Sunday 8 March 2015

Karuturi Global Ltd: Buy
CMP: Rs.1.87
Face Value: Re.1
Book Value: Rs.16.61
Introduction: Banglore-based Karuturi Globa Ltd (KGL) is the largest producer of cut roses in the world, with are area of over 292 hectares under Greenhouse cultivation and an annual production capacity of around 555 million stems. Headquartered in India, the company has international offices located in Ethiopia, Kenya, Dubai and Holland. It exports products to countries namely Holland, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Bahrain, Muscat, Dubai, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Brunei and North America. 

Original PhotoMereja.com
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 5.52% while the general public holds 93.19%. In the general category, Elara India Opportunities Fund Ltd, Emerging India Focus Funds, Rays Global Corporation, Maxworth Investment Ltd, India Focus Cardinal Fund, Tara India Holdings A Ltd, and SRY Crust Ltd holds 7.54%, 4.56%, 5.06%, 5.06%, 3.51%, 3.36%, and 2.89% respectively. In fact these large shareholders hold 34.34% shares of the company. Therefore, low promoters' holding is  not an issue for the scrip. 

Financials: On a standalone basis, Karuturi Global reported a net loss of Rs.1.12 crore in the quarter ended December 2014 as against net profit of Rs.9.36 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2013. Sales rose 5.03% to Rs.3.34 crore in the quarter ended December 2014 as against Rs.3.18 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2013.

On the consolidated basis however in the December, 2014 quarter KGL posted a net profit of Rs.10.31 crore, an increase of 31.34%, as against Rs.7.85 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2013. Sales of the company, however, declined 61.3% to Rs.56.98 crore in the quarter from Rs.147.31 crore during the year-ago period. In the September, 2014 quarter, the company came out with a revenue of Rs.62.14 Cr and a net loss of Rs.8.51 lakhs, this is after adding exceptional item of Rs.154. Or else the loss would have been Rs.15.7 Cr in the Q2FY15. Hence, this is a turnaround case. 

Triggers
(i) Karuturi Globa Ltd is the largest producer of cut roses in the world, with are area of over 292 hectares under Greenhouse cultivation and an annual production capacity of around 555 million stems and hence it has the necessary size to withstand any slowdown in the sector. 
(ii) All of you are aware of the unfortunate developments in Kenya last year. Due to continued non-cooperation of various stake holders, Company was unable to complete consolidation of financials beyond 31.12.2013. The Company experienced extremely hostile situation and despite great efforts, found resistance in debt raising.
Now, the Company has found a sudden change of fortune with the Government of Ethiopia offering debt and christening the Company’s project as National Project. Also, the Company has generated significant liquidity with sale of surplus assets. Moreover, with the lower Oil price the Company expects a huge sustained saving in its freight cost. This, it is hoped, these development will more than compensate for the weaker Euro.
(iii) During the financial year 2013 -14, the Company was able to maintain its position in the Floriculture Industry during continued European Crisis which is its key market. The Company continued to make steady progress in its Agricultural foray developing Land in Ethiopia.
(iv) The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.16.61, while its P/E is only 3.74, as against the industry P/E of 42.88. It has a market cap of only Rs.151.42 Cr at Rs.1.87. A decent P/E re-rating of 15 can take the scrip to around Rs.5, after suitable discounting.
(v) The Company continued its efforts to develop the agriculture farm. Major crops expected are corn, pulses, sugarcane, oil seeds and paddy. Company has been focusing on wet cultivation during the monsoons. Agriculture during the dry seasons will be driven by construction of canals and implementation of over 90-high-performance pumps to draw water from the river Baro. Water supply will be further augmented by bore wells.
The Company works with expert farming companies from South America, USA, South Africa and India who have been contributing immensely to the farming operations in Gambella. Karuturi is synonymous with responsible and good business in Ethiopia.
(vi) The cut flower business had a stable beginning in CY15 with the Euro remaining more or less stable against the USD. This has added more visibility towards margins of the company. The weather conditions till now also remained helpful to the flower business.
The Company continued its efforts for sustainable initiatives like cutting edge biological controls like Phytoselius (Predatory Mites). It has eliminated spraying for two spotted red spider mites by 95%. Moving to Hydroponics resulted in 10% improvement in production with 30% reduction in consumption of water & fertilizers. 
(vii) The Company has established an earth worm project on an area of 2000 square meters and is consulting organic scientists from the University of Nairobi for further refining the leachate. This project has already reduced the fertilizer cost by 10-12%.The above efforts have considerably reduced the operational costs and are making floriculture business sustainable for a longer period. This has been seen in the Q3FY15 consolidated results of the company. 
(viii) Karuturi Foods Private Limited (KFPL) continued its efforts to maintain its top line in food processing. The Company continued its reach to Africa,Greece, South America and East European countries besides its main markets in Russia & Ukraine Regions. In FY16, the Company would continue its efforts to spread its market across various countries to reduce its dependency on Russia which is a very price sensitive and volatile market.
(ix) To strengthen the Agri Operations, the Company had gone to nontraditional Gherkin growing areas to improve the yield as well as to source higher volumes to avoid field competition.
The Company’s factory has been certified by BRC (British Retail Consortium) besides HACCP, FDA & KOSHER, as all customers expect these Certifications as a pre-requisite for placing the Orders with KFPL. 

Conclusion: Th Company has a strategic goal to bring a larger area under Agricultural Production and simultaneously continue to create new opportunities in its Floriculture and Food Processing businesses. Moreover, Karuturi Global Ltd (KGL) has received an approval from the board of directors to offload its 53% stake in Mumbai-based Florista India Pvt Ltd, which operates a chain of floral designing boutiques across India. Florista India was an unlisted subsidiary of KGL and disinvestment was a business strategy to bring in some working capital, though the net worth and annual turnover of this subsidiary was less than 1% of its (KGL's) net worth or annual turnover.

According to some web-portals KGL has signed a 50-year renewable lease on 300,000 hectares in Ethiopia where its rentals are $1 per hectare per year. The Company is in dialogue with World Bank to insure against political risk in Africa.



Looking at the above points it can be safely concluded that the shares of the company are trading at a discount to its intrinsic worth. The risk-taking investors are therefore suggested to buy the scrip at the CMP of Rs.1.87 and keep holding for a target of Rs.5+.

Note: This recommendation was sent to the Premium (Paid) Group Members on 5th March, 2015.

Tuesday 17 February 2015

Reliance Communications Ltd: Buy
CMP: Rs.75.10

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani-owned company, Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.75.10) which is India's fourth largest mobile phone operator by subscribers, reported an 85% jump in net profit for Q3FY15, boosted by lower cost of financing debt and as more of its subscribers used the pricier data services.

It posted a net profit of Rs.201 crore for the October-December period. Revenue rose 1.2% on year to Rs.4,799 crore. The company's net finance cost fell to Rs.652 crore from Rs.749.3 crore a year back. In May, Reliance Communications raised Rs 6,000 crore from a share sale to institutional investors to reduce its debt and ready itself for the upcoming airwave auction. It used funds raised from the sale of shares to institutional players to repay loans earlier this financial year.

According to the Economic Times, 14 February, 2015
The telecom industry in India has benefited from reduced competition ever since the Honorable Supreme Court cancelled 122 licences in February 2012, which allowed operators to cut down on promotional offers such as free-call minutes and raise effective call rates. Additionally, a surge in the use of smartphones has pushed up the use of premium high-margin data services. These have helped most telcos improve their key parameters such as average revenue per user (ARPU) and average realisation per minute (ARPM). The carrier's data customer base grew 5.7% to 31.4 million, of which 16.7 million were on its 3G services. Total data traffic increased 16.2% on quarter and 83.3% on year, due to a rise in data subscribers and higher data usage per customer, the company said. Data services offered at a premium and add to the spending per customer, making them more lucrative for telecom companies.
Reliance Communications had net debt of Rs.36,330 crore ($5.9 billion) at the end of September, 30, 2014, down from Rs.40,220 crore three months earlier, according to a company filing. 

The company may also bid in a government auction of wireless spectrum next month, which is expected to raise as much as $15.6 billion from service providers and put at risk their efforts to reduce borrowing, ICRA Ltd said in January. All licenses held by the company in the most popular 900 megahertz frequency band are up for renewal, according to the local arm of Moody’s Investors Service. 

Recently, there were media reports that  Reliance Communications has awarded a contract for technology overhaul of its business process outsourcing centres to US communications systems major Avaya for an undisclosed sum. A person familiar with the matter, however, said the contract may mean an outflow of Rs.400-500 crore for Reliance Communications (RCom) over three months, followed by about 15% of that to service it over the next three years. Under the agreement, Avaya will modernise tools, processes and best practices resulting in operational efficiencies by managing cost through consolidation.

Another person familiar with the deal said the move was in anticipation of work from Reliance Industries' Jio Infocomm. Reliance Communications Ltd (RCom) has a deal with Mukesh Ambani-owned Jio, under which RCom will manage the call centre operations for Jio. The Jio agreement also said RCom would upgrade its technology and fibre for the purpose. At the moment, RCom uses its legacy IVR, or interactive voice response system. Technology today allows more efficient approaches to ensure fewer drops and call back options to maintain continuity of conversation.

Facebook has tied up with Reliance Communications to offer free access to subscribers of Anil Ambani-led firm to the social networking site as well as about three-dozen general information websites. Besides accessing Facebook, RCom subscribers can also access 33 websites offering news and information on weather, jobs, government services, and health without incurring data charges.
Reliance Communications Ltd, part of the Anil Ambani-led group, which is the global telecom sponsor of the ICC World Cup 2015, has partnered with Twitter to provide its customers with a platform to follow the global commentary as the world's 14 best cricketing nations compete for the tag of the champion team, with no data charges. Customers who do not have a Twitter account can also access cricket-related Tweets by logging on to www.rcom.co.in/cricket on their mobile phones throughout the duration of this global event -- from Feb 13 to March 31, 2015, a company statement said here Tuesday. 
India's Reliance Industries  and seven other firms including top mobile phone operator Bharti Airtel  have applied to participate in next month's auction for mobile phone airwaves, several people directly involved in the process said.
The total spectrum put to auction is 103.75 MHz in 800 MHz band, 177.8 MHz in 900 MHz band and 99.2 MHz in 1,800 MHz band – a total of 380.75 MHz in 800, 900 and 1,800 MHz. The government will also put on sale 5 MHz in the 2,100 MHz band, which is used for 3G services in 17 out of 22 telecom areas.

The reserve price approved is Rs.3,646 crore pan-India per MHZ in 800 MHz, Rs.3,980 crore for 900 MHz band pan-India ; and Rs.2,191 crore pan-India in 1,800 MHz band.

The government also approved a reserve price of Rs.3,705 crore per megahertz for third generation services.

According to reports, the government expects to mop up Rs.75,000-Rs.100,000 crore from the auction which was mandated after the so-called 2G scam following the previous UPA government’s junking the auction system for a first-come-first-serve basis spectrum distribution that led to charges of large-scale corruption and eventual fall of the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Auction of telecom spectrum due March 4 may may increase call and data charges, experts have opined.

All these makes Reliance Communications Ltd as one of the most happening stocks in the telecom sector.. The scrip should cross Rs.100, within the next six months. The investors are strongly suggested to buy the stock at the CMP of Rs.75.10, for a short term target of Rs.84-97. This could be another Pipavav Defense and Offshore Eng Ltd (Rs.69.10), which was recommended on September 28, 2014 at Rs.38.75; after which it made a 52-week high of Rs.74.40 on 12/02/2015.

Wednesday 28 January 2015

Firstsource Solutions: Buy in Bulk
CMP: Rs.29.35
Firstsource Solutions Ltd is a global provider of customized BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) services to the Banking & Financial Services, Insurance, Telecommunications, Media and Publishing and Healthcare sectors. The company’s clients include Fortune 500, FTSE 100 & Nifty 50 companies. Firstsource has a “rightshore” delivery model with operations in India, Philippines, Sri Lanka, UK and U.S.

Prime Triggers: 
(i) Firstsource Solutions’ wholly owned subsidiary - Firstsource Group USA, Inc., has successfully
made its seventh quarterly repayment of $11.25 million on its outstanding debt on December 31, 2014.
(ii) According to the latest shareholding pattern, the promoters' holding in the company stood at 56.25% (controlling stake), while ICICI Bank Ltd, the ace investor, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Goldman Sachs India Fund Ltd holds 4.85%, 3.76% and 1.27% respectively. FIIs hold 8.25% of the shares of the company.
(iii) It is from the reputed RP-Sanjib Goenka group, who are also the promoters of CESC Ltd (Calcutta Electric Supply Corporation, the flagship company of the RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group). In 2012, the Kolkata-based CESC Ltd (RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group) agreed to pay around Rs.400 crore for a 49.5% holding in the ICICI-promoted BPO firm, paving the way for the partial exit of existing shareholders ICICI Bank, private equity firm Temasek and Metavante Investments. Now, Firstsource Solutions Ltd is a step-down subsidiary of CESC Ltd. It is pertinent to mention here that, Sanjiv Goenka's brother Harsh owns mid-sized IT services provider, the BSE and NSE listed Zensar Technologies Ltd.
(iv) India-based BPOs have been steadily moving up the value chain as low-value call centre operations move to locations such as the Philippines. In the immediate future, impending healthcare reforms in the US and Banking reforms in India, are likely to give BPOs like Firstsource a boost.
(v) In November, 2014, there were media reports that Anand Rathi, which has the stock among its high conviction ideas, believes with the interest-cost burden lightening because of debt repayments, and focus shifting to accelerating growth, return ratios could improve.
(vi) Over the past two years, the company has been trying hard to go up the value chain by going beyond the low cost offerings. The company's revenue growth expected to gain momentum as the company concentrated on growing revenues and improving profitability by weeding out low cost contracts and undertaking price increases. The elevation of Rajesh Subramaniam — who was part of the founding team — as CEO and acquisition of majority stake by the Sanjeev Goenka group were seen as big positives.
(vii) On the back of improved margin Firstsource Soultions, the IT arm of  the R P Sanjiv Goenka group, reported a 36.8% rise in net profit at Rs.61.2 crore for the quarter ended September, 2014 compared to a net profit of Rs.44.8 crore during the corresponding period last year. The Business Process Management (BPM) services company’s net sales for the period declined 2.1 per cent to Rs.774 crore, against Rs.790 crore. “Our focus has entirely been on bottom-line growth. We have closed a number of loss making accounts, beside other cost cutting measure,” said Sanjiv Goenka, chairman, RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group.
(viii) The company has won deals worth $45 million in the September 2014 quarter, up from $36 million signed in the June 2014 quarter. Revenue from top clients also grew at a healthy pace of 4.8% Q-o-Q, while revenues from the top five clients declined marginally. With the large telecom client walking away, analysts have cut their forecasts for the current year. However, a strong deal pipeline will ensure better growth for the company in FY16. The company has indicated that it expects growth to pick up pace in FY16. Sharekhan says the company has  indicated that the topline would grow seven-eight per cent y-o-y in FY16, even as growth in FY15 would be impacted by vendor consolidation and client ramp downs.
(viii) Though the turnaround has been delayed, analysts believe that the growth in the coming years would be better than the last few years, as the company has strong capabilities in the telecom and healthcare vertical. Also, the company is looking at launching product platforms, which would improve revenue potential of the company. According to Sharekhan, which has a buy on the stock, the stock trades at a reasonable valuations.
(ix) In November, 2014, there were media reports which quoted, Mahantesh Sabarad, Deputy Head of Research at SBI Capital Securities who said, he is bullish on Firstsource Solutions. He said: "It  is a rare kind of IT stock which has debt on its book. We will see that increasingly as the business goes ahead and they have been signing good amounts of deal, for example this quarter gone by, they have signed deals worth USD 45 million, the quarter before it was somewhere around USD 31-33 million." "Increasing deal wins, good amount of cash flow coming in and deleveraging of balance sheet is the story on Firstsource and that is why we like the stock, Rs.55 is the price target in the stock," he said.
(x) The Hindu Business Line gave a buy on 8 September, 2014:
Firstsource Solutions (FSL) is a leading global provider of customised business process management (BPM) services to the healthcare, telecom and media and banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI). The company has over 100 global clients including 21 Fortune 500 and 9 FTSE 100 companies. After a difficult F10-12 period, the company has shown a resolute recovery over F13-F14 aided by a fresh lease of life from their new owners. We believe, the company can a) catapult itself to cover lost ground; b) set it on an elevated revenue growth path from 2HF15e onwards; c) flag down an improvement in margins; and d) recompense it with superior free cash flows (FCFs). All this while FSL would shrink its debt pile making a strong investment case in its favour.
Key risk: Impairment of goodwill from past acquisitions that exceeds networth, could impede valuation uptick.

Caution: The business process outsourcing (BPO) sector has been facing headwinds over recent years. The industry was faced with rising competitive intensity, on one hand, and pricing pressures on the other. Firstsource Solutions Ltd has been battling with these problems in the past couple of years and the ill-timed acquisition of Med Assist at $330 million in 2007. The company has been trying for a turnaround over the past two years, as revenues and margins fell to eight per cent and Ebit margin fell to four per cent in FY12. After the September quarter numbers, some analysts have cut the company's earnings estimates as the turnaround is expected to be delayed.
In the September quarter, Firstsource reported a sequential revenue growth of 2.4 per cent but a year-on-year decline of 2.1 per cent to Rs.774 crore. Analysts claim this is below estimates as a large client walked away. Along with disappointing revenue growth, EBIT margins too were below estimates at 10% and remained flat q-o-q sequentially. Emkay Global has cut its FY15/16 earnings per share estimates by eight to 10% to Rs.3.6/4.7, respectively, as the brokerage is factoring in lower revenue growth and operating margin assumptions for both years.
However, even at an EFY15, EPS of Rs.3.6-4.7 (worst case scenario), the share should be trading around Rs.40-45, against the CMP of Rs.29.35.

Conclusion: The shares of the company might have made a temporary bottom on the candle-stick chart. Q4 (March Quarter) is typically a high margin and a high revenue quarter for the BPO business and hence the investors are suggested to buy the scrip of Firstsource Solutions Ltd in Bulk and keep holding for sometime; to get one of the best returns. The short term target for the scrip is Rs.34, while the SL is Rs.27

Wednesday 21 January 2015

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemical Ltd: Buy
CMP: Rs.48.95
At the loading of MRPL’s first International solid cargo of Sulphur at Jetty #3 NMPT.
Introduction:
Please Click on the Photo to Expand
MRPL, a schedule ‘A’ CPSE and a subsidiary of ONGC is a State of Art Grassroot Refinery located in a beautiful hilly terrain, north of Mangalore city, in Dakshin Kannada region. The Refinery has got a versatile design with high flexibility to process Crudes of various API and with high degree of Automation.
MRPL has a design capacity to process 15 million metric tons per annum and have 2 Hydrocrackers producing Premium Diesel (High Cetane). It also has 2 CCRs producing Unleaded Petrol of High Octane.

Shareholding Pattern
The promoters hold 88.58%, while the general pubiic holds only 11.42%. Among the general catagory, the
institutions hold 3.64%, FIIs hold 0.67% and DIIs hold 2.97% of the shares of the company. In fact the FIIs' holding has increased marginally both on Q-o-Q basis and sequentially. The non-institutions  hold only 7.78% shares of the company leaving very little shares in the open market for trade.

Triggers: 
    • In December, the Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) entered into a MoU with
      STC Mauritius and Indian Oil Corp (IOC) to set up a petroleum terminal at Mauritius. The JV terminal would be constructed at an investment of around $130 million to facilitate re-export of petroleum products from Mauritius to Indian Ocean Islands and mainland Africa.
    • The company has fully commissioned all units of phase-III, other than polypropylene unit, which will be fully functional by the March quarter of FY15. With that the phase-III expansion will be completed. 
    • The completion of phase-III expansion of the refinery, single-point mooring system near New Mangalore Port, and facilities at OMPL (ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals Ltd) are some of the recent milestones achieved by the company. Moreover, the first dispatch of OMPL product has gone from the company to respective customers in Q3FY15. MRPL is also one of the stakeholders in the OMPL project.  All these milestones would help improve the refining margin of the company. This will help bring better returns for stakeholders. 
    • The company initially had plans of setting up of retail outlets. Accordingly, its BOD had approved the proposal for the establishment 122 outlets a few years ago. However, the company is not implementing, at the present moment, because it needs to revalidate that decision within its own team. 
    • The commissioning of single-point mooring system near New Mangalore Port last year has helped the company to bring crude oil in bigger vessels.
    • MRPL reported not so encouraging GRMs both in Q1FY15 and Q2FY15. This may come to end in the coming quarters as the phase III expansion completes and the plant stabilizes. Historically, MRPL has reported higher and more stable GRMs than the other PSU refineries. Now with most issues easing away and most of the secondary units getting commissioned by FY15E, the GRMs of MRPL is likely to bounce back in the coming years. 
    • MRPL's Phase III is in the final stage of completion and is expected to be fully commissioned soon, as mentioned above. This refinery expansion & upgradation project at Mangalore includes: - (1) capacity addition of 3 MMTPA and upgradation project (2) polypropylene unit and (3) single point mooring (SPM) facility. 
    • During Q1FY15, the company commissioned the delayed coker unit (DCU), that will crack the residual fuel oil into gasoil and petcoke, coker hydro treater unit (removes sulphur impurities from diesel) & two out of three SRU units. The PFCC (converts vacuum gasoil to propylene) & one train of SRU are expected has already been commissioned last year (CY14). Higher complexity on commissioning of Phase III project will lead to an increase in distillate yield from 76.5% to 80.1%, better capability to handle heavier & sourer crude and production of higher margin value-added products. 
    • This month, MRPL announced that it moved its very first international solid cargo of Sulphur aboard MV Dusita Naree from NMPT Jetty #3. The loading of the 16500MT of ‘solid Sulphur’ headed to ZHENJIANG Port in China, commenced on 2nd Jan 2015 and was completed by 6th January 2015. The customer, M/s Mitsui& Co had bid online for the 16500MT of ‘solid Sulphur’ generated from the Phase I, II &III Sulphur Recovery Units of MRPL. Solid Sulphur is the by-product of the process by which desulphurization of auto-fuels is carried out to make these fuels environment-friendly EURO grade products. MRPL today manufactures EURO IV grade of petrol/diesel and is equipped for commercial production of EURO V. At a time of increasing concern at the potential for oversupply in the sulphur industry, particularly because of the increases in China’s sulphur capacity, the MRPL shipment is positive news for the sector and shows that China is still a key customer for the mineral.
    • Overall, MRPL has lower policy leverage and lowest gearing on the balance sheet amongst PSU refineries. Moreover, the fuel loss which was a drag during the last few quarter may come down in the immediate future due to commissioning of new projects. This will lead to better GRMs.
    Conclusion: Looking at the daily candle stick chart we find that the the stock has given a clear break-out above Rs.48.7. The scrip even closed above its 21D, SMA and EMA. 
    This stock therefore, becomes a must buy for the investors at the current price of Rs.48.95. We can look forward for a target of Rs.55-62, in the coming days. The short term traders can keep a SL of Rs.45.

    Sunday 4 January 2015

    Anant Raj Ltd: Buy
    CMP: Rs.47.55
    Short Term Target: Rs.56.
    Technology Park, Manesar, Haryana
    Introduction: Anant Raj Limited, formerly Anant Raj Industries Limited (Anant Raj), is a construction and infrastructure developers in North India. The Company has built five million square feet of commercial space at Delhi. The Company has two information technology (IT) parks, one IT special economic zone (SEZ), three commercial complexes, two Shopping Malls and five Hotel projects. In January 2012, the Company launched Anant Raj Estates-an integrated township spread over 100 acres at Sector 63A in Gurgaon, Haryana. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012 (fiscal 2012), the Company acquired approximately 225 Acres of land in Gurgaon, Manesar, Sonepat in Haryana, Delhi, and Neemrana, Rajasthan. The Company also has land in Gurgaon, Manesar, Sonepat and Neemrana. During 2012, it launched residential projects, which included Anant Raj Aashray, Anant Raj Estates, Plotted Development, Independent Floors and Villas.

    Shareholding PatternThe promoters hold a whooping 63.44% of the shares of the company while the
    general public holds 36.38%. Among the general public FIIs hold 14.70% while the DIIs hold 2.12% of the shares of the company. The non-institutions hold only 19.56% of the shares of the company. Among the public the Government of Singapore holds 4.20 percent while the BIG BULL Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala holds  2.54 percent stake in the company.

    Financials: The company came out with good set of numbers for the September, 2015 quarter. On a standalone baisi, the total income of the company zoomed to Rs.189.75 Cr, in Q2FY15 as against Rs.95.84 Cr in the same period previous year. The PBT of the company shot up to Rs.128.16 Cr in the September, 2015 quarter as against Rs.33.13 Cr in th same period previous year. The net profit of the company in the September 2014 quarter came out to be Rs.101.02 Cr as against Rs.25.24 Cr in Q2FY14.
    On a consolidated basis, the total income of the company for Q2FY15 came out to be Rs.194.72 Cr (Rs.100.2 Cr) and net profit of the company for Q2FY15 came out to be Rs.102.64 Cr.(Rs.29.42 Cr).

    Triggers:
    • The company today owns almost 6 million sq.ft of ready commercial space of which 32% is leased 
      Please Click on the Photo/s to Expand
      yielding a rental income of Rs.77 Cr annually. India is still amongst the lowest rental markets globally for commercial space. However, with sentiments improving and the expected upturn in the real-estate space, the Company is poised to lease out as much as 60-80 per cent of the commercial space in the next 4-5 years, with a rental income potential of Rs.250-300 crores at present rental rates. The higher rental income will also help Company reduce its debt further and faster. 
    • The economy is looking optimistic, the new government is positive and the real estate sector is rebounding. From low-cost homes (affordable housing) to super luxury villas, from residential townships to SEZs, from IT Parks to Hotel properties, its expansion plan for the next five spans the width and depth of the real estate space. 
    • Its renewed focus on the residential over the last three-four years has seen us acquire land, a majority of which is in the high-end residential pocket of Gurgaon. Its show-case project – Anant Raj Estate at Sector 63A in South Gurgaon is spread over 160 acres with a total developable area of approximately 6 million sq. ft. The Anant Raj Estate project alone is expected to add Rs.5,000 crores to the Company’s total revenues over the next five years. Booking for Anant Raj Estate have already crossed Rs.700 crores and the management is confident that this project will emerge as one of its most successful residential developments.
    • The company has also received a group housing license for another 26 acres of land at Sector 63A for residential group housing development. The development potential of this project is approximately 2 million sq.ft.
    • In addition to these projects, the management is confident of completing its on-going residential projects – Maceo and Madelia within FY 2016. These two projects will add a further 2.7 million sq.ft. to our total residential properties. In total, its expansion in the residential projects space alone is over 10million sq. ft. within the next five years!
    • The Company has proven its prowess in undertaking a lowcost (affordable) housing project - Anant Raj Aashray at Neemrama in Rajasthan. This 2,580 units project comprises of eco-friendly, recycled and energy efficient low cost homes developed in partnership with the Government of Rajasthan. Aimed at first-time buyers around the Rajasthan-Haryana border area in the RIDCO, these flats were attractive priced at Rs.8.2 lacs. The project was completed in record time, and flats are being handed over to the delight of both buyers as well as the Government of Rajasthan.
    • With the new land ceiling laws, private industrial township projects have opened up a new strategic expansion area for Anant Raj. Private Industrial Township projects are also a priority area for the new government as a part of its larger thrust on infrastructure development. The company is planning to built further on this success by undertaking larger projects of Industrial Townships. At these Industrial Townships, it hopes to leverage its comprehensive expertise and experience and provide all infrastructure and logistics support. In addition, it also plans to develop low-cost projects within these Industrial Townships. Plans are underway to commence its Industrial Township project at Manesar in Haryana. Spread over a land area of 75 acres. This project will consists of industrial,commercial and residential zones. 
    • With the recent increase in Floor Area Ratio (FAR), the hospitality sector is witnessing a renewed interest from international hotel chains. The company has a substantial land bank of ready-to-develop hotels with all approvals in place. At Dhumaspur in Gurgaon, the company is to develop its 10 acre land parcel with a resort project. This project would have a constructed area of 0.65 million sq. ft. with approximately 400 rooms. The company has four hotel properties under operation generating revenue and two more properties are ready to be leased out. In addition, it still has eight more properties with approvals in place.
    • The Company has completed Phase 1 of IT Park at Panchkula in Haryana and many offices have already started functioning.
    • The board of Anant Raj Industries, one of the leading in construction and infrastructure developers in North India, very recently approved the sale of 100% equity stake in its wholly owned subsidiary Greatway Estates. The sale of subsidiary is for a consideration of Rs 3.04 billion (Rs.304 Cr). The consideration received shall be utilised partly for repayment of debt and partly for development of the projects of the company. Anant Raj, which had a debt of Rs.1,400 crore as on March 31, 2014, is looking to sell its hotel properties across Delhi and land parcels to pare debt. It posted a net profit of Rs.100.38 crore on net revenue of Rs.483 crore for the financial year 2013-14. In its latest annual report, Ashok Sarin, chairman, Anant Raj, said, “...the company is determined to reduce the debt further in the next couple of years and is considering sale of one or two of its hotel properties and/or hospitality land parcels.” Like many other real estate developers, Anant Raj Ltd has also taken the route of selling non-core assets and land parcels to bring down debt level.
    Conclusion:  The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.132.85 against the CMP of Rs.47.55. Moreover, it has a P/E of 8.89 against the industry P/E of 27.72. Therefore, a decent P/E re-ratating can take the scrip to above Rs.70, in the short term. The scrip is also looking attractive on the candle stick chart too. At the CMP of Rs.47.55, it is  a must buy scrip for every investor. 

    Pick of the Week:

    Kernex Microsystems India Ltd: Basking on Huge land Holdings:

    BSE Code: 532686
    CMP: Rs.82.6

    Book Value: Rs.105.43

    Market Cap: Rs.103.25 Cr

     

    Introduction: Established in 1991 and registered as 100% Export Oriented Unit with Software Technology Parks of India, Department of Electronics, Govt. of India, New Delhi, it is a ISO 9001:2000 certified company with expertise in Software, Hardware development and Systems Integration. It is presently engaged in the business of manufacturing, installing and maintaining of anti-collision systems as well as conceptualizing, designing, and developing certain railway safety and signal systems for Konkan Railways Corporation Ltd. These safety and signal systems are suitable for medium to low speed & density railway tracks like in India and other developing countries.

    The company entered into a technology partnership with Konkan Railway Corporation Ltd, Navi Mumbai for design, engineering and development of anti-collision systems which provides safety to trains in Railways. It holds exclusive license for manufacturing, installation, commissioning and maintenance of anti-collision systems in India. It also has an outsourced facility for the Konkan Railways Corporation Ltd for manufacture and supply of ACDs and related accessories. It is also a technology partner for the development and implementation of ADDs for Metro Sky-Bus Urban Transportation System, Advanced Railway Signal Systems and other safety systems. It holds exclusive marketing rights of ACD systems all over the world except India.

    Based on the concept and domain knowledge provided by Konkan Railway Corporation Ltd, it has developed the networked Anti-Collision Devices, using Global Positioning System, Radio Data Communication, Application Logics and Inter facing these with an Auto Breaking System developed by KRCL. With operations in USA and planned operations in Far East, Africa and Middle East, Kernex is truly a global player in the offing.

     

    Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 55.74% while the general public holds 44.26%. Moreover FII hold 1.55%, while mutual funds/UTI holds 1.11%.

     

    Shareholding belonging to the category
    "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

     

    Sl. No.

    Name of the Shareholder

    No. of Shares

    Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

    1

    SMS Holdings Pvt Ltd

    273,181 

    2.19 

    2

    Somerset Emerging Opportunities Ltd

    193,217 

    1.55 

    3

    Enam Investment Services Pvt Ltd

    137,500 

    1.10 

    4

    UTI Mid Cap Fund

    139,156 

    1.11 

    5

    Vinaya Kumar Gavini

    160,267 

    1.28 

    6

    Challa Subrahmanay Sarma

    186,212 

    1.49 

     

     Total

    1,089,533 

    8.72 

     

     

    Financials: For Q1FY10, the company came out with flat topline and a slightly subdued bottomline. The total income of the company for Q1FY10 came out to be Rs.5.82 Cr as against Rs.5.97 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q1FY10 dipped due to higher interest and tax component to Rs.52.3 lakhs as against Rs.1.07 Cr in the same period previous year.

     

    Triggers:

    1. The company would benefit from the Indian Railway’s move to focus more on signal modernization and increased usage of automated signaling systems. Kernex Microsystems (India), the Hyderabad-based railway safety product manufacturer is the only player in anti-collision devices for the Railways and is set to capitalize on the public sector transporter’s thrust on ‘safety’.
    2.  Kernex Microsystem last year announced to foray into infrastructure projects and power sector, the two most happening sectors of today.
    3. The company has redrawn its plans to carry on the expansion programme, wherever required, as against plans mentioned in the prospectus dated December 6, 2005 in regard to scheduled time of completion. However, establishment of new manufacturing centre for ACID, ADDS and Advanced Signal Systems, construction of various buildings, including machinery & external services, electrical supply, roads, sewage &  compound  walls, gates  and  other related security arrangements and also training centre, cafeteria and transit accommodation for trainees, R&D Block, administration and  manufacturing  facility is nearing completion.
    4. The Phase-1 of development of ACD systems has been completed and pilot project commissioned in the Q1FY10. Railways have accepted the ACD system for deployment in all the Railways. Orders are expected through Konkan Railways Corporation for Southern, South Central and South Western Railways in the near future.
    5. Honourable Railway Minister during the Railway Budget speech on 26th February, 2008, stated that ACD is found working satisfactory and therefore, proposed to be deployed in South Central and South Western and Southern Railways.  According to Railways Corporate Safety Plan, ACD deployment is to be completed all over Indian Railways by 2013-2014. This is music to the investors in Kernex Micro Systems.
    6. The Company has signed a contract in November, 2008 with Egyptian National Railways, Egypt for development and supply of 136 Semi-Automatic Level crossing Gates. The Contract is under execution.
    7. Its unique product, Multi-Section Digital Axle Counter has been developed under technical collaboration on schedule time and is under cross approval by RDSO, Lucknow, Indian Railways. It is to be noted that the company earlier dropped the product called TAWD, consequent to the dropping of the same by the Indian Railways, in view of anticipated huge demand for the product called 'Digital Axle Counter’.
    8. Its R&D Division has done number of improvements and changes in the application software and hardware as required by the Konkan Railway Corporation. This includes AMSS, upgradation of ACD Reporting System & ACD survey automation system.
    9. The company’s International Marketing division continued marketing operation for selling the ACD and related systems in Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Pakistan, Australia and South Asian countries. Consequently the ACD System is short listed as one of the viable system for Egyptian Railways. South African Railways is also examining the possibility of integrating the ACD system with OBC system already installed in South African Railways, spoornet.
    10. The company has also been working on development of 'Multi Section Digital Axle Counter’ in collaboration with M/s Altpro, Zerob, Croatia.  Complete test data, technical details, company details and Safety case has been submitted to RDSO, Indian Railways. Discussions with Altpro, to jointly manufacturing the product and KMIL to Market the product to Indian Railways is in progress. Meanwhile M/s Altpro, Croatia has appointed Kernex as their Sole technology partner  / Altpro Agent / Joint Venture partner in Indian subcontinent  for their  product  range like Digital Axle Counter,  Train  detection  System, ATPS, SIFA, incident recorder and for other safety system.
    11. The company has entered into technology partnership with Tiffien Batch, Germany for providing Automatic & Semi Automatic Level crossing system, up to Sit 3 levels. This  should  help  Kernex  to  enter  into International markets in semi developed and under developed countries  like Africa  and South Fast Asia and Australia for the supply a  Level  Crossing Systems.
    12. The  company  has so far purchased over 243 Acres of land at  the  Warangal highway  near  Yadagirigutta and has also acquired over 157 Acres  land  at Amanagul,  Mehboobnagar  district and acquisition of further Land,  in  the area  is planned.  All equipments required for this project have been fully acquired. In case of SPAD, planning is in progress and the project is expected to be completed by Dec, 2009 as against the revised scheduled month of June, 2008. This is due to delay in finalization of specifications and requirements by Indian Railways.
    13. The development of Hot Box and Wheel Vibration Detection systems is in progress and is expected to be completed by 31st Dec, 2009 as against the revised scheduled month of Nov, 2008. This is due to delay in finalization of specifications. Another opportunity waiting in the wings is the provision of ATP system for Metro Trains that are planned in major cities of the country.  With technological collaboration, the company can become one of the important players in this field too.
    14. New Offices of the company are being established in Delhi, Chennai.  Guntakal and Hubli based on the release of new orders and also central survey centre at Hyderabad. Other  locations  will  be  taken up  in  phased  manner  as  per  the commencement of work ordered by Indian Railways. Kernex Microsystems (India) set up a 100% subsidiary in the US in September 2000 to implement software products of the company in that country. It is now engaged in developing and implementing software for the US corporate hospitals.

     

    Concerns:

    • The biggest threat the company faces is from Multi Nationals, who want to sell their equipment in India. To gel over this competition, the Company is upgrading the technology at a fast pace.
    • Any delay in decision making, administrative and departmental procedures could delay the receipt of orders, making its facilities idle and under productive.

     

     

    Chart Check and Conclusion: Considering the points mentioned above the stock could be purchased at the CMP of Rs.82.6 for 6 months to 9 months time frame for at least 50% appreciation from the current price. Moreover, an encouraging fact is that the promoters are technocrats and have wide experience in electronics/software industries, both in India and abroad and hence they possess a deep understanding of the business of the company. Another point which is worth noting is that the stock is trading below its book value of Rs.105.43

    Now from the charts it has been found that the stock is in highly oversold territory and a small bounce cannot be ruled out in the short term. Though Bollinger bands are in buy mode however, other momentum parameters are still not giving an immediate buy for the scrip. Also, though the MACD is not giving an immediate buy signal but it could slowly drift towards the buy mode. The stock needs to close above Rs.85 on closing basis, to start rising again. If it crosses Rs.95 which looks probable the stock could touch as high as Rs.130. Please keep a SL of Rs.67 for any short term trade.

    Pick of the week

    DECCAN CHRONICLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

    BSE Code: 532608

    Face Value: Rs.2

    CMP: Rs.37.85

    EPS: Rs.5.5

    P/E: 6.88

    Dividend: 150%

    Book Value: Rs.43.58

    Market Cap: Rs.926.86 Cr

    52-Week High/Low: Rs.224/Rs.36.15

     

    Introduction: Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd, erstwhile Deccan Chronicle was formerly engaged in weekly and daily journals in Andhra Pradesh. The company acquired a news paper publishing business in December 2002; post which it established a strong foothold in the state. The company aims to be the leading publishing house in the country.

    Deccan Chronicle, the flagship newspaper of the company is the leading English daily in Hyderabad and Andhra Pradesh. It publishes seven editions of the Deccan Chronicle in Andhra Pradesh from their printing presses located at Hyderabad/Secunderabad, Vijayawada, Rajahmundry, Vishakapatnam, Anantapur, Karimnagar and Nellore. It is the fourth largest circulated and read English daily in India. Besides Deccan Chronicle, the Company also publishes Andhra Bhoomi in Telugu (daily, weekly and monthly).

    Deccan Chronicle covers latest local, regional, national and international news. The newspaper also provides business, sports, weather, city culture, beauty, and health related news and information through its online portal.

     

    Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 63% while the general public’s holding is 37%. Among the non-promoters are a number of Mutual Fund houses which holds substantial stake in the company.

    Shareholding belonging to the category
    "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

     

    Sl. No.

    Name of the Shareholder

    No. of Shares

    Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

    1

     EQ Advisors Trust - EQ/VQN Kqmpen Emerging Markets

    2,715,990 

    1.11 

    2

     Deutsche India Equity Fund

    3,166,001 

    1.29 

    3

     Merrill Lynch India Equities Fund Mauritius Ltd

    3,542,473 

    1.45 

    4

     Ward Ferry Management Ltd A/C WF Asian Smaller

    4,268,064 

    1.74 

    5

     Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc A/c Morgan

    3,888,224 

    1.59 

    6

     Life Insurance Corporation of India

    3,429,892 

    1.40 

    7

     Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund A/c Franklin India

    3,200,000 

    1.31 

    8

     Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund A/c Morgan Stanley Growth

    3,675,000 

    1.50 

     

     Total

    27,885,644 

    11.39 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     Financials: For Q3FY09, the company came out with almost flat topline and subdued bottomline, due to general downturn in the world economy.

    The total income of the company for Q3FY09 rose to Rs.228.3 Cr as against Rs.226.5 Cr in the same period previous year. Deccan Chronicle Holdings’ third quarter net profit fell 75% to Rs25.67 crore over the corresponding period a year ago. The net profit of the company for Q3FY09 came out to be Rs.25.7 Cr as against Rs.102.94 Cr in the same period previous year. For the nine-month period ended 31 December, Deccan Chronicle posted a net profit of Rs131.92 crore, a 51% decline from Rs269.29 crore last year.

    The operating and net profit margins of the company decreased considerably Y-o-Y. The net profit suffered due to high raw material price (Rs.129.04 Cr in Q3FY09 as against Rs.82 Cr], higher staff cost (Rs.13.53 Cr in Q3FY09 as against Rs.6.53 Cr), and almost doubling of other expenditure (Rs.17.73 Cr as against Rs.9.8Cr). However with the government expected to come out with special package for the media sector, the company’s top and bottomline could change dramatically on the positive side.

     

    Investment Rationale:

    • Advertisement, the main growth driver: Advertisement is the key revenue driver in the Indian newspaper giant. DCHL’s advertisement revenue accounts for nearly 80%-90% of the total revenue. The media industry, both print and electronic, is facing the impact of the global financial crisis in the form of decline in advertisement revenue. However, representatives of the print media had already approached the I & B ministry seeking an upward revision in rates of government advertisements. The government has almost assured to some stimulus package to the media industry and to tide over the situation.
    • Foray into new business: The Deccan Chronicle group has floated an international cargo airline company “Flyington Freighters Ltd”. The new company, which will start services from July this year, has placed orders for purchase of six A330-200F cargo planes from Airbus at a cost of $175 million each. While the aircraft delivery is slated for 2009-2010, Airbus has agreed to lease two aircraft to the company in the mean time.
    • Launching New Editions: In the middle of last year, Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd launched its Mumbai Edition of "Financial Chronicle" in association with the "International Herald Tribune". During the year, 2008, DCHL entered the Business daily market by launching its newest print offering, Financial Chronicle simultaneously from Hyderabad and Chennai and extended its presence in Bangalore and Mumbai recently. Also, it announced a tie up with International Herald Tribune for launching its branded 'World Business Section' inside Financial Chronicle. The Mumbai edition of the Financial Chronicle would have four pages of IHT's World Business Section and its logo would be put on the front page of the daily. But one should remain cautiously optimistic on DCHL's foray into this space as it is already crowded with several offerings by other big Print Media houses. During May 2008, the company finally launched its much awaited Bangalore edition of Deccan Chronicle.
    • Strengthening its base in Southern India: The company had already launched the Bangalore edition of Deccan Chronicle and approved an initial investment of Rs.25 Cr in addition to the use of existing assets in other locations.
    • Inorganic expansion: The company is expanding its reach through inorganic expansions. It had acquired control of Asian age Holdings, which publishes newspaper “The Asian Age” in five cities. The acquisition will help strengthen the brand image of Asian Age at the back of increasing print run. The company had also acquired Odyssey India Ltd (Odyssey) for Rs.61.2 crore, in a cash deal. Odyssey is a growing leisure retail chain, is engaged in sale of books, music, toys, greeting cards and FMCG products. This move was intended to notch advertisement from FMCG giants.
    • Buy Back of Equity Shares: The Board approved the proposal for buy back of equity shares of Rs.2 each of the fully paid up equity share capital of the Company, at a price not exceeding Rs.100 per equity share aggregating to Rs.180 Cr from equity shareholders other than the Promoters and persons in control of the Company. The maximum number of shares to be bought back through the Stock Exchanges shall not exceed 3, 50, and 00,000 Equity Shares of Rs.2 each which represents 14.29% of the paid up capital of the Company. However the Promoter Holding in the Company shall not exceed 75% of the Paid up capital of the Company post buy back. The minimum number of Equity Shares (minimum buy back shares) to be bought back is 1,00,00,000 Equity Shares of Rs.2 each.
    • Stimulus Package for the Media Sector to boost growth: Taking note of the difficulties faced by the media industry due to the financial crisis, the government last week said it will shortly announce a stimulus package for the sector. The I & B ministry has already sent certain recommendations about the package to the Finance ministry and the government is expected announce it soon. Moreover, the good point is that the said package is mostly concerning the print media and hence the scrip is expected to be positively effected more than those in the electronic media.  
    • Indian Premier League (IPL)--Profitable in the first year itself: Deccan Chronicle had bagged the rights for the IPL team of Hyderabad for US $107mn payable over the next 10 years. The IPL Hyderabad rights would be a part of Sieger Solutions. DCHL named the team Deccan Chargers and spent around $5.9mn in annual fees to recruit players. While there is every chance that the venture would achieve breakeven only after a couple of years, management has indicated that the IPL venture turned profitable for the company in the first year itself. DCHL clocked around Rs107.5cr revenue and incurred expenses to the tune of Rs88cr during its first year of operations. Hence, it made a neat profit of Rs19.5cr from the venture. Also Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd will not sell its Indian Premier League cricket team, Deccan Chargers, as there were no buyers in the market, a top official said. Deccan will review the decision to sell Deccan Chargers in three years from now as this downturn cycle was likely to be extended till 2012. It is to be noted that, Deccan Chronicle had in 2008 paid $107.01 million for the Hyderabad team for Indian cricket board’s Twenty20 series for 10 years.
    • Sieger Solutions – Potential unlocking on the cards: Sieger Solutions, a wholly owned subsidiary of DCHL, was formed in July 2006 to handle media space selling for DCHL for a pre-defined commission. However, Sieger has stopped clocking revenues from this model and now houses all the internet portals – Deccanchronicle.com, Papyrusclubs.com and Mydigitalfce.com. For FY2008, Sieger Solutions registered revenues of Rs.72 Cr and PAT of Rs.35 Cr primarily driven by a subscription based model from a website called Papyrusclubs.com (student community forums) under which it has tied up with several institutes to publish and share campus news over the Internet. Recently, DCHL also entered into an outsourcing agreement with New York Times (NYT) to manage their internet properties out of India as well as some of the development activities connecting to the digital space. Sieger Solutions is expected to rake in incremental revenues of Rs.150 Cr from this arrangement in FY2009. DCHL is also in talks to sell 5% equity stake in Sieger Solutions to NYT.

     

    Conclusion:  During FY2008-10, we can expect DCHL to post a CAGR growth of 16% in Revenue aided by 18% CAGR growth in advertising revenues and 8% CAGR in circulation revenues. On the Earnings front, we can expect DCHL to report a CAGR of 15% largely boosted by a decline in interest costs

    However, on the operating front, the DCHL is expected to post a subdued growth owing to a sharp decline in Operating Margins on account of stiff competition in Chennai, initial losses on account of the Bangalore edition and the Financial Chronicle launch, and higher newsprint prices. Hence, we can expect DCHL to post a CAGR growth of 9% in EBITDA during FY2009-10.

    However, there are valid concerned on DCHL owing to its poor quality of growth (funding working capital requirements through Balance Sheet), scalability issues (too much dependence on single region), poor corporate governance (management not delivering on promises made – buyback, un-locking in subsidiaries) and unsustainable Margins (60% OPM as against peer average of 20%). While management has addressed some of these concerns – reduced debtor days to 90 days by securitization with ICICI for a 12% discount, and initiated talks with NYT to unlock value in Sieger, still some more clarity on the same is expected. Moreover, depreciating rupee is negative for the company as it imports newsprints.

    Growing awareness among the common mass is leading to the rise in the circulation of newspaper. The growth was triggered mainly by India and china. DHCL occupies second position in the print industry and caters to the most part of the Southern India. Its paper Deccan Chronicle is the most read newspaper in Andhra Pradesh, Chennai and Hyderabad. The company is also eying a substantial share in Bangalore and is expanding to newer geographies which include Mumbai and Pune. Revenues of the company will also be triggered, by the upcoming expansion plans of Odyssey.

    At the CMP of Rs.37.85, the stock is trading at dirt-cheap valuations considering its future upsides from the Sieger Solutions deal with NYT and IPL’s good performance. The valuation can also be corroborated by the growing advertisement revenues and increasing subscription.

    Note: This Report is from the Yesterday's (08-02-09) Sunday Report which was sent to the Paid Groups, Yesterday (8th February, 2009

    Is Satyam Computers Services Ltd, a buy at Rs.39.95 ??!!

    To understand this fact, let us consider the following points, a little meticulously .........

                             Satyam Computer Services Ltd

     

    Scrip Code :  500376

    Quarter ending :  September 2008

     

    Shareholding belonging to the category
    "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

     

    Sl. No.

    Name of the Shareholder

    No. of Shares

    Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

    1

     Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd A/C Aberdeeninternational India Opportunities Fund ( Mauritius ) Ltd

    23,800,000 

    3.53 

    2

     Fidelity Management & Research Company A/C Fidelity Investment Trust - Fidelity Diversified International-Fund

    23,000,000 

    3.42 

    3

     ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd

    16,621,682 

    2.47 

    4

     Lazard Asset Management LLC A/c Lazard Emerging Markets Portfolio

    14,490,567 

    2.15 

    5

     Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd A/C Aberdeen Global Asia Pacific Fund

    10,680,500 

    1.59 

    6

     Life Insurance Corportion of India

    9,959,281 

    1.48 

    7

     Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt

    8,203,186 

    1.22 

    8

     JP Morgan Asset Management Europe SARL A/c Flagship Indian Investment Co Maurities Ltd

    8,179,448 

    1.21 

    9

     LIC of India Money Plus

    7,941,345 

    1.18 

    10

     Swiss Finance Corporation Mauritius Ltd

    7,515,806 

    1.12 

    11

     Government of Singapore

    7,128,885 

    1.06 

    12

     Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company Ltd

    7,096,342 

    1.05 

     

     Total

    144,617,042 

    21.47 

     

    The following Fund Houses sold shares yesterday in the open market due to too much panic created  by the "Media Terrorists":

     

    1. SWISS FINANCE CORP MAURITIUS LTD===> Sold 7786759 shares at Rs.74.61
    2. ABERDEEN INTERNATIONAL INDIA OPPORTUNITIES FUND MAURITIUS LTD===>Sold 9830811 shares of the company at Rs.43.41
    3. ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGERS LTD ABERDEEN GLOBAL ASIA PACIFIC FUND===>Sold 4179064 shares at Rs.43.41 

     

    Hence it can be concluded from the above data that Majority of Fund Houses feel that Satyam Computers Ltd will be able to come out of the mess created by its Founder Chairman Mr. B Ramalinga Raju??!!

    Moreover, Sukumar Rajah, chief investment officer (CIO) of equity in India at Franklin Templeton Investments, which manages $4 billion of assets in the country, said in an e-mail, “This unfortunate development will be a short-term negative for market sentiment,”. Still, by forcing regulators to improve oversight, the incident “should be a Long Term Positive,” Rajah said.

     

    According to a well known and reputed financial web-site, developing-nation stocks are trading near their cheapest levels in a decade after the global economic slowdown and a slump in commodity prices sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down 54 percent in 2008. In comparison, the MSCI World Index dropped 42 percent. Shares in the MSCI emerging-markets index trade at 8.8 times reported earnings, while developed shares fetch 11.5 times profit. Sensex companies trade at 9.5 times earnings.

    Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., Satyam’s largest institutional investor as of September, said its investment outlook for India hasn’t changed. Funds run by Aberdeen own at least 5.12 percent of Satyam, according the Hyderabad-based company’s filings for the quarter ended Sept. 31.

    “People will grow a bit more dispassionate, but you can say the same for the U.S. and elsewhere,” said Hugh Young, managing director at Aberdeen’s Asian unit, which manages $37.3 billion. “India has great companies that do the right things. Hopefully this is a one off.” He declined to say how many Satyam shares Aberdeen holds, or whether any were sold recently.

    India’s $1.2 trillion economy may grow 7 percent in the year ending March 31, the slowest pace since 2003, according to government forecasts. The economy may expand at close to that rate in the next fiscal year as the global recession cuts exports and domestic demand wanes, Junior Industry Minister Ashwani Kumar said in New Delhi yesterday.

    To understand the mammoth-ness of Satyam Computers Services Ltd let us take note of the following facts: Satyam Computer Services Ltd, employs 53,000 people, operates in 65 countries and serves almost 700 companies, including 185 Fortune 500 companies. More than half of its revenue comes from the United States.

    The most encouraging news came from www.cnn.com which writes: "Analysts say Satyam is ripe for a takeover, and the government is expected to submit a formal report on the matter Thursday".

    Therefore, can we construe that those highly skilled stock market professionals, who have purchased some shares of Satyam Computers Ltd will have a field day in the next few months??!!

    However, the most horrifying part of this event is that that cash balance that was non-existent got certified by one of most reputed auditors in the world map, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.  This reputed auditor of Satyam Computers Ltd’s, declined to comment on the scandal, according to an e-mail from the New York- based firm’s public relations adviser, Edelman.

    I had earlier discouraged all my  Paid Clients not to enter Satyam Computers Ltd, when it fell to around Rs.179---I was anticipting something like this, from my exprience durring the dotocm boom-bust cycle in the 1990s and early 2000. But is it time to buy this stock at the CMP of Rs.39.95, for the short term gains??!!

     

    Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd: Accumulate on all declines;

    BSE Code: 531746

    Face Value: Rs.10

    CMP: Rs.17.70

    Book Value: Rs.152.34

    EPS: Rs.17.87

    P/E: 0.99

    Dividend: 25%

    Market Cap: Rs.70.26 Cr

    Buying Price: The scrip should be bought above Rs.18.5

     

    Company Background: Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (PESL) was promoted by Mr. Chandra Mohan Reddy. It’s a 25 years old partnership firm converted into a public limited company in the year 1994. It pioneers in construction activities in the twin cities of Hyderabad-Secunderabad. Its Key developments include residential flats, townships, shopping malls, office buildings and group housings.

    The company has developed around 6.7 million square feet over the past twenty years across more than 75 projects and a further 10.7 million square feet of land is under various stages of development. Prajay has a significant presence in the hospitality segment also, with three landmark ventures in the city: Prajay's luxury resort, the Celebrity Holiday Retreat and the 30 room Celebrity Boutique Hotel (located 500 metres away from the airport). Prajay has been the leader in identifying new locations that are today of strategic importance, which has given it huge cost advantage.

     

    Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 16.42% while the general public holds, 83.58%. Among the general public FIIs hold a whooping 58.78% of the shares of the company.

     

     

    Shareholding belonging to the category "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

     

    Sl. No.

    Name of the Shareholder

    No. of Shares

    Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

    1

    Copthall Maritius Investment Ltd

    1,808,085

    4.55

    2

    Goldman Sachs Investment Mauritius Ltd

    852,543

    2.15

    3

    Citigroup Global Markets (Mauritius) Pvt Ltd

    2,130,796

    5.37

    4

    ABN Amro Bank N.V. London Branch

    1,518,952

    3.83

    5

    Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana S.A.S.V.

    1,487,223

    3.75

    6

    Morgan Stanley Investments Mauritius Ltd

    617,200

    1.55

    7

    Swiss Finance Corporation Mauritius Ltd

    1,047,459

    2.64

    8

    S Madhuri Reddy

    410,000

    1.03

    9

    N Ravinder Reddy

    2,020,100

    5.09

    10

    Merlin Securities Ltd

    5,336,134

    13.44

    11

    GRA Finance Corprate

    457,701

    1.15

    12

    Clsa Mauritius Ltd

    1,361,942

    3.43

    13

    ABN Amro Bank N.V. London Branch

    424,211

    1.07

    14

     BSMA Ltd

    760,000 

    1.91 

    15

     Deutsche Securities Mauritius Ltd

    2,358,893 

    5.94 

     

     Total

    22,591,239 

    56.91 

     

     

    Financials:  Though for Q2FY09, the total income was almost flat the net profit of the company suffered due to higher expenditure and higher depreciation, as can be seen below. The fact that the interest cost was more or less flat comparing Q-o-Q was a good sign. Moreover, the tax component was also less in Q2FY09, as compared to the same quarter previous year. However, due to the downturn, the operating margin and net profit margin took a quantum hit. However, this is going to correct in the next few quarters, due to the fall in the price of raw materials, in the last few quarters and also due to seasonal demand.

     

    Standalone Result of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd

     

    Type

    Un-Audited

    Un-Audited

    Un-Audited

    Un-Audited

    Un-Audited

    Audited

     

    Period Ending

    30-Sep-08

    30-Jun-08

    31-Mar-08

    31-Dec-07

    30-Sep-07

    31-Mar-08

     

    No. of Months

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    12

     

    Description

    Amount (Rs. million)

     

    Net Sales / Interest Earned / Operating Income

    418.44

    222.10

    907.03

    1,369.56

    462.46

    3,440.19

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Other Income

    1.92

    1.78

    6.83

    0.96

    0.91

    9.82

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Total Income

    420.36

    223.87

    913.86

    -

    463.37

    3,450.01

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Expenditure

    -270.24

    -144.32

    -904.12

    -

    -200.17

    -2,061.87

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Interest

    -27.06

    -24.94

    -11.61

    -27.97

    -27.69

    -90.87

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Profit Before Depreciation and Tax

    123.06

    54.61

    -1.87

    -27.97

    235.51

    1,297.27

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Depreciation

    -9.11

    -8.66

    -7.89

    -

    -4.96

    -22.52

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Profit before Tax

    113.95

    45.96

    -9.76

    705.01

    230.55

    1,274.75

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Tax

    -39.03

    -15.92

    -41.06

    -49.75

    -76.58

    -246.09

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Net Profit

    74.92

    30.04

    -50.82

    655.26

    153.97

    1,028.67

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Equity Capital

    396.96

    396.96

    396.96

    275.91

    248.57

    396.96

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Basic EPS after Extraordinary items

    1.89

    0.76

    -1.85

    25.47

    6.58

    37.46

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Diluted EPS after Extraordinary items

    1.89

    0.76

    -1.85

    17.32

    4.05

    37.46

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Nos. of Shares - Public

    33,178,576.00

    33,178,576.00

    33,178,576.00

    22,473,112.00

    20,017,152.00

    33,178,576.00

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Percent of Shares-Public

    83.58

    83.58

    83.58

    81.45

    80.53

    83.58

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Operating Profit Margin

    35.88

    35.82

    1.07

    -

    56.91

    40.35

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Net Profit Margin

    17.90

    13.53

    -5.60

    47.84

    33.29

    29.90

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Cash EPS

    2.12

    0.97

    -1.08

    -

    6.39

    26.48

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Notes

    Notes

    Notes

    Notes

    Notes

    Notes

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Detailed

    Detailed

    Detailed

    Detailed

    Detailed

    Detailed

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Key Highlights:

                The company earns 95% of its revenue from Real Estate and from Hospitality segment.

                In March 2007 the company posted a turnover of over Rs.2,000 million and profits of around Rs.800 million. It achieved Rs.1,000 million turnover in one quarter.

                Last year the company signed a joint venture with Sunway Group, Malaysia for development of residential condominiums projects in Hyderabad.

                Prajay Engineers' Land bank stands at approximately 850 acres 80% of which is in and around Hyderabad

                In the last twenty years of its existence, PESL has delivered 75 projects and developed around 6.7 million square feet.

     

    Investment Rationale:

                The increased demand for residential units and commercial, office space for the IT and ITES companies suggest that the spurt will continue for years to come. An estimated inflow of Rs.5,508 billion investments in this sector will usher in development at a remarkable pace.

                Government thrust on infrastructure spending has given a tremendous boost to construction sector in terms of market size resulting in higher demand across the sector.

                Prajay Engineers Syndicate's base in the twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad offers it a myriad of opportunities in the real estate sector. The rapidly growing IT/ITES industry in Hyderabad has its roots in the proactive role of the state government pitching Hyderabad as the 'Hi-Tec' city of India.

                The Government's decision to launch Bio Tech Park and Fab City has further given a boost to technology driven growth in Hyderabad.

                The company currently has around 31 projects underway and plans to construct around 37.6 million square feet in the next four to five years. All projects have credit Rating of A+ by FIs.

                With its visionary approach and contemporary building practices, cutting edge management discipline, Prajay is at the forefront of imparting dynamism to infrastructure development industry.

                The company is foraying into Tier II cities of Andhra Pradesh like Vizag and Vijaywada, by FY10.

                The company want to invest around Rs.500-600 Cr in the coming years to develop the hospitality segment; to create 1000 room capacity by 2009 in the 5 star, 4-star and the 3- star business class categories; and to develop 31 projects including residential, commercial, retail and hospitality projects, aggregating to around 37.57 million square feet over the next five years.

                PESL’s 100% subsidiary Prajay Holdings, has received a commitment of FDI recently, to the tune of rupees equivalent of US $ 36 million for one of its prime projects at Hyderabad wherein a development of around 40 lac square ft has been planned by the company.

                The company is riding high on the real estate and infrastructure boom: it has set a target of reaching Rs.1000 crore turnover by FY10.

                Future Focus: Premium Apartments, Ultra-modern Townships, Development of Golf course, Independent premium bungalows, Development of 3 and 5 star hotels, Infrastructure development, Shopping Malls. These are all high volume and high margin activities.

     

    Conclusion:

    As the trend of spiraling growth continues, there are miles more to go, and further milestones to achieve. With 31 planned and ongoing projects, which will culminate into construction of around 38 million square feet and the residential segment comprising of about 84 percent of the total area under development, the company is expected to do well in future. The stock at the current market price provides an investment opportunity and one should invest in it taking a call for 12-15 months horizon for at least 50% from the CMP of Rs.17.7.

    Chartical Indicators: For the short term, buy the scrip only if it closes above Rs.18.5 on a daily closing basis. The MACD and CCI are in perfect buy mode, while Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and Williams%R are also in buy mode.

    Moreover, in the Candle Stick Chart Pattern, the inverted hammer, formation indicates that a significant decline has taken place in the stock price and the shorts are beginning to cover their positions---a very bullish indicator.

    With this Candle Stick Chart Pattern, it is imperative to watch the next day's trading action. If the stock opens strong and remains strong during the day, then a key Reversal is likely in progress—a perfect time to bag the scrip.

     

    Note: This stock was recommended to the Paid Groups in the Sunday Report of 30-11-08.