijay Shanthi Builders Limited has a land holding of 5507795 sq. ft (approx.) which is valued at Rs.1878 crores (approx).
(iv) The futures projects are the following:
Project
Name of the Location
Total Saleable Area
Serene
Perungudi
48000 sq. ft.
Aurum
Besant Nagar
85000 sq. ft.
Whistling Woods
NH4-Bangalore Highway
700000 sq. ft.
Calm Springs
Ratnamangalam Vandalur–             Kelambakkam
1500000 sq. ft.
Eternal Springs
Ambattur
500000 sq. ft.
Among the ongoing projects, the Lotus Pond and Infiniti are nearing completion where as the project: Park Avenue is on scheduled time. The work of other projects is going on full swing. Some of the new projects are at planning and some are at the approval stage.
(v) The Company’s projects are currently located in Chennai, Tamil Nadu only. Since Chennai has a lot of scope and potential, the Company plans to exploit all the opportunities provided by the city to the fullest. In the future the company might think of moving to other locations.
(vi) The expected annual turnover for FY12 could be between: Rs.200-210 Cr, with an expected EPS of Rs.5-6. The company is taking serious steps to reduce the debts, which as on 31.03.2011, stands at Rs.61.19 Cr.
(vii) The Company is consistently paying dividend to its shareholders, since the last 7 years. Due to the Company’s superb performance it has been ranked among the TOP 400 SMALL CAP CORPORATES OF INDIA in Dalal Street Journal's widely circulated and read "SMALLCAP 400, 2011".  Vijay Shanthi builders are the leaders of the High end segment projects and have been conferred  with the prestigious “ACCOLADES OF EXCELLENCE” – India’s Best Residential Project  award for their Unique project  “PATIO” from CNBC & CRISIL. A rare Honour reserved for a select few in the real estate industry. It’s the first and only home in Chennai to have been bestowed with this special privilege.
Conclusion: From the charts it has been found that the scrip has given a major breakout on last Friday (27th January, 2012), which if sustains in the coming days, could take the scrip to around Rs.24-26, in the short term. Considering all the factors mentioned above, investors can go in for the scrip, at the CMP of Rs.21.60, for a price target of Rs.35-37, in the next 3-6 months time frame. Moreover, a decent P/E rating of 10 can take the scrip to around Rs.41-42 in the coming days. The worst is over for the sector, as the rate cut by the RBI is imminent in the next 3-4 months.The investors with a slightly longer time view should hold the scrip in their portfolio.
Disclaimer: Though due care has been taken while preparing this report but no responsibility will be assumed by the author for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on the recommendation or after reading the report.
The call made herein is for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to any person to buy or sell any securities. The information is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed. The author does not accept any liability for the use of this column for buying and selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his acquaintances, his company or his family members may or may not have positions in the Scrip mentioned in this column. Investors should take their own decisions while buying and  selling the shares/securities

Thursday 26 January 2012

Jupiter Bioscience: On a high growth trajectory??!!
CMP: Rs.13.18
Short term target-Rs.18-21
Incorporated in 1992, JBL’s plants are located at Medak District and in Bidar, Karnataka. It is one of the few companies in the world with competency in the synthesis of peptides starting from the basic stage to finished peptides. JBL’s 100% subsidiary, Sven Genetech, has made rapid strides in synthesis of specialty peptides, launch of new formulations and development of its capabilities in diagnostics and enzymes.
Another subsidiary in USA, Jupiter Bioscience Inc., is gearing up for manufacture of custom peptides and generic peptide APIs by the solid phase peptide synthesis. Incorporated in the State of Virginia, USA, to service customers in USA and Canada it provides a wide range of products in Synthetic Peptides, Fmoc, Boc and Z-protected L- and D-Amino Acid, Derivatives, Reagents for Peptide Synthesis, Chiral Intermediates and Speciality and Fine Chemicals.
Jupiter Biosciences AG, Switzerland, is located at Laufelfingen in Switzerland. The focus of manufacturing here includes High value peptide building blocks, Generic peptide APIs, APIs under clinical trials and Custom Peptides.
JBL’s product portfolio further includes speciality and fine chemicals, drug intermediates, bulk drugs and nutraceuticals. Its drugs are used to treat AIDS, cardio vascular diseases and cancer and to make vaccines.
JBL is positioned globally to manufacture quality products for the domestic and overseas markets. It has obtained an ISO:9001-2000 certification for its manufacturing facility located in Andhra Pradesh.
The manufacturing operations in USA are being set up to focus on solid phase peptide synthesis while the operations in Switzerland are directed towards building capabilities on solution phase synthesis. The manufacturing facilities in India focus on manufacturing the reagents and the building blocks. It also manufactures generic peptide and non-peptide APIs for the unregulated markets.
For FY11, JBL’s consolidated sales/income came out to be Rs.331.3 Cr, as against Rs.232.6 Cr in FY10.  The consolidated net profit of the company for FY11 came out to be Rs.48.8 Cr as against Rs.40.2 Cr in the same period previous year.The Book Value of the shares of the company is whopping Rs.120.73. It  has an absurd market cap of Rs.82.29 Cr (When FY11 turnover is Rs.331.3 Cr how can Rs.82.29 be the current market cap, unless there is fierce bear hammering on this scrip??!). The current EPS is Rs.3.04 and the P/E is 4.34 against the industry average of 10.71. A decent P/E of 7-8 can take the scrip to around Rs.21.
JBL had acquired a facility of Merck in Switzerland in June 2008 and forged a 5-year agreement for its peptide products with the pharma giant’s biosciences company. The acquisition of the CGMP facility of Merck would give JBL a faster entry into the regulated markets of Europe and USA.
It has also upgraded its analytical facilities and R&D infrastructure systems in line with the growth in business. It also undertook a major revamp of the unit, which it acquired from Aurobindo Pharma in FY07 to make it suitable for manufacturing peptide group of products and spent Rs.9 Cr in FY09 towards R&D.
A couple of years back, JBL had raised Rs.100 Cr through the QIP route at Rs.153 per share for meeting the cost of expansion in USA and India and for part repayment of debt. At that time the promoters also contributed Rs.25.5  (equity + premium) at a price of Rs.146 per share. The amount so raised was used for the acquisition of the Merck facility in Switzerland.
Its overseas facilities have attained critical mass and will be the key components of its business model in the years to come.
The peptide market, estimated at around $7 billion, represents a significant opportunity for generic players. It is estimated that peptide drugs worth $3 billion (at innovator’s price) will go off patent in the next 3-4 years.
Besides, at a time when the US and European generic markets continue to reel under increasing pressure and ever-rising competition, price erosion for generic peptide drugs remains relatively low.
The global peptide market is expected to continue to grow significantly in the next few years. Currently, there are 270 new peptide drugs under clinical development and 400 in pre-clinical studies globally. The global market for peptide drugs could reach $10 billion in the next three years.
JBL’s focus on business development, R&D on new products, dedicated efforts in reducing production costs, flexibility in product mix with further addition of value added (high margin, low volume) products coupled with further expansion gives visibility to future revenue & profitability.
JBL is also its expanding its business and technological focus on non-peptide generic drugs and intermediates based on organic and chiral chemistry. The non-peptide generic drug market is currently estimated at US $80 billion and is expanding rapidly with many drugs coming out of patent till 2012.
This provides opportunities for growth for Indian companies given their lower cost structure and ability to undertake process development and optimization to compete in the business. This is a good stock to buy at the current market  price of Rs.13.18.

Note: This report is adopted from a write  up in a business weekly.

Saturday 21 January 2012

Allied Digital Services Ltd: Trading at Ridiculous Price!!
BSE Code: BSE: 532875 
Ridiculous CMP: Rs.27.65 
Target: Rs.95-100
Allied Digital Services Ltd. expected to report Q3 2012 results on February 9, 2012: Take Positions in Bulk before that........
It is an IT Infrastructure Management and Technical Support  Services Outsourcing Company with an objective to provide end to end IT  Solutions, outcomes of which have always resulted into a positive  change in the organization. Allied Digital Services Ltd (ADSL) is an experienced entity  having sufficient knowledge of the local market which assists them in  organizing manpower for diverse tasks and contractual works. It has over  more than two decades of experience in enterprise IT Infrastructure,  Management and Implementation and Consulting on complex IT Solutions  for different Business Verticals.
The Company provides credible, high class and customer oriented  services and solutions to clients, actively participate to fulfill the  needs and preferences of the customers, their requirements in a  dedicated manner. Its centric approach has  resulted in high levels of client satisfaction and retention.
The Company''s Net worth as on  March 31st 2011, stood at Rs. 686.06 Cr (as against Rs. 635.13 crore  last year)--against this the market cap of the company is only Rs. 127.82 Cr (CAN YOU BELIEVE??!!). 
The CMP of the shares of ADSL is Rs.27.65, against the Book Value of Rs.148.37. The EPS of the company is Rs.7.32. Its P/E is 3.78, against the Industry  P/E of 20.76. The Company maintains sufficient cash to meet its strategic  objectives. As on March 31st 2011, it has liquid assets  including investment in mutual funds of Rs. 82.09 Cr.
SUBSIDIARIES:
Allied Digital Services Ltd has Seven subsidiaries and one Joint Venture:
  1.  Allied Digital Services, LLC. (USA)
  2.  Allied Digital, INC. (USA)
  3.  Allied Digital Singapore Pte. Limited
  4.  Allied Digital Asia Pacific Pty Limited (Australia)
  5.  Digicomp Complete Solutions Limited
  6.  En Pointe Technologies India Private Limited.
  7.  E-cop surveillance (India) Private Limited.
  8.  Digicomp Electronics Testing Services (Dets) Pte. Ltd. (50:50 Joint  venture of Digicomp Complete Solutions Limited and TES-AMR PTE. LTD.)
INVESTMENTS: The investments of the Company as on March 31st 2011 were to the tune  of Rs. 171.94 crore.  The Book value of the quoted investments for FY11 was Rs. 42.71 crore and the realizable value as at March 31st 2011 for this investments was same as book value.
Moreover, as per NASSCOM-Mckinsey, global offshore IMS market would grow to US$26-28bn by 2013. India’s share of the above opportunity is projected to reach US$13-15bn. Domestically, system integration and infrastructure outsourcing segments are expected to grow at 15% pa each. 
ADSL is an IT infrastructure management and technical support service outsourcing company which has  been mentioned earlier. The company operates across a network of 132 locations across India with a team of ~2,700 employees from different managerial and engineering backgrounds. ADSL has a wholly owned subsidiary in the state of Delaware, USA, by the name of Allied Digital Inc and liasioning offices in sydney, Australia and New Jersey, USA. EPGS, LLC USA and Digicomp Complete Solutions Ltd are two newly acquired subsidiaries of ADSL. EPGS operates out of 27 locations in the US with ~340 employees. ADSL enables large and medium enterprises and service providers to reduce their total cost of ownership of IT infrastructure by using a combination of onsite and remote services. The company has been a preferred choice for outsourced technical support for large corporate customers in India. The experience and expertise in system integration (SI), wide onsite reach, sizeable remote infrastructure and technological depth make ADSL a very competitive IMS player. Company’s IMS clientele includes large domestic corporates. The IMS offering of the company comprises FMS (onsite proactive management), AMC (need-based reactive management) and RIMS (remote proactive management). Company typically signs three-year contracts with customers for providing IMS services. ADSL provides SLA-based IMS services. Key elements of a SLA are the infrastructure/assets to be managed (network, servers, desktops, storage, security, applications, etc) and the required uptime (availability) of these assets/applications. ADSL commits to a particular uptime level based on its own assessment of the client’s infrastructure. Company then decides on the onsite: remote mix of resources to provide the committed uptime level. The customers are less concerned about the number of resources deployed by ADSL and its onsite: remote mix but are more concerned about the availability of their IT infrastructure.
ADSL’s IMS services are significantly cost-competitive than some of the large Indian offshore vendors who provide onsite IMS services based on people-billing model. By shifting infrastructure maintenance to ADSL from these vendors, clients could save 20-40% for a similar or higher uptime service levels. For IMS contracts, company has a technology–process–people approach unlike competitors which have a reverse approach.

ADSL has entered into a deal with Lenovo to service all its client’s laptops and desktops for 3 years in the US. There are 3 levels of services involved from zero human intervention in Level 1 to onsite service engineer support in Level 3. Level 1 has automated resolution where issues are automatically sent to NOC in India and are resolved by pushing solutions through the network without any human intervention. Level 2 consists of relatively heavier updates and in Level 3 a service engineer is sent for onsite support. Though the deal is not exclusive with ADSL, its experience and knowledge base due to long incumbency in this field gives it a strong competitive advantage. The company is currently in negotiations to enter into a similar tie-up with Lenovo in Europe.
Advantage to consumers: The costs of servicing laptops are quite high in the US markets as a result such a provision helps to save on these costs for the length of the maintenance period.

The experience of ADSL in solving such issues has led to an automatic resolution of majority of the issues thus saving a lot of time and increasing uptime.
Advantage to ADSL:

The technology leveraged approach of ADSL effectively leads to non–linear revenue stream (most issues being resolved automatically ie without human intervention) ADSL accrues 30-35% margins per device per customer from the revenues emanating out of such services.
Possibility of similar deals with other OEM manufacturers will help ADSL scale-up non-linear revenue component. Revenues from this arrangement are expected to trickle from the current quarter. As per the company, full-year revenues could be  US$15mn in FY12. 
A decent P/E of 15 for the scrip (Allied Digital Services Ltd) gives the target as Rs.95-100, after giving suitable discounts. At the CMP of Rs.27.65, it is just a steal. Buy as much as  you can at the CMP of Rs.27.65 and make merry.....

Friday 13 January 2012

Why should one buy Northgate Technologies Ltd at Rs.8.40-8.45....??!!
Please Click on the Image to Expand
There are lot of reasons why one should invest in the shares of Northgate Technologies Ltd. Let me first give a little description of the infrastructure of the company:
  • World-class State of the Art Infrastructure with inbuilt redundancy;
  • Established server farms at Bournemouth, UK;
  • Capacity of the server farm includes Peta Bytes of storage, Tera Bytes of data transfer, Tera Flops of computation speeds;
  • Server farms have been developed on a modular architecture bases, allowing us to expand them as demand and new technologies require;
The company believes that a successful internet businesses must have capacity to handle, process and track millions of information inflows and outflows on cost efficient, reliable and scalable bases. The company has such capacity in the form of its server farms in United Kingdom and Hong Kong. Its remote monitoring capabilities of level1 and 2 from India ensures lower operating expenses.  The company's server farm infrastructure is a core pillar of all its existing businesses.  
Also, I have given one of the newspaper reports above; some more points, will be briefly described here: 
(i) During the FY11, the Company achieved revenues of Rs.129.67 Cr as against Rs.74.46 Cr Lakhs in FY10, on consolidated basis. The Company''s consolidated Net Profit for FY11 was Rs.1.05 Cr (Net Profit--Minority Interest) as against a loss of Rs.14,6. 98 Cr the same period previous year.
(ii) The revenues of the group derived from its online advertising segment increased to Rs.48.75 Cr during the FY11, as compared to Rs.33.05 Cr in the same period previous year. 
(iii) Further, the group has commenced new business segment of Commodity Trading from September 20, 2010 by acquiring 51% shareholding of Green Fire Agri Commodities private limited. Within six months of acquisition, the commodities trading business has shaped very well and the company expects that in coming years 'Green Fire" will become a prominent player in commodities trading. Hence,  the company decided to list both businesses of the Company i.e. Commodities Trading and Internet Business separately to unlock the value for all the stakeholders of the Company. Post restructuring, shareholders of Northgate Technologies Ltd will hold the same number of shares as they hold in Northgate in both the Companies i.e. Green Fire and Northgate Com Tech. The face value of Northgate Com Tech will be Rs.10 and Green Fire will be Re.1. The revenues from commodities trading segment was Rs. 80.41 Cr for the FY ended March 31, 2011.
(iv) Northgate Technologies Ltd recently informed BSE that Ziddu.com, a well known and leading file sharing site has come up with innovative development, with which people can upload photos / videos / recorded audio files to Ziddu.com and can email to their friends from mobile itself. Ziddu Mobile App is available for Android and iPhone users.  This feature is unique and not available in any file sharing site. This feature allows users to share files instantly since it is from mobile. Ziddu.com is in the top 500 websites of the world according to Alexa and with these mobile apps it will be in top 200 websites of the world very soon! Ziddu.com is owned by Social Media India Ltd which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company.
(v) The group has as part of its restructuring envisaged the segregation of its internet and commodity trading operations. The group believes that the restructuring will result benefits of:
(a) Effcient and focused management on each segment; 

(b) Unlocking value for the shareholders of Northgate; and (c) Operating and Administrative effciencies.
Northgate Technologies Ltd has recently informed BSE that at the Court convened Meeting of Members of the Company held on September 30, 2011, they have unanimously approved the Composite Scheme of Arrangement and Amalgamation between M/s. Northgate Technologies Ltd. and M/s. Northgate Com Tech Ltd. and M/s. Green Fire Agri Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and their respective Shareholders.
(v) The Salient features of the Scheme are:
 a) The appointed date of the Scheme is 1 April, 2011.
 b) The Scheme involves the demerger of the Internet Business Undertaking of Northgate Technologies Ltd (NTL) into Northgate Com and Merger of Green Fire into
 NTL. This is expected to give a booster of revenues for the company in the standalone basis too, as most of the company's revenues are coming from the trading activity. In the meantime, as the advertising market improves, the valuation of Northgate Com would also rise. This gives double benefits for the shareholders of Northgate Technologies. 
 c) Based on Independent Valuation and fairness opinion, the Board approved and recommended the share entitle ratio as follows:

  •  1 (one) fully paid equity shares of Rs. 10 each of Northgate Com shall be issued and allotted for every 1 (one) equity share of Rs. 10 each held in NTL.
  •  158 (One hundred and ffity eight) fully paid equity shares of Rs. 10 each of NTL shall be issued and allotted for every 1 (one) fully paid equity shares of Rs. 10 each held in Green Fire (except in respect of shares held by NTL in Green Fire).
  •  Consequent to the demerger of the Internet business of NTL into Northgate Com, the equity shares of the Northgate Com will be listed on the National Stock Exchange of India ; and
  •  Consequent to the Merger of Green Fire into NTL, the name of the NTL will be Changed to Green Fire Agri Commodities Limited and the face value and the paid up value of the equity shares of the NTL together with the new shares issued and allotted on merger will be reduced by Rs. 9 without payment to the holders of such equity shares of NTL. The shares of NTL will continue to list on National Stock exchange of India.
(vi) Some of the company's subsidiaries are doing well. Some of them are mentioned below:
(a) Social Media India Limited (SMIL) is a India based wholly owned subsidiary of  Globe7 Pte Limited (GPL). For the FY11,  SMIl recorded revenues of Rs. 32.60 Cr and achieved net profit of Rs. 5.76 Cr.
(b) Globe 7 UK Limited (Globe 7 UK)  was incorporated on April 8, 2010.  It owns group server farm located at Bournemoth, UK. Globe 7 UK recorded revenues of Rs. 1.57 Cr for the year ended March 31, 2011. 
(vii) On 14 March 2011, Bharatstudent.com, India's largest student and youth community platform announced their integration with Facebook to leverage the synergies between the two companies. The integration allows for people to login to Bharatstudent with their Facebook account, includes social plugins that enables Facebook users to comment, 'Like' all articles, videos, photos, movie reviews, informative articles and other exclusive content, and enables discovery and sharing of relevant educational and entertainment content through their friends.
Using Artificial Intelligence, India based Bharatstudent.com tailored a feature to match to the relevant new updates (viz; Articles, Photos, videos and reviews) for Facebook users and will be carried in Bharat Student "Like Box" as per the specific user interest.
With over 15 million plus users in India, Facebook has gained a cult status in the Indian market. This integration is expected to further enhance the user experience for the subscribers. With this integration the company looks forward to reach out to double its user base  within a couple of years.
Facebook users can:
* get recommendations for videos, photos and articles @ 'BS Like Box'
* check his daily horoscope
* make free online international calls
* get access to Indian and Study Abroad information
* find Mock Tests for various competitive examinations
* know Examination Results
* access to Live Cricket Score Boards
* read Film News and Reviews of 6 regional languages
* listen to Live Radio
* avail other features and services
Just by logging in with his /her Facebook id and password in Bharatstudent.com. 

Bharatstudent.com is focused on providing comprehensive solutions for any personal and professional issues of young Indians, including issues related to study aboard, friendships and individual talent promotions. It is a portal run by Social Media India Ltd., a 100% owned subsidiary of Northgate Technologies Ltd. Over the last 4 years, Bharatstudent.com has emerged as India's largest student and youth community platform with more than 7 million Visitors every month and is ranked by Comscore.com (ComScore Reports – 2008, 2009, 2010) as the 3rd most frequently visited website after Facebook and Orkut. It has also been listed as among the Top 50 Digital Brands in India by the Economic Times Survey 2010. The company Internet Business is progressing very well. All the web properties are attracting more than 10 million audiences every month led by bharathstudent.com.
(viii) For Q2FY12 on a consolidated basis, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.153.62 Cr as against Rs.14.72 Cr in the same period previous year. For Q2FY12, the net profit of the company on a consolidated basis came out to be Rs. 89.10 lakhs as against Rs.32.8 lakhs in the same period previous  year.  This shows a gradual improvements in the fundamentals of the company. 
Therefore, the investors should buy the scrip of the company at Rs.8.40--8.45, for a target of Rs.18-22 in the medium term. In the long term the scrip can touch Rs.32-35.

Tuesday 3 January 2012

~:SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd's expansion plans are on track:~
Ludhiana-based integrated textile conglomerate, SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd., has achieved a turnover of Rs. 1,071.67 crores for the half-year ended September 30, 2011, against Rs. 812.79 crores in the corresponding period last year, an increase of 31.85 per cent. Earnings before depreciation, interest and tax increased from Rs. 137.18 crores in the first half of 2010-11 to Rs. 182.45 crores during the half-year ended September 30, 2011, recording an increase of 33 per cent. Profit after tax during the half-year ended September 30 stood at Rs. 39.06 crores (Rs. 52.79 crores).
While increase in EBIDTA is attributable to operational efficiencies, the company is going through a lot of expansion and the full contribution thereof is yet to be captured in its financial results.
The Indian economy has been witnessing increasing interest rates. Yarn prices had an uncertain and declining trend. Further, the uncertainty in the Government policies with regard to cotton and cotton yarn exports have also added to the woes of the textile sector.
The early part of the current fiscal was marked by a high volatility in cotton prices. The trend of spiralling raw material prices was reversed, followed by a steep fall in the prices of cotton by the end of the last season. Still cotton prices were very high as compared to the previous years. Indian textile companies, which were carrying stocks of cotton of high cost had to face a very tough situation as yarn prices had fallen steeply and demand was sluggish. This unprecedented phenomenon in cotton prices, high inventory carrying costs followed by devaluation of stocks has been quite challenging for the textile sector and has been greatly responsible for erosion in profitability.
SEL Manufacturing, however, continues moving forward on the expansion front. The company is implementing another integrated textile project for setting up a spinning unit with a capacity of about two lakh spindles, 40 million metres in denim fabric and 8 million pieces in denim garments per annum. The project is coming up in Muktsar district of Punjab.
Earlier, during the current fiscal, the company had partly made operational its spinning unit in Sehore district of Madhya Pradesh. Its implementation is in full swing.
Out of the total capacity of 4,00,000 spindles, 50,000 spindles are already operational. By January, 2012, a total of one lakh spindles will be operational. The products manufactured in this unit have already started catering to the Indian as well as overseas markets. The company is hopeful that the full capacity will be attained within one year. 

It is also increasing the capacity of its spinning units at Neemrana in Rajasthan and at Hansi in Haryana by addition of about 60,000 spindles, which would be operational by February-March 2012.
SEL is also increasing its annual capacity in terry towels and knitted garments from 45 TPD to 100 TPD and from 20 million to 50 million pieces respectively. With this expansion and capacity augmentation, SEL offers a promising future for its stakeholders.
The company is emerging a leading textile manufacturer over the last few years. From the setting up of its first spinning unit in 2005 and its first loom in 2008, the company is building up its capacities with ultra-modern technologies. The plant and machinery deployed by the group is relatively young.
On the CSR front, SEL’s model outlines various development activities in education, sports, environment and medical facilities. SEL’s CSR efforts echo values for a progressive state, promoting and practicing action beyond mere statutory compliance.
With adequate utilization of the available technology and human capital and driven by a systems and forward-looking approach, the group is carving out a niche for itself not only in the Indian textile sector but also on the global map.
 
Courtesy: Indian Textile Magazine

Pick of the Week:

Kernex Microsystems India Ltd: Basking on Huge land Holdings:

BSE Code: 532686
CMP: Rs.82.6

Book Value: Rs.105.43

Market Cap: Rs.103.25 Cr

 

Introduction: Established in 1991 and registered as 100% Export Oriented Unit with Software Technology Parks of India, Department of Electronics, Govt. of India, New Delhi, it is a ISO 9001:2000 certified company with expertise in Software, Hardware development and Systems Integration. It is presently engaged in the business of manufacturing, installing and maintaining of anti-collision systems as well as conceptualizing, designing, and developing certain railway safety and signal systems for Konkan Railways Corporation Ltd. These safety and signal systems are suitable for medium to low speed & density railway tracks like in India and other developing countries.

The company entered into a technology partnership with Konkan Railway Corporation Ltd, Navi Mumbai for design, engineering and development of anti-collision systems which provides safety to trains in Railways. It holds exclusive license for manufacturing, installation, commissioning and maintenance of anti-collision systems in India. It also has an outsourced facility for the Konkan Railways Corporation Ltd for manufacture and supply of ACDs and related accessories. It is also a technology partner for the development and implementation of ADDs for Metro Sky-Bus Urban Transportation System, Advanced Railway Signal Systems and other safety systems. It holds exclusive marketing rights of ACD systems all over the world except India.

Based on the concept and domain knowledge provided by Konkan Railway Corporation Ltd, it has developed the networked Anti-Collision Devices, using Global Positioning System, Radio Data Communication, Application Logics and Inter facing these with an Auto Breaking System developed by KRCL. With operations in USA and planned operations in Far East, Africa and Middle East, Kernex is truly a global player in the offing.

 

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 55.74% while the general public holds 44.26%. Moreover FII hold 1.55%, while mutual funds/UTI holds 1.11%.

 

Shareholding belonging to the category
"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

SMS Holdings Pvt Ltd

273,181 

2.19 

2

Somerset Emerging Opportunities Ltd

193,217 

1.55 

3

Enam Investment Services Pvt Ltd

137,500 

1.10 

4

UTI Mid Cap Fund

139,156 

1.11 

5

Vinaya Kumar Gavini

160,267 

1.28 

6

Challa Subrahmanay Sarma

186,212 

1.49 

 

 Total

1,089,533 

8.72 

 

 

Financials: For Q1FY10, the company came out with flat topline and a slightly subdued bottomline. The total income of the company for Q1FY10 came out to be Rs.5.82 Cr as against Rs.5.97 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q1FY10 dipped due to higher interest and tax component to Rs.52.3 lakhs as against Rs.1.07 Cr in the same period previous year.

 

Triggers:

  1. The company would benefit from the Indian Railway’s move to focus more on signal modernization and increased usage of automated signaling systems. Kernex Microsystems (India), the Hyderabad-based railway safety product manufacturer is the only player in anti-collision devices for the Railways and is set to capitalize on the public sector transporter’s thrust on ‘safety’.
  2.  Kernex Microsystem last year announced to foray into infrastructure projects and power sector, the two most happening sectors of today.
  3. The company has redrawn its plans to carry on the expansion programme, wherever required, as against plans mentioned in the prospectus dated December 6, 2005 in regard to scheduled time of completion. However, establishment of new manufacturing centre for ACID, ADDS and Advanced Signal Systems, construction of various buildings, including machinery & external services, electrical supply, roads, sewage &  compound  walls, gates  and  other related security arrangements and also training centre, cafeteria and transit accommodation for trainees, R&D Block, administration and  manufacturing  facility is nearing completion.
  4. The Phase-1 of development of ACD systems has been completed and pilot project commissioned in the Q1FY10. Railways have accepted the ACD system for deployment in all the Railways. Orders are expected through Konkan Railways Corporation for Southern, South Central and South Western Railways in the near future.
  5. Honourable Railway Minister during the Railway Budget speech on 26th February, 2008, stated that ACD is found working satisfactory and therefore, proposed to be deployed in South Central and South Western and Southern Railways.  According to Railways Corporate Safety Plan, ACD deployment is to be completed all over Indian Railways by 2013-2014. This is music to the investors in Kernex Micro Systems.
  6. The Company has signed a contract in November, 2008 with Egyptian National Railways, Egypt for development and supply of 136 Semi-Automatic Level crossing Gates. The Contract is under execution.
  7. Its unique product, Multi-Section Digital Axle Counter has been developed under technical collaboration on schedule time and is under cross approval by RDSO, Lucknow, Indian Railways. It is to be noted that the company earlier dropped the product called TAWD, consequent to the dropping of the same by the Indian Railways, in view of anticipated huge demand for the product called 'Digital Axle Counter’.
  8. Its R&D Division has done number of improvements and changes in the application software and hardware as required by the Konkan Railway Corporation. This includes AMSS, upgradation of ACD Reporting System & ACD survey automation system.
  9. The company’s International Marketing division continued marketing operation for selling the ACD and related systems in Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Pakistan, Australia and South Asian countries. Consequently the ACD System is short listed as one of the viable system for Egyptian Railways. South African Railways is also examining the possibility of integrating the ACD system with OBC system already installed in South African Railways, spoornet.
  10. The company has also been working on development of 'Multi Section Digital Axle Counter’ in collaboration with M/s Altpro, Zerob, Croatia.  Complete test data, technical details, company details and Safety case has been submitted to RDSO, Indian Railways. Discussions with Altpro, to jointly manufacturing the product and KMIL to Market the product to Indian Railways is in progress. Meanwhile M/s Altpro, Croatia has appointed Kernex as their Sole technology partner  / Altpro Agent / Joint Venture partner in Indian subcontinent  for their  product  range like Digital Axle Counter,  Train  detection  System, ATPS, SIFA, incident recorder and for other safety system.
  11. The company has entered into technology partnership with Tiffien Batch, Germany for providing Automatic & Semi Automatic Level crossing system, up to Sit 3 levels. This  should  help  Kernex  to  enter  into International markets in semi developed and under developed countries  like Africa  and South Fast Asia and Australia for the supply a  Level  Crossing Systems.
  12. The  company  has so far purchased over 243 Acres of land at  the  Warangal highway  near  Yadagirigutta and has also acquired over 157 Acres  land  at Amanagul,  Mehboobnagar  district and acquisition of further Land,  in  the area  is planned.  All equipments required for this project have been fully acquired. In case of SPAD, planning is in progress and the project is expected to be completed by Dec, 2009 as against the revised scheduled month of June, 2008. This is due to delay in finalization of specifications and requirements by Indian Railways.
  13. The development of Hot Box and Wheel Vibration Detection systems is in progress and is expected to be completed by 31st Dec, 2009 as against the revised scheduled month of Nov, 2008. This is due to delay in finalization of specifications. Another opportunity waiting in the wings is the provision of ATP system for Metro Trains that are planned in major cities of the country.  With technological collaboration, the company can become one of the important players in this field too.
  14. New Offices of the company are being established in Delhi, Chennai.  Guntakal and Hubli based on the release of new orders and also central survey centre at Hyderabad. Other  locations  will  be  taken up  in  phased  manner  as  per  the commencement of work ordered by Indian Railways. Kernex Microsystems (India) set up a 100% subsidiary in the US in September 2000 to implement software products of the company in that country. It is now engaged in developing and implementing software for the US corporate hospitals.

 

Concerns:

  • The biggest threat the company faces is from Multi Nationals, who want to sell their equipment in India. To gel over this competition, the Company is upgrading the technology at a fast pace.
  • Any delay in decision making, administrative and departmental procedures could delay the receipt of orders, making its facilities idle and under productive.

 

 

Chart Check and Conclusion: Considering the points mentioned above the stock could be purchased at the CMP of Rs.82.6 for 6 months to 9 months time frame for at least 50% appreciation from the current price. Moreover, an encouraging fact is that the promoters are technocrats and have wide experience in electronics/software industries, both in India and abroad and hence they possess a deep understanding of the business of the company. Another point which is worth noting is that the stock is trading below its book value of Rs.105.43

Now from the charts it has been found that the stock is in highly oversold territory and a small bounce cannot be ruled out in the short term. Though Bollinger bands are in buy mode however, other momentum parameters are still not giving an immediate buy for the scrip. Also, though the MACD is not giving an immediate buy signal but it could slowly drift towards the buy mode. The stock needs to close above Rs.85 on closing basis, to start rising again. If it crosses Rs.95 which looks probable the stock could touch as high as Rs.130. Please keep a SL of Rs.67 for any short term trade.

Pick of the week

DECCAN CHRONICLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

BSE Code: 532608

Face Value: Rs.2

CMP: Rs.37.85

EPS: Rs.5.5

P/E: 6.88

Dividend: 150%

Book Value: Rs.43.58

Market Cap: Rs.926.86 Cr

52-Week High/Low: Rs.224/Rs.36.15

 

Introduction: Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd, erstwhile Deccan Chronicle was formerly engaged in weekly and daily journals in Andhra Pradesh. The company acquired a news paper publishing business in December 2002; post which it established a strong foothold in the state. The company aims to be the leading publishing house in the country.

Deccan Chronicle, the flagship newspaper of the company is the leading English daily in Hyderabad and Andhra Pradesh. It publishes seven editions of the Deccan Chronicle in Andhra Pradesh from their printing presses located at Hyderabad/Secunderabad, Vijayawada, Rajahmundry, Vishakapatnam, Anantapur, Karimnagar and Nellore. It is the fourth largest circulated and read English daily in India. Besides Deccan Chronicle, the Company also publishes Andhra Bhoomi in Telugu (daily, weekly and monthly).

Deccan Chronicle covers latest local, regional, national and international news. The newspaper also provides business, sports, weather, city culture, beauty, and health related news and information through its online portal.

 

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 63% while the general public’s holding is 37%. Among the non-promoters are a number of Mutual Fund houses which holds substantial stake in the company.

Shareholding belonging to the category
"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

 EQ Advisors Trust - EQ/VQN Kqmpen Emerging Markets

2,715,990 

1.11 

2

 Deutsche India Equity Fund

3,166,001 

1.29 

3

 Merrill Lynch India Equities Fund Mauritius Ltd

3,542,473 

1.45 

4

 Ward Ferry Management Ltd A/C WF Asian Smaller

4,268,064 

1.74 

5

 Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc A/c Morgan

3,888,224 

1.59 

6

 Life Insurance Corporation of India

3,429,892 

1.40 

7

 Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund A/c Franklin India

3,200,000 

1.31 

8

 Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund A/c Morgan Stanley Growth

3,675,000 

1.50 

 

 Total

27,885,644 

11.39 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Financials: For Q3FY09, the company came out with almost flat topline and subdued bottomline, due to general downturn in the world economy.

The total income of the company for Q3FY09 rose to Rs.228.3 Cr as against Rs.226.5 Cr in the same period previous year. Deccan Chronicle Holdings’ third quarter net profit fell 75% to Rs25.67 crore over the corresponding period a year ago. The net profit of the company for Q3FY09 came out to be Rs.25.7 Cr as against Rs.102.94 Cr in the same period previous year. For the nine-month period ended 31 December, Deccan Chronicle posted a net profit of Rs131.92 crore, a 51% decline from Rs269.29 crore last year.

The operating and net profit margins of the company decreased considerably Y-o-Y. The net profit suffered due to high raw material price (Rs.129.04 Cr in Q3FY09 as against Rs.82 Cr], higher staff cost (Rs.13.53 Cr in Q3FY09 as against Rs.6.53 Cr), and almost doubling of other expenditure (Rs.17.73 Cr as against Rs.9.8Cr). However with the government expected to come out with special package for the media sector, the company’s top and bottomline could change dramatically on the positive side.

 

Investment Rationale:

  • Advertisement, the main growth driver: Advertisement is the key revenue driver in the Indian newspaper giant. DCHL’s advertisement revenue accounts for nearly 80%-90% of the total revenue. The media industry, both print and electronic, is facing the impact of the global financial crisis in the form of decline in advertisement revenue. However, representatives of the print media had already approached the I & B ministry seeking an upward revision in rates of government advertisements. The government has almost assured to some stimulus package to the media industry and to tide over the situation.
  • Foray into new business: The Deccan Chronicle group has floated an international cargo airline company “Flyington Freighters Ltd”. The new company, which will start services from July this year, has placed orders for purchase of six A330-200F cargo planes from Airbus at a cost of $175 million each. While the aircraft delivery is slated for 2009-2010, Airbus has agreed to lease two aircraft to the company in the mean time.
  • Launching New Editions: In the middle of last year, Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd launched its Mumbai Edition of "Financial Chronicle" in association with the "International Herald Tribune". During the year, 2008, DCHL entered the Business daily market by launching its newest print offering, Financial Chronicle simultaneously from Hyderabad and Chennai and extended its presence in Bangalore and Mumbai recently. Also, it announced a tie up with International Herald Tribune for launching its branded 'World Business Section' inside Financial Chronicle. The Mumbai edition of the Financial Chronicle would have four pages of IHT's World Business Section and its logo would be put on the front page of the daily. But one should remain cautiously optimistic on DCHL's foray into this space as it is already crowded with several offerings by other big Print Media houses. During May 2008, the company finally launched its much awaited Bangalore edition of Deccan Chronicle.
  • Strengthening its base in Southern India: The company had already launched the Bangalore edition of Deccan Chronicle and approved an initial investment of Rs.25 Cr in addition to the use of existing assets in other locations.
  • Inorganic expansion: The company is expanding its reach through inorganic expansions. It had acquired control of Asian age Holdings, which publishes newspaper “The Asian Age” in five cities. The acquisition will help strengthen the brand image of Asian Age at the back of increasing print run. The company had also acquired Odyssey India Ltd (Odyssey) for Rs.61.2 crore, in a cash deal. Odyssey is a growing leisure retail chain, is engaged in sale of books, music, toys, greeting cards and FMCG products. This move was intended to notch advertisement from FMCG giants.
  • Buy Back of Equity Shares: The Board approved the proposal for buy back of equity shares of Rs.2 each of the fully paid up equity share capital of the Company, at a price not exceeding Rs.100 per equity share aggregating to Rs.180 Cr from equity shareholders other than the Promoters and persons in control of the Company. The maximum number of shares to be bought back through the Stock Exchanges shall not exceed 3, 50, and 00,000 Equity Shares of Rs.2 each which represents 14.29% of the paid up capital of the Company. However the Promoter Holding in the Company shall not exceed 75% of the Paid up capital of the Company post buy back. The minimum number of Equity Shares (minimum buy back shares) to be bought back is 1,00,00,000 Equity Shares of Rs.2 each.
  • Stimulus Package for the Media Sector to boost growth: Taking note of the difficulties faced by the media industry due to the financial crisis, the government last week said it will shortly announce a stimulus package for the sector. The I & B ministry has already sent certain recommendations about the package to the Finance ministry and the government is expected announce it soon. Moreover, the good point is that the said package is mostly concerning the print media and hence the scrip is expected to be positively effected more than those in the electronic media.  
  • Indian Premier League (IPL)--Profitable in the first year itself: Deccan Chronicle had bagged the rights for the IPL team of Hyderabad for US $107mn payable over the next 10 years. The IPL Hyderabad rights would be a part of Sieger Solutions. DCHL named the team Deccan Chargers and spent around $5.9mn in annual fees to recruit players. While there is every chance that the venture would achieve breakeven only after a couple of years, management has indicated that the IPL venture turned profitable for the company in the first year itself. DCHL clocked around Rs107.5cr revenue and incurred expenses to the tune of Rs88cr during its first year of operations. Hence, it made a neat profit of Rs19.5cr from the venture. Also Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd will not sell its Indian Premier League cricket team, Deccan Chargers, as there were no buyers in the market, a top official said. Deccan will review the decision to sell Deccan Chargers in three years from now as this downturn cycle was likely to be extended till 2012. It is to be noted that, Deccan Chronicle had in 2008 paid $107.01 million for the Hyderabad team for Indian cricket board’s Twenty20 series for 10 years.
  • Sieger Solutions – Potential unlocking on the cards: Sieger Solutions, a wholly owned subsidiary of DCHL, was formed in July 2006 to handle media space selling for DCHL for a pre-defined commission. However, Sieger has stopped clocking revenues from this model and now houses all the internet portals – Deccanchronicle.com, Papyrusclubs.com and Mydigitalfce.com. For FY2008, Sieger Solutions registered revenues of Rs.72 Cr and PAT of Rs.35 Cr primarily driven by a subscription based model from a website called Papyrusclubs.com (student community forums) under which it has tied up with several institutes to publish and share campus news over the Internet. Recently, DCHL also entered into an outsourcing agreement with New York Times (NYT) to manage their internet properties out of India as well as some of the development activities connecting to the digital space. Sieger Solutions is expected to rake in incremental revenues of Rs.150 Cr from this arrangement in FY2009. DCHL is also in talks to sell 5% equity stake in Sieger Solutions to NYT.

 

Conclusion:  During FY2008-10, we can expect DCHL to post a CAGR growth of 16% in Revenue aided by 18% CAGR growth in advertising revenues and 8% CAGR in circulation revenues. On the Earnings front, we can expect DCHL to report a CAGR of 15% largely boosted by a decline in interest costs

However, on the operating front, the DCHL is expected to post a subdued growth owing to a sharp decline in Operating Margins on account of stiff competition in Chennai, initial losses on account of the Bangalore edition and the Financial Chronicle launch, and higher newsprint prices. Hence, we can expect DCHL to post a CAGR growth of 9% in EBITDA during FY2009-10.

However, there are valid concerned on DCHL owing to its poor quality of growth (funding working capital requirements through Balance Sheet), scalability issues (too much dependence on single region), poor corporate governance (management not delivering on promises made – buyback, un-locking in subsidiaries) and unsustainable Margins (60% OPM as against peer average of 20%). While management has addressed some of these concerns – reduced debtor days to 90 days by securitization with ICICI for a 12% discount, and initiated talks with NYT to unlock value in Sieger, still some more clarity on the same is expected. Moreover, depreciating rupee is negative for the company as it imports newsprints.

Growing awareness among the common mass is leading to the rise in the circulation of newspaper. The growth was triggered mainly by India and china. DHCL occupies second position in the print industry and caters to the most part of the Southern India. Its paper Deccan Chronicle is the most read newspaper in Andhra Pradesh, Chennai and Hyderabad. The company is also eying a substantial share in Bangalore and is expanding to newer geographies which include Mumbai and Pune. Revenues of the company will also be triggered, by the upcoming expansion plans of Odyssey.

At the CMP of Rs.37.85, the stock is trading at dirt-cheap valuations considering its future upsides from the Sieger Solutions deal with NYT and IPL’s good performance. The valuation can also be corroborated by the growing advertisement revenues and increasing subscription.

Note: This Report is from the Yesterday's (08-02-09) Sunday Report which was sent to the Paid Groups, Yesterday (8th February, 2009

Is Satyam Computers Services Ltd, a buy at Rs.39.95 ??!!

To understand this fact, let us consider the following points, a little meticulously .........

                         Satyam Computer Services Ltd

 

Scrip Code :  500376

Quarter ending :  September 2008

 

Shareholding belonging to the category
"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

 Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd A/C Aberdeeninternational India Opportunities Fund ( Mauritius ) Ltd

23,800,000 

3.53 

2

 Fidelity Management & Research Company A/C Fidelity Investment Trust - Fidelity Diversified International-Fund

23,000,000 

3.42 

3

 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd

16,621,682 

2.47 

4

 Lazard Asset Management LLC A/c Lazard Emerging Markets Portfolio

14,490,567 

2.15 

5

 Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd A/C Aberdeen Global Asia Pacific Fund

10,680,500 

1.59 

6

 Life Insurance Corportion of India

9,959,281 

1.48 

7

 Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt

8,203,186 

1.22 

8

 JP Morgan Asset Management Europe SARL A/c Flagship Indian Investment Co Maurities Ltd

8,179,448 

1.21 

9

 LIC of India Money Plus

7,941,345 

1.18 

10

 Swiss Finance Corporation Mauritius Ltd

7,515,806 

1.12 

11

 Government of Singapore

7,128,885 

1.06 

12

 Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company Ltd

7,096,342 

1.05 

 

 Total

144,617,042 

21.47 

 

The following Fund Houses sold shares yesterday in the open market due to too much panic created  by the "Media Terrorists":

 

1. SWISS FINANCE CORP MAURITIUS LTD===> Sold 7786759 shares at Rs.74.61
2. ABERDEEN INTERNATIONAL INDIA OPPORTUNITIES FUND MAURITIUS LTD===>Sold 9830811 shares of the company at Rs.43.41
3. ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGERS LTD ABERDEEN GLOBAL ASIA PACIFIC FUND===>Sold 4179064 shares at Rs.43.41 

 

Hence it can be concluded from the above data that Majority of Fund Houses feel that Satyam Computers Ltd will be able to come out of the mess created by its Founder Chairman Mr. B Ramalinga Raju??!!

Moreover, Sukumar Rajah, chief investment officer (CIO) of equity in India at Franklin Templeton Investments, which manages $4 billion of assets in the country, said in an e-mail, “This unfortunate development will be a short-term negative for market sentiment,”. Still, by forcing regulators to improve oversight, the incident “should be a Long Term Positive,” Rajah said.

 

According to a well known and reputed financial web-site, developing-nation stocks are trading near their cheapest levels in a decade after the global economic slowdown and a slump in commodity prices sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down 54 percent in 2008. In comparison, the MSCI World Index dropped 42 percent. Shares in the MSCI emerging-markets index trade at 8.8 times reported earnings, while developed shares fetch 11.5 times profit. Sensex companies trade at 9.5 times earnings.

Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., Satyam’s largest institutional investor as of September, said its investment outlook for India hasn’t changed. Funds run by Aberdeen own at least 5.12 percent of Satyam, according the Hyderabad-based company’s filings for the quarter ended Sept. 31.

“People will grow a bit more dispassionate, but you can say the same for the U.S. and elsewhere,” said Hugh Young, managing director at Aberdeen’s Asian unit, which manages $37.3 billion. “India has great companies that do the right things. Hopefully this is a one off.” He declined to say how many Satyam shares Aberdeen holds, or whether any were sold recently.

India’s $1.2 trillion economy may grow 7 percent in the year ending March 31, the slowest pace since 2003, according to government forecasts. The economy may expand at close to that rate in the next fiscal year as the global recession cuts exports and domestic demand wanes, Junior Industry Minister Ashwani Kumar said in New Delhi yesterday.

To understand the mammoth-ness of Satyam Computers Services Ltd let us take note of the following facts: Satyam Computer Services Ltd, employs 53,000 people, operates in 65 countries and serves almost 700 companies, including 185 Fortune 500 companies. More than half of its revenue comes from the United States.

The most encouraging news came from www.cnn.com which writes: "Analysts say Satyam is ripe for a takeover, and the government is expected to submit a formal report on the matter Thursday".

Therefore, can we construe that those highly skilled stock market professionals, who have purchased some shares of Satyam Computers Ltd will have a field day in the next few months??!!

However, the most horrifying part of this event is that that cash balance that was non-existent got certified by one of most reputed auditors in the world map, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.  This reputed auditor of Satyam Computers Ltd’s, declined to comment on the scandal, according to an e-mail from the New York- based firm’s public relations adviser, Edelman.

I had earlier discouraged all my  Paid Clients not to enter Satyam Computers Ltd, when it fell to around Rs.179---I was anticipting something like this, from my exprience durring the dotocm boom-bust cycle in the 1990s and early 2000. But is it time to buy this stock at the CMP of Rs.39.95, for the short term gains??!!

 

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd: Accumulate on all declines;

BSE Code: 531746

Face Value: Rs.10

CMP: Rs.17.70

Book Value: Rs.152.34

EPS: Rs.17.87

P/E: 0.99

Dividend: 25%

Market Cap: Rs.70.26 Cr

Buying Price: The scrip should be bought above Rs.18.5

 

Company Background: Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (PESL) was promoted by Mr. Chandra Mohan Reddy. It’s a 25 years old partnership firm converted into a public limited company in the year 1994. It pioneers in construction activities in the twin cities of Hyderabad-Secunderabad. Its Key developments include residential flats, townships, shopping malls, office buildings and group housings.

The company has developed around 6.7 million square feet over the past twenty years across more than 75 projects and a further 10.7 million square feet of land is under various stages of development. Prajay has a significant presence in the hospitality segment also, with three landmark ventures in the city: Prajay's luxury resort, the Celebrity Holiday Retreat and the 30 room Celebrity Boutique Hotel (located 500 metres away from the airport). Prajay has been the leader in identifying new locations that are today of strategic importance, which has given it huge cost advantage.

 

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 16.42% while the general public holds, 83.58%. Among the general public FIIs hold a whooping 58.78% of the shares of the company.

 

 

Shareholding belonging to the category "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

Copthall Maritius Investment Ltd

1,808,085

4.55

2

Goldman Sachs Investment Mauritius Ltd

852,543

2.15

3

Citigroup Global Markets (Mauritius) Pvt Ltd

2,130,796

5.37

4

ABN Amro Bank N.V. London Branch

1,518,952

3.83

5

Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana S.A.S.V.

1,487,223

3.75

6

Morgan Stanley Investments Mauritius Ltd

617,200

1.55

7

Swiss Finance Corporation Mauritius Ltd

1,047,459

2.64

8

S Madhuri Reddy

410,000

1.03

9

N Ravinder Reddy

2,020,100

5.09

10

Merlin Securities Ltd

5,336,134

13.44

11

GRA Finance Corprate

457,701

1.15

12

Clsa Mauritius Ltd

1,361,942

3.43

13

ABN Amro Bank N.V. London Branch

424,211

1.07

14

 BSMA Ltd

760,000 

1.91 

15

 Deutsche Securities Mauritius Ltd

2,358,893 

5.94 

 

 Total

22,591,239 

56.91 

 

 

Financials:  Though for Q2FY09, the total income was almost flat the net profit of the company suffered due to higher expenditure and higher depreciation, as can be seen below. The fact that the interest cost was more or less flat comparing Q-o-Q was a good sign. Moreover, the tax component was also less in Q2FY09, as compared to the same quarter previous year. However, due to the downturn, the operating margin and net profit margin took a quantum hit. However, this is going to correct in the next few quarters, due to the fall in the price of raw materials, in the last few quarters and also due to seasonal demand.

 

Standalone Result of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd

 

Type

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Audited

 

Period Ending

30-Sep-08

30-Jun-08

31-Mar-08

31-Dec-07

30-Sep-07

31-Mar-08

 

No. of Months

3

3

3

3

3

12

 

Description

Amount (Rs. million)

 

Net Sales / Interest Earned / Operating Income

418.44

222.10

907.03

1,369.56

462.46

3,440.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Income

1.92

1.78

6.83

0.96

0.91

9.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Income

420.36

223.87

913.86

-

463.37

3,450.01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenditure

-270.24

-144.32

-904.12

-

-200.17

-2,061.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest

-27.06

-24.94

-11.61

-27.97

-27.69

-90.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit Before Depreciation and Tax

123.06

54.61

-1.87

-27.97

235.51

1,297.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depreciation

-9.11

-8.66

-7.89

-

-4.96

-22.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before Tax

113.95

45.96

-9.76

705.01

230.55

1,274.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax

-39.03

-15.92

-41.06

-49.75

-76.58

-246.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Profit

74.92

30.04

-50.82

655.26

153.97

1,028.67

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Capital

396.96

396.96

396.96

275.91

248.57

396.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic EPS after Extraordinary items

1.89

0.76

-1.85

25.47

6.58

37.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted EPS after Extraordinary items

1.89

0.76

-1.85

17.32

4.05

37.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nos. of Shares - Public

33,178,576.00

33,178,576.00

33,178,576.00

22,473,112.00

20,017,152.00

33,178,576.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Percent of Shares-Public

83.58

83.58

83.58

81.45

80.53

83.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Profit Margin

35.88

35.82

1.07

-

56.91

40.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Profit Margin

17.90

13.53

-5.60

47.84

33.29

29.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash EPS

2.12

0.97

-1.08

-

6.39

26.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

Notes

Notes

Notes

Notes

Notes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Highlights:

            The company earns 95% of its revenue from Real Estate and from Hospitality segment.

            In March 2007 the company posted a turnover of over Rs.2,000 million and profits of around Rs.800 million. It achieved Rs.1,000 million turnover in one quarter.

            Last year the company signed a joint venture with Sunway Group, Malaysia for development of residential condominiums projects in Hyderabad.

            Prajay Engineers' Land bank stands at approximately 850 acres 80% of which is in and around Hyderabad

            In the last twenty years of its existence, PESL has delivered 75 projects and developed around 6.7 million square feet.

 

Investment Rationale:

            The increased demand for residential units and commercial, office space for the IT and ITES companies suggest that the spurt will continue for years to come. An estimated inflow of Rs.5,508 billion investments in this sector will usher in development at a remarkable pace.

            Government thrust on infrastructure spending has given a tremendous boost to construction sector in terms of market size resulting in higher demand across the sector.

            Prajay Engineers Syndicate's base in the twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad offers it a myriad of opportunities in the real estate sector. The rapidly growing IT/ITES industry in Hyderabad has its roots in the proactive role of the state government pitching Hyderabad as the 'Hi-Tec' city of India.

            The Government's decision to launch Bio Tech Park and Fab City has further given a boost to technology driven growth in Hyderabad.

            The company currently has around 31 projects underway and plans to construct around 37.6 million square feet in the next four to five years. All projects have credit Rating of A+ by FIs.

            With its visionary approach and contemporary building practices, cutting edge management discipline, Prajay is at the forefront of imparting dynamism to infrastructure development industry.

            The company is foraying into Tier II cities of Andhra Pradesh like Vizag and Vijaywada, by FY10.

            The company want to invest around Rs.500-600 Cr in the coming years to develop the hospitality segment; to create 1000 room capacity by 2009 in the 5 star, 4-star and the 3- star business class categories; and to develop 31 projects including residential, commercial, retail and hospitality projects, aggregating to around 37.57 million square feet over the next five years.

            PESL’s 100% subsidiary Prajay Holdings, has received a commitment of FDI recently, to the tune of rupees equivalent of US $ 36 million for one of its prime projects at Hyderabad wherein a development of around 40 lac square ft has been planned by the company.

            The company is riding high on the real estate and infrastructure boom: it has set a target of reaching Rs.1000 crore turnover by FY10.

            Future Focus: Premium Apartments, Ultra-modern Townships, Development of Golf course, Independent premium bungalows, Development of 3 and 5 star hotels, Infrastructure development, Shopping Malls. These are all high volume and high margin activities.

 

Conclusion:

As the trend of spiraling growth continues, there are miles more to go, and further milestones to achieve. With 31 planned and ongoing projects, which will culminate into construction of around 38 million square feet and the residential segment comprising of about 84 percent of the total area under development, the company is expected to do well in future. The stock at the current market price provides an investment opportunity and one should invest in it taking a call for 12-15 months horizon for at least 50% from the CMP of Rs.17.7.

Chartical Indicators: For the short term, buy the scrip only if it closes above Rs.18.5 on a daily closing basis. The MACD and CCI are in perfect buy mode, while Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and Williams%R are also in buy mode.

Moreover, in the Candle Stick Chart Pattern, the inverted hammer, formation indicates that a significant decline has taken place in the stock price and the shorts are beginning to cover their positions---a very bullish indicator.

With this Candle Stick Chart Pattern, it is imperative to watch the next day's trading action. If the stock opens strong and remains strong during the day, then a key Reversal is likely in progress—a perfect time to bag the scrip.

 

Note: This stock was recommended to the Paid Groups in the Sunday Report of 30-11-08.