Sunday 22 June 2014

Jai Balaji Industries Ltd: A Hidden Mining Story
CMP: Rs.23.80
Aditya Jajodia, CMD, Jai Balaji Group
Photo: Moneycontrol.com
Introduction: Jai Balaji Group is one of the largest manufacturers of steel in the private sector in Eastern India. It has integrated facilities for producing steel in its manufacturing units spread across the states of West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand in India. 
The Group has a chain of value-added products which include DRI, Pig Iron, Ferro Alloys, Alloy and Mild Steel Billets, Reinforcement Steel TMT Bars, Wire Rods, Ductile Iron Pipes and Alloy and Mild Steel Heavy Rounds. Jai Balaji Industries Ltd continues to have three wholly owned subsidiaries namely:
  • M/s. Nilachal Iron & Power Limited==> It is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company since 26.10.2007, having its manufacturing plant located in Kandra near Jamshedpur, Jharkhand. It currently, manufactures sponge iron. Work on increasing its capacity by 60,000 tonnes per annum has been initiated.
    The company has been allotted the Dumri Coal Block for captive mining from the Government of India, about 300 kms from the plant. 
    Mining of coal is expected to start shortly and a Coal Washery ill also be installed to improve efficiency of the raisings. 
  • M/s. Jai Balaji Steels (Purulia) Limited
  • & M/s. Jai Balaji Energy (Purulia)
The company also has 101.1 MW power plant, Sinter plant to utilize cheaper iron ore fines and have also put up Coke Oven Plant.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 54.57% of the shares of the company while general public holds 41.07% of the shares of the company. The corporate bodies hold 13.14% of the shares of the company while the FIIs hold 4.3% of the shares of the company. In fact the  FIIs' holdings have increased from 3.71% in October, 2013 quarter to 4.36% in March, 2014 quarter. 

Financials: Net Loss of Jai Balaji Industries came as Rs.123.49 crore in the quarter ended March 2014 as against net loss of Rs.63.46 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2013. Sales declined 14.62% to Rs 434.35 crore in the quarter ended March 2014 as against Rs.508.70 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2013.
For the full year,net loss reported to Rs.318.95 crore in the year ended March 2014 as against net loss of Rs.213.13 crore during the previous year ended March 2013. Sales rose 27.81% to Rs.1946.00 crore in the year ended March 2014 as against Rs.1522.58 crore during the previous year ended March 2013.
Due to the increase in the raw materials cost, such as Iron Ore and Coke/Coal as a percentage of net sales, post FY11 and inability to increase end product prices due to competitive environment, resulted in EBITDA margins of the company taking a hit. This is one of the prime reasons why the company is posting huge losses. 
Now, most of the established companies, like SAIL, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and Power Ltd etc, have their own captive iron ore and coal mines which puts a lid on the costs. But Jai Balaji Industries Ltd has to procure this at market prices and under such circumstances, the going got tough for it. 
As a matter of fact the it was allotted both Coking and Non Coking in the past and have also formed joint venture companies for implementation. But due to some nagging issues surrounding coal block allotment, the things got unnecessarily delayed. However, off late Dumri Coal Block received Environmental clearance and Forest Go Certificate. Forest clearance stage one has been received and stage two is under process. This is expected to significantly reduce the cost of the production in the days ahead. 

Triggers: 
  • Company has 1.1 mtpa steel manufacturing company with diversified product range including pig iron, sponge iron, TMT bars, ferro alloys, alloy bars etc. Replacement cost of assets is over Rs.5000 Cr. It has debts around Rs.2200 Cr. The NAV of the company therefore stands at Rs.2800 Cr. 
  • The company is also hopeful of commencing work on its proposed steel plant at Raghunathpur in the Purulia district of West Bengal soon. According to information available on the company's Web site, it plans to set up 5-mt steel plant, 3-mt cement plant along with a 1,215-MW power plant at an estimated investment of Rs.16,000 crore.
  • The company holds varying stakes in four coal blocks-Dumri and Rohne in Jharkhand and Andal and Jagannathpur in West Bengal. It posses 700 mt of high graded coal. 
  • The DRI Plant of 60000 MT & coal washery in subsidiary company M/s Nilachal Iron & Power Limited started its commercial production during FY13. In FY13, the company’s project for expansion of 350000 MTPA Coke Oven Plant along with Waste Heat Recovery Boiler of 80 TPH was completed and capitalized. The said coke oven plant is presently running satisfactorily. These efforts are helping it to improve the margins. 
  • The company completed a CDR-scheme where it got reliefs both in terms of interest rate and debt. It is estimated it will be able to save Rs.25-30 Cr annually through CDR mechanism only. Moreover, steel demand was low in FY14 due to continuing economic crisis, however, spurt in demand is expected in 2014-15. A sharp pullback in demand of steel in the third quarter has pushed up steel consumption in the fourth quarter of FY14. Also, with as the government talking tough on inflation, the raw material price are expected to come down albeit in a very tiny manner and very slowly. This is expected to give an upward push in its bottomline going forward. 
  • Jai Balaji Industries Ltd has recently informed the BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on May 29, 2014, inter alia, have converted the remaining 65,05,000 warrants which were allotted on July 04, 2013 to Hari Management Limited, Promoter Group Company of the Company into 65,05,000 equity shares of Rs.50 each (including premium of Rs.40 per equity share). Earlier the Company on 4th July, 2013, issued and allotted 10,000,000 warrants to promoter group companies namely M/s. Enfield Suppliers Limited (1,900,000 warrants) and M/s. Hari Management Limited (8,100,000 warrants) on a private placement basis at an issue price of Rs.50 each. Also, the number of pledged shares have come down from its peak level of 92%. Company has further plans to release more pledged shares in due course of time.
  • A Joint Venture Company ‘M/s.Rohne Coal Company Private Limited’ was formed in 2008-09 with the Registrar of Companies, NCT of Delhi & Haryana, in which the company along with M/s. JSW Steel Limited & M/s. Bhushan Power & Steel Limited are venture partners. The said Joint Venture Company was formed in terms of allocation of Rohne-Coking Coal Block in the State of Jharkhand by Ministry of Coal, Government of India. Both the Joint Venture Companies are in the process of setting up coal mining facilities at respective coal blocks. The Ministry of Environment and Forest (MoEF) has already granted the first stage forest clearance the Rohne coking coal block in Jharkhand.
Conclusion: Persistent slowdown in demand for steel and falling steel prices has squeezed profitability of steel companies in India. This was reflected in the Financials of the company during FY14. However, the global steel demand is expected to grow over by 10% in the next five years. Steel industry is vital for overall economic development of every nation as it is one of the core sectors. India is the largest producer of sponge iron in the world. Despite all the headwinds and lingering difficulties, the steel industry is likely to deliver growth with the current NDA government focusing on infrastructure development. 
At present the Indian Steel industry is on the growth path due to growing domestic demand, unexplored rural market and rapid urbanization. The strong growth in automotive industry and power sectors would drive steel output and consumption, in future. With the improvement in the economic recessions in the west, the potential for increase in demand is high.
Moreover, the total revenue of Jai Balaji Industries Ltd for FY14, came out to be Rs.1990.78 Cr, plus its assets (Coal Blocks + NAV) are available at just Rs.175.60 Cr. The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.72.59 against the CMP of only Rs.23.80. 
Chartically speaking, the stocks seems to be at the end of downtrend and should find support around Rs.22.40--21.70 ranges. The investors are suggested to accumulate the scrip, if this level holds. In any case, in the short term, the scrip is not likely break Rs.19.70 on the downside. The short term target for the scrip is Rs.29-31. 

Friday 20 June 2014

Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd: A Turnaround Story
CMP: Rs.5.08
Introduction: Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd is one of the leading company in the field of educational services and has created its own niche through reliable, budget friendly and ethical approaches. Birla Shloka Edutech Limited was incorporated on 25th May, 1992 (Registration Number 066910) with Registrar of Mumbai as Rathi Mercantile Industries Limited. It was acquired in the year 1998 by the prestigious Yash Birla Group. The Company got its name as Birla Shloka Edutech Limited in December 2008. Today the company stands tall with the trust and confidence of its millions of delighted customers who form the backbone of the company’s new product innovations and researched. Company is engaged in providing IT Services & sale of IT products and has a curriculam based educational software programe viz., “XL@School “ as per the syllabus prescribed by different educational board that is  designed to impart academic knowledge through electronic media
The Company has three subsidiaries: 
  • Birla Edutech Limited.
  • Wholly-owned foreign subsidiary, viz. Birla Shloka Edutech ltd.FZE.
  • Ojus Healthcare private Limited.The Shares in the later Subsidiary (51.10%) was acquired by the Company during FY13. The main object of the subsidiary is to establish hospitals, conducting research and development activities in the areas of medical science, to carry the business of providing the healthcare and health information. In addition to the main object it can also pursue e - Governance Project.
The company derives its revenue from either supply or on installation of educational content and services, content licensing, sale of content and technology products. 

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters have increased their stakes to 17.03% in Q4FY14 from 9.23% in the December, 2013 quarter. The general public holds 82.97% of the shares of the company. Among the general public Birla Bombay Pvt Ltd,  holds 2.68% of the shares of the company. Also, 4% shares of the company are locked in for trade. Moreover, corporate bodies  hold 12.42% of the shares of the company. 

Financials: For Q4FY14, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.33.69 Cr as against Rs.54.3 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company jumped to Rs.3.53 Cr as against Rs.2.77 Cr in the same period previous year. The EPS of the company for Q4FY14, came out to be Rs.1.68 as against Rs.1.32 in the same period previous year. On a consolidated basis, the total income of the company for FY14 came out to be Rs.101.09 Cr as against Rs.279.4 Cr in the same period previous year. The net loss of the company came out to be Rs.9.45 lakhs as against a net profit of Rs.30.8 Cr in the same period previous year. The reserves of the company as of 31st March, 2014 stood out to be Rs.93.99 Cr as against Rs.87.81 Cr in the same period previous year. 

Triggers:
  • The Company has a curriculum based educational software program viz., ‘XL@school’ as per the syllabus prescribed by different Educational Boards that is designed to impart academic knowledge through electronic media. To cope up with the increased business opportunities, the Company has made considerable investment in research and development areas, ongoing quality enhancement program and infrastructure facilities, etc. 
  • The Company has expanded its business in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solution for various government schools segment. In March, 2014, Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd informed the BSE that it had received an order from School Education Department, Government of Tamil Nadu for implementation of Information and Communication Technology Scheme in 1820 Government High & Higher Secondary Schools in Tamil Nadu State with a Total Project Value of Rs.359 Cr. Few more such orders could flow into the company's kitty this Fiscal. 
  • The government of India is keen to explore the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model for setting up of Schools which the private partner will design, build, finance and manage. The company sees enormous potential in this space for future growth as more and more states are likely to devise and implement similar schemes for Senior Secondary Education and probably in primary education too.
  • The Company is aggressively participating in tenders of various state government projects and vigorously pursuing such initiatives across the country.
  • The need for ICT solution in government school is growing and opportunities are available in this space. Retails opportunities are available by way of sale of software contents to the end customer directly.
  • The Education sector is one of the most promising sector creating tremendous opportunities. Being a country having 50% of its population less than 25 yrs old, the Company sees bright prospects in this fiscal. The Company sees tremendous growth opportunities in the following areas:
    (i) ICT projects availed from School Educational Department, Government of Maharashtra: The School Education Department, Maharashtra along with DES & HS had invited various reputed and experienced organizations/ Institutes for the supply of Computer and connected accessories, Education software's, Online M.I.S., teaching faculty and provision of IT Education Services in 5000 Government Secondary and Higher Secondary schools in 10 groups (i.e. 10 regions) from the districts of the State of Maharashtra as specified in DTN for a period of five years through e-tender. The proposed project is about setting up of computer laboratories in Secondary and Higher Secondary schools all across the state of Maharashtra. It has been decided that a region wise implementation is to be done for the same and a representative number of schools have been chosen from the regions created. The Company has been awarded with the project for providing Computer and connected accessories, Education software's, Online M.I.S., teaching faculty and provision of IT Education Services to 850 Government Secondary and Higher Secondary schools for a period of five years. The Total Value of the Project is Rs.152 Cr. The ICT Solutions provided by the Company under this project will be on BOOT (Build Own Operate Transfer) model and will be transferred to the respective school(s) at the end of the tenure of Contract at an agreed price of Re. 1.
    (ii) Interactive multimedia learning and education system: The company has a well developed library of syllabus based interactive multimedia learning content for CBSE & Maharashtra State Board. The company has initiated the process of enhancing the features of the existing content and also develop the syllabus based interactive multimedia content for other state and central boards to expand the footprints in the segment of Multimedia Content for learning across the country.
    (iii) Development of Teaching Solutions and Learning Aids for Early Year Schooling: The company intends to set up development centre to create learning solutions for the young learners about the space, environment & relationships around them. The program will aid children to explore & nurture relationships they share within the spectrum of this space/ environment, empowering them to take ownership of the environment and relationships around them while contributing positively towards it. This unique solution together with the learning aids and collaterals developed by the company intends to provide unique teaching methodology and aids for Pre Schools. The company intends to have strategic tie ups with leading providers of collaterals like storybooks, music CDs, Story CDs, games and manipulative games, theme kits, toys, interactive games etc., to augment the solutions developed by the company.
    (iv) Supply of ICT solution to government and private schools: The company sees numerous opportunities under the ever increasing scope of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) of Government of India. The ICT is being presently used from School Education to University Education. The government is increasingly focusing at the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model to set up more number of Centers of Excellence and Skill Based Vocational Training Centers which will enhance the employability potential of students. The government of India, with the aim of improving Computer Literacy in Public Schools is increasingly opting for Public Private Partnerships to source IT Infrastructure and training under Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan (SSA) Programme. Institutions have varying requirements and the private sector may be able to offer innovative solutions that will provide quality services and value for money.
    (v) Setting up and managing Teacher Training Institutes: In the coming years India is expected to face a huge demand for schools and teachers to educate its rapidly increasing school population. The curriculum in most of the existing Teacher Training Institutes does not equip teachers with the requisite skills to prepare students for tomorrow. The company is committed to setting up state of the art Teacher Training Institutes across the country that will attract the country's leading talent and prepare a cadre of highly skilled teachers who can ensure that each child learns in our classrooms.
    (vi) Supply of software as per customer specifications and requirements: The company is engaged in the business of providing customized software based on the specifications and requirements of its customers. The company sees more prospects and growth in this segment and therefore, is enhancing its capabilities and offer more products and services in this segment.
  • The company came up with 100% Book Built FPO in Jan 11, 2010 - Jan 13, 2010 at an Issue Price: Rs.45 - Rs.50 per Equity Share to meet: (i) Capital expenditure for Turnkey Projects executed by the company under the BOOT model (ii) Capital expenditure on up-gradation of infrastructure and content development for XL@School (iii) Funding the proposed M&A activities and (iv) The Working Capital requirements This price is around 9-10 times the CMP of the shares of the company. 
  • Recently there were some media reports that, the NDA govt will focus on e-governance for transparency, efficiency and accountability. President Pranab Mukherjee, who addressed the joint session of Parliament for the first time after the 16th Lok Sabha was constituted, said the government would embrace digitization of records and leverage technology. Pointing out that e-governance brings empowerment, equity and efficiency, Mukherjee said the newly-elected government will use the tool to improve service delivery and programme implementation. President Pranab Mukherjee said ICT will play a crucial role in the ways of working of the new government as it will be used to drive re-engineering of government processes to improve service delivery and program implementation. All these are positive for the companies like Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd. 
Conclusion: The Book Value of the shares of the company is Rs.50.36 and at Rs.5.08 it has a market cap of only Rs.10.47 Cr, against reserves of Rs.93.99 Cr as, of 31st March, 2014. In March, 2014 quarter it showed a turnaround. On the daily candle stick chart too, it seems a temporary bottom has been formed, as it bounced back from the oversold positions. Risk taking traders can buy at least 10, 000 shares of the company and keep holding. It is a screaming buy at the current market price.

Wednesday 18 June 2014

Allied Digital Services Ltd: Future Prospects Look Good 
CMP: Rs.21.40
Introduction: Allied Digital Services Ltd provides a range of IT infrastructure services and solutions including managed services and physical and information security solutions to leading Indian and global corporations. The company has a presence in over 132 locations in India, and over 40 states in the USA, through its acquisition of Enpointe Global Services. 

Allied is an ISO 9001: 2000 certified company with a global command center certified  under ISO 27001: 2005. Allied Digital Services Ltd, is among the few companies, with a truly pan India direct  presence in 132 locations across the length and breadth of India--serving over 40, 000 pin-codes on the same day. It has the following subsidiaries:  
(i) Allied Digital Services LLC 
(ii) Digicomp Complete Solutions Limited
(iii) Allied Digital Inc (USA) 
(iv) En Pointe Technologies India Private Limited
(v) Allied Digital Singapore Pte Limited 
(vi) Allied Digital Asia Pacific Pty Limited (Australia) 
(vii) E-Cop Surveillance India Pvt. Ltd

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters holds  43.71% while the general public hold 56.29% of the shares of the company. Among the general category, the FIIs hold 2.96% of the shares of the company and corporate bodies hold 8.47% of the shares of the company. It has a very small equity capital of Rs.29.09 Crore and hence, the number of floating shares are also less. 
Please Click on the Chart to get an Expanded View
Financials: The company recorded a profit at the net level of Rs.9.2 Cr in FY14, as compared to the net loss of Rs.5.1 Cr in the corresponding quarter previous year. The Basic EPS stood at Rs.2, an increase of 281.8% over the same period previous year. The EBIDTA margins have also improved by 420 bps and the company has returned to black after a long phase. The market cap of the company is only Rs.99.84 Cr against the FY14 turnover of Rs.181.88 Cr. Moreover, the P/E of the shares of the company is only 7.73, while the industry P/E is 20.73. A decent P/E re-rating of around 15, can take the scrip to around Rs.41-42. The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.149.40, while the price to book is only 0.14. 

Triggers:
  • The Company has been taking transformation initiatives coupled with key innovations to make the business future ready. Key among the initiatives under this program is skilling the entire organization in terms of technology, process and leadership to ensure that the organization is ahead of the curve when the opportunities present itself to it. 
  • The company has laid great emphasis on sustaining profitability going forward. One of the key drivers identified for this is a change in customer focus where buying patterns are moving from a capex model to an opex model. Earlier the company laid more stress on selling hardware to the clients while the present focus is on selling solution and services there by benefiting the customer as well as adding to its bottomline. From a business model perspective, it continues to focus on the Infrastructure Management Services vertical where the management believes that the fastest growth is predicted to happen. 
  • The IMS industry currently accounts for US$ 524 billion, nearly a quarter of the US$2.3 trillion overall IT spend and is moving towards a remote delivery model where services are increasingly delivered by vendors from low-cost locations. India being one of them, hence, the company stands to benefit. 
  • As a strategy, the company has been concentrating on weeding out low margin hardware business, which has depressed the topline of the company. It is expected that the fortunes of the US business will improve as the economy in the US is improving. With the new immigration law being underway, the local US IT  services business mi see acceleration. Though the UK market is a bit cautious, the rest of Europe barring couple of countries, have started to show some improvement.
  • The India business is showing a radical change from its stand on cloud services compared to last year. Now many organizations are ready to move to cloud based services. The apprehension for security in cloud is declining. Data analytics is also an area of attraction globally. Mobile enablement of applications continues to get focus globally. The IT surveillance business is going to be a big one in the current year globally. IT infrastructure transformation continues to be of prime importance. The company management hopes to be a major beneficiary from  all the transformations. 
  • The company's internal processes have improved, while its US operations are very stable with improved  credit rating. Its UK operations are also getting stabilized. The company recently completed its fifth anniversary in the US. Globally, the company in its transformation journey has revamped its offering with a new branding called “ADiCube”. Moreover, its “Integrated Service Delivery Framework”, has matured into a successful product venture “ADiTaaS (Allied Digital integrated Tool-as-a-Service).
  • As a Master Systems Integrator of ICT and PSS, Allied Digital provides greater depth of solution and support to its customers combined with a single point of responsibility and accountability. This has helped Allied Digital to sign several on-going sales agreements instead of one off sale agreement with Banks, Retail chains and other multi locational customers who are interested in dealing with a single MSI having Pan India presence instead of signing multiple contracts with regional / local systems Integrators. This provides cumulative growth opportunity for the Physical Safety and Security business as well as increased customer retention for Allied Digital.
  • As a Master Systems Integrator Allied Digital now carries a larger portfolio of solutions that includes Video Surveillance, Access Control, Intelligent Traffic and Toll Management systems, Building Management and Energy Management systems. Adoption of ICT in PSS has further strengthened Allied Digital’s presence in the market as a total Systems Integration solution provider as compared to traditional Physical Security Systems OEMs who are now product focussed.
  • Its emphasis on quality has now started showing results with excellent growth in its Remote Management business. The company not only increased business from existing customers but also added several new overseas customers who are being serviced remotely from its state-of-the-art Remote Management centers in Mumbai, Pune and California.
  • During, FY15, the company aims to deepen its engagements with existing clients, draw repeat business, and emerge as the "First Choice" and the preferred partner for its marquee global customers.The Company sees its eco-system of critical partnerships and alliances with reputed global companies as an important asset and will continue to explore opportunities to further expand it. The Company’s differentiated business model with strong capabilities in its chosen verticals, programme management track-record, investments in intellectual property, and a reinforced leadership team are great advantages in the prevailing macro-environment that remains volatile.
  • The management truly believes that the investments that it has made in the last few years to build world class infrastructure and expertise in the space of Network Operating Center (NOC), Security Operating Centre (SOC) and Cloud are going to put it ahead of its competitors. It has a world-class facility at Rancho (USA) to assemble, test and deploy machines in large quantities. Similarly its enhanced capacity at its Global Command Center (NOC and SOC) can take on the additional businesses, which it expects in the space of Remote Infrastructure Management Services (RIMS) and Managed Security Services (MSS). 
  • It has already demonstrated our cutting-edge Mobility Solutions to one of the leading players in the industry ad it has been extremely well received and deployed. The mass adoption of cloud, virtualization, mobility etc. will place the organization in a much positive and profitable position in the near future.
  • Primarily its foreign currency earnings are in US dollars. The exchange rate between the Indian rupee and US dollar has been favourable to the company in FY15. 
  • Although the company has a fairly matured security services practice with large customer base, it does not contribute large share in its overall business. Currently, managed security services contribute to about 5-7% of the total business of Allied Digital. It feels that Indian security industry is at an inflection point and from here only those players who have strong security practice will survive. Hence, it sees a huge growth potential in security services space. Also, Nevada Gaming commission had issued Information Technology Service Provider License to Allied Digital. 
  • Allied Digital won MSP of the Year 2013 Award – LANDesk Software USA. In May 2014, Sunil Bhatt, CTO received the award for MSP of the Year 2013 on behalf of Allied Digital in Las Vegas, USA---this is the third award in the row.

Conclusion: The company earlier bagged a massive order of Rs.224 Cr in Pune City. The company's overseas branches have started to perform. Looking both chartically and fundamentally, the scrip looks attractive for short term perspective. The investors should accumulate the stock of the company on all declines, for a target of Rs.41-42 in the coming days.

Saturday 14 June 2014

Veer Energy and Infrastructure Ltd: A Steady Upmove Expected
CMP: Rs.5.28
Introduction: Veer Energy  and Infrastructure Ltd (VEIL) develops, implements, finances and operates large scale projects in the renewable energy sector, especially in wind energy. Currently, Veer Energy wind farms in operation and construction represent a substantial reduction in carbon dioxide emissions annually. The company is currently active in western region of India with approximately 75 MW successfully commissioned. Significant future growth is expected in both core and new markets, supported by a large development pipeline and Veer Energy’s network of joint development ventures with world class local developers & contractors. Veer Energy’s development of wind energy is consistent with what is prescribed by the Kyoto Protocol. Once in operation, wind farms are a virtually emission free energy source, providing clean and sustainable energy. Veer Energy works to be actively involved in all key phases of wind farm development, finance, construction, and operation.
Basically, the company develops infrastructure for the wind farms and is not into manufacturing of wind turbines. The company identifies a place based on wind analysis. It then develops a complete infrastructure for these wind farms at that location, which are then sold to investors as well as to various wind turbine manufacturers. Investors have an option of selecting the wind turbines they want as the company gives them the required infrastructure.

Shareholding PatternThe promoters hold 35.51% of the shares of the company,  while the general public holds 64.49% of the shares of the company. Among the general public Shriram Credit Company Ltd (5.13%), Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd (1.52%), Sparrow Asia Diversified Opportunity (7.03%) and Anand Rathi Global Finance Ltd (1.82%) holds substantial stakes in the company. 

Financials: For March 2014, the operating income witnessed a growth of 18.3% on a year on year (YoY) basis during the quarter. The expenses were up at a higher rate of 20.2% YoY during the same period. 
  • The rise in expenses led to a fall in the operating profit by 17.6% YoY during the quarter. The operating margins declined to 3.5% as compared to 5% in the March 2013 quarter. 
  • Depreciation charge increased by 19% YoY, while interest charges declined by 86% YoY for the March 2014 quarter. 
  • At the bottom-line level, the company’s net profit declined by 4% YoY to Rs 4.8 m led by higher expenditure in the quarter under review. 
  • The company’s board recommended dividend of Re. 0.06 per share for the financial year ending March 2014.
  • At the current price of Rs.5.28, the company’s stock trades at 13.89 times its trailing twelve month earnings. The Industry P/E is 16.44.
Triggers: 
(i)  The main Business of the Company is to create infrastructure development facilities for the installation of Wind Turbine Generator. As one of the pioneer in this field, the Company is very well positioned to take advantage of ever increasing demand for the renewable energy resources. According to Hindustan Times, 9 June, 2014:
  • The Narendra Modi-led government has started work on a plan to ensure half of all homes in major cities receive some power from solar or wind energy sources by 2019.
  • The plan includes fresh incentives to encourage companies and individuals to invest in renewable energy sources and setting up giant solar plants in states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat.
  • The decision to give a big push to renewable power sources was behind the Prime Minister’s decision to bring the ministries of conventional and renewable power under Piyush Goyal. Sources told HT that Modi asked Goyal to go big on renewable energy.
  • This is keeping in line with the progress made in generating green energy by Gujarat during Modi’s tenure as chief minister. Gujarat implemented the Jyotigram Yojana that provided 24/7 power to each household. The scheme depended on solar, wind, biomass and waste as energy sources to generate about 25,000 MW annually.
  • Goyal has promised to replicate this Yojana and was in the state to study Gandhinagar’s success story.  After meeting the PM, lieutenant governor of Delhi Najeeb Jung also sent a team to study the Gujarat model this week that resulted in fresh power proposals for the Capital.
In view of this development, the management is hopeful to achieve better results in the coming years. It is also exploring the possibilities of starting operations in the state of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan, in full steam. 

(ii) During FY13, the company has commissioned 28.90 MW in Rajasthan. Total MW commissioned till date is 59.30 MW out of 79.5MW of total order in Rajasthan by March 2013. The balance was commissioned in the year 2013-14.

(iii) Moreover, it has some relation with Southern Wind farm Ltd, which is an ADA Group Company floated by Anil Ambani. It is also a vertically integrated company and at a market cap of only Rs.37.56 Cr, it could be a good takeover candidate

(iv) India is one of the developing country, and the scope for improvement in India’s energy system is vast. Renewable energy currently makes up a negligible share (0.36%) of total primary commercial energy supply while 96.9% of such supplies come from fossil fuels and 2.76% from hydro and nuclear resources. The non-commercial combustible biomass and wastes which contributes to the extent of 24.5% of the total energy supplies are excluded in this balance. Wind Energy is where India competes globally in manufacturing and deployment in the present scenario. With these the market grew to be third largest in the world riding on the success of strong policy and regulatory framework. In 2011, India surpassed 3,000 MW in annual installations. This marked a 138% growth over a two year horizon; a remarkable achievement in times of global economic depression.

(v) Wind Energy is becoming increasingly popular because:
  • It is one of the most environment friendly, clean and safe energy resources. 
  • It has the lowest gestation period as compared to conventional energy. 
  • Equipment erection and commissioning involve only a few months. 
  • There is no fuel consumption, hence low operating costs. Maintenance costs are low. 
  • The capital cost is comparable with conventional power plants. For a wind farm, the capital cost ranges between 4.5 crores to 5.5 crores, depending on the site and the wind electric generator (WEG) selected for installation.
(v) With the Crude Oil prices shooting above $100 per barrel, the prospects of wind energy looks bright. Also, it has an equity capital of only Rs.7.11 crore and from that around 70% is blocked for trade (or there are very low floating stocks in the market). This gives premium to the stock price. 

(vi) The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.6.16 (CMP: Rs.5.28) while the book values some of its peer group companies like Suzlon Energy Ltd is Rs.9.72 (CMP: Rs.32.5), KSK Energy Ventures Ltd is Rs.64.25 (CMP: Rs.100) and NTPC is Rs.97.49 (CMP: Rs.153.45). This gives the share much room for appreciation. 

(vii) The Company has floated a 100% subsidiary "Veer Enterprise-GMBH" in Germany to explore the possibility of expansion in the field of non conventional energy with the help of collaboration with any company in this field with a wide experience and capital resources. The management hopes to turn this company into black soon. 

(viii) According to Projects Today, Veer Energy  and Infrastructure Ltd, in association with Shruti Power Projects, has been sanctioned a loan from Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) for its wind power project at Vinjalpur, in Jamnagar district of Gujarat. IREDA has signed a loan agreement worth Rs.52.56 crore with Veer Energy’s subsidiary, Shruti Power Projects, for setting up the 12 MW wind-based power project at Vinjalpur.
The project is being set up at a cost of Rs.75.60 crore. The company is expecting to commission the project by 31 August, 2014.

Conclusion: Veer Energy and Infrastructure Ltd, the Mumbai-based wind-power developer, bought solar panels for its first project in India from U.S.-based New Millennium Solar Equipment Corp, in 2012. At that time Veer Energy planned to install 400 thin-film panels of 58.5 watts each for a rooftop project in the Sanand district of the western Indian state of Gujarat. 
However, according to my close sources, now it has decided to concentrate more on the development of Wind Power. 
Besides, the share has not taken part in  a major way in the whirlwind rally post NDA government assuming office in Delhi. Also, the scrip has corrected sharply from its recent high of Rs.7.64 made on 12 June, 2014. The stock could be accumulated near the supports of Rs.5.10-5.20 for targets of Rs.7-8.4 in the short term. It is a Re.1, Face Value scrip. 

Pick of the Week:

Kernex Microsystems India Ltd: Basking on Huge land Holdings:

BSE Code: 532686
CMP: Rs.82.6

Book Value: Rs.105.43

Market Cap: Rs.103.25 Cr

 

Introduction: Established in 1991 and registered as 100% Export Oriented Unit with Software Technology Parks of India, Department of Electronics, Govt. of India, New Delhi, it is a ISO 9001:2000 certified company with expertise in Software, Hardware development and Systems Integration. It is presently engaged in the business of manufacturing, installing and maintaining of anti-collision systems as well as conceptualizing, designing, and developing certain railway safety and signal systems for Konkan Railways Corporation Ltd. These safety and signal systems are suitable for medium to low speed & density railway tracks like in India and other developing countries.

The company entered into a technology partnership with Konkan Railway Corporation Ltd, Navi Mumbai for design, engineering and development of anti-collision systems which provides safety to trains in Railways. It holds exclusive license for manufacturing, installation, commissioning and maintenance of anti-collision systems in India. It also has an outsourced facility for the Konkan Railways Corporation Ltd for manufacture and supply of ACDs and related accessories. It is also a technology partner for the development and implementation of ADDs for Metro Sky-Bus Urban Transportation System, Advanced Railway Signal Systems and other safety systems. It holds exclusive marketing rights of ACD systems all over the world except India.

Based on the concept and domain knowledge provided by Konkan Railway Corporation Ltd, it has developed the networked Anti-Collision Devices, using Global Positioning System, Radio Data Communication, Application Logics and Inter facing these with an Auto Breaking System developed by KRCL. With operations in USA and planned operations in Far East, Africa and Middle East, Kernex is truly a global player in the offing.

 

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 55.74% while the general public holds 44.26%. Moreover FII hold 1.55%, while mutual funds/UTI holds 1.11%.

 

Shareholding belonging to the category
"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

SMS Holdings Pvt Ltd

273,181 

2.19 

2

Somerset Emerging Opportunities Ltd

193,217 

1.55 

3

Enam Investment Services Pvt Ltd

137,500 

1.10 

4

UTI Mid Cap Fund

139,156 

1.11 

5

Vinaya Kumar Gavini

160,267 

1.28 

6

Challa Subrahmanay Sarma

186,212 

1.49 

 

 Total

1,089,533 

8.72 

 

 

Financials: For Q1FY10, the company came out with flat topline and a slightly subdued bottomline. The total income of the company for Q1FY10 came out to be Rs.5.82 Cr as against Rs.5.97 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q1FY10 dipped due to higher interest and tax component to Rs.52.3 lakhs as against Rs.1.07 Cr in the same period previous year.

 

Triggers:

  1. The company would benefit from the Indian Railway’s move to focus more on signal modernization and increased usage of automated signaling systems. Kernex Microsystems (India), the Hyderabad-based railway safety product manufacturer is the only player in anti-collision devices for the Railways and is set to capitalize on the public sector transporter’s thrust on ‘safety’.
  2.  Kernex Microsystem last year announced to foray into infrastructure projects and power sector, the two most happening sectors of today.
  3. The company has redrawn its plans to carry on the expansion programme, wherever required, as against plans mentioned in the prospectus dated December 6, 2005 in regard to scheduled time of completion. However, establishment of new manufacturing centre for ACID, ADDS and Advanced Signal Systems, construction of various buildings, including machinery & external services, electrical supply, roads, sewage &  compound  walls, gates  and  other related security arrangements and also training centre, cafeteria and transit accommodation for trainees, R&D Block, administration and  manufacturing  facility is nearing completion.
  4. The Phase-1 of development of ACD systems has been completed and pilot project commissioned in the Q1FY10. Railways have accepted the ACD system for deployment in all the Railways. Orders are expected through Konkan Railways Corporation for Southern, South Central and South Western Railways in the near future.
  5. Honourable Railway Minister during the Railway Budget speech on 26th February, 2008, stated that ACD is found working satisfactory and therefore, proposed to be deployed in South Central and South Western and Southern Railways.  According to Railways Corporate Safety Plan, ACD deployment is to be completed all over Indian Railways by 2013-2014. This is music to the investors in Kernex Micro Systems.
  6. The Company has signed a contract in November, 2008 with Egyptian National Railways, Egypt for development and supply of 136 Semi-Automatic Level crossing Gates. The Contract is under execution.
  7. Its unique product, Multi-Section Digital Axle Counter has been developed under technical collaboration on schedule time and is under cross approval by RDSO, Lucknow, Indian Railways. It is to be noted that the company earlier dropped the product called TAWD, consequent to the dropping of the same by the Indian Railways, in view of anticipated huge demand for the product called 'Digital Axle Counter’.
  8. Its R&D Division has done number of improvements and changes in the application software and hardware as required by the Konkan Railway Corporation. This includes AMSS, upgradation of ACD Reporting System & ACD survey automation system.
  9. The company’s International Marketing division continued marketing operation for selling the ACD and related systems in Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Pakistan, Australia and South Asian countries. Consequently the ACD System is short listed as one of the viable system for Egyptian Railways. South African Railways is also examining the possibility of integrating the ACD system with OBC system already installed in South African Railways, spoornet.
  10. The company has also been working on development of 'Multi Section Digital Axle Counter’ in collaboration with M/s Altpro, Zerob, Croatia.  Complete test data, technical details, company details and Safety case has been submitted to RDSO, Indian Railways. Discussions with Altpro, to jointly manufacturing the product and KMIL to Market the product to Indian Railways is in progress. Meanwhile M/s Altpro, Croatia has appointed Kernex as their Sole technology partner  / Altpro Agent / Joint Venture partner in Indian subcontinent  for their  product  range like Digital Axle Counter,  Train  detection  System, ATPS, SIFA, incident recorder and for other safety system.
  11. The company has entered into technology partnership with Tiffien Batch, Germany for providing Automatic & Semi Automatic Level crossing system, up to Sit 3 levels. This  should  help  Kernex  to  enter  into International markets in semi developed and under developed countries  like Africa  and South Fast Asia and Australia for the supply a  Level  Crossing Systems.
  12. The  company  has so far purchased over 243 Acres of land at  the  Warangal highway  near  Yadagirigutta and has also acquired over 157 Acres  land  at Amanagul,  Mehboobnagar  district and acquisition of further Land,  in  the area  is planned.  All equipments required for this project have been fully acquired. In case of SPAD, planning is in progress and the project is expected to be completed by Dec, 2009 as against the revised scheduled month of June, 2008. This is due to delay in finalization of specifications and requirements by Indian Railways.
  13. The development of Hot Box and Wheel Vibration Detection systems is in progress and is expected to be completed by 31st Dec, 2009 as against the revised scheduled month of Nov, 2008. This is due to delay in finalization of specifications. Another opportunity waiting in the wings is the provision of ATP system for Metro Trains that are planned in major cities of the country.  With technological collaboration, the company can become one of the important players in this field too.
  14. New Offices of the company are being established in Delhi, Chennai.  Guntakal and Hubli based on the release of new orders and also central survey centre at Hyderabad. Other  locations  will  be  taken up  in  phased  manner  as  per  the commencement of work ordered by Indian Railways. Kernex Microsystems (India) set up a 100% subsidiary in the US in September 2000 to implement software products of the company in that country. It is now engaged in developing and implementing software for the US corporate hospitals.

 

Concerns:

  • The biggest threat the company faces is from Multi Nationals, who want to sell their equipment in India. To gel over this competition, the Company is upgrading the technology at a fast pace.
  • Any delay in decision making, administrative and departmental procedures could delay the receipt of orders, making its facilities idle and under productive.

 

 

Chart Check and Conclusion: Considering the points mentioned above the stock could be purchased at the CMP of Rs.82.6 for 6 months to 9 months time frame for at least 50% appreciation from the current price. Moreover, an encouraging fact is that the promoters are technocrats and have wide experience in electronics/software industries, both in India and abroad and hence they possess a deep understanding of the business of the company. Another point which is worth noting is that the stock is trading below its book value of Rs.105.43

Now from the charts it has been found that the stock is in highly oversold territory and a small bounce cannot be ruled out in the short term. Though Bollinger bands are in buy mode however, other momentum parameters are still not giving an immediate buy for the scrip. Also, though the MACD is not giving an immediate buy signal but it could slowly drift towards the buy mode. The stock needs to close above Rs.85 on closing basis, to start rising again. If it crosses Rs.95 which looks probable the stock could touch as high as Rs.130. Please keep a SL of Rs.67 for any short term trade.

Pick of the week

DECCAN CHRONICLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

BSE Code: 532608

Face Value: Rs.2

CMP: Rs.37.85

EPS: Rs.5.5

P/E: 6.88

Dividend: 150%

Book Value: Rs.43.58

Market Cap: Rs.926.86 Cr

52-Week High/Low: Rs.224/Rs.36.15

 

Introduction: Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd, erstwhile Deccan Chronicle was formerly engaged in weekly and daily journals in Andhra Pradesh. The company acquired a news paper publishing business in December 2002; post which it established a strong foothold in the state. The company aims to be the leading publishing house in the country.

Deccan Chronicle, the flagship newspaper of the company is the leading English daily in Hyderabad and Andhra Pradesh. It publishes seven editions of the Deccan Chronicle in Andhra Pradesh from their printing presses located at Hyderabad/Secunderabad, Vijayawada, Rajahmundry, Vishakapatnam, Anantapur, Karimnagar and Nellore. It is the fourth largest circulated and read English daily in India. Besides Deccan Chronicle, the Company also publishes Andhra Bhoomi in Telugu (daily, weekly and monthly).

Deccan Chronicle covers latest local, regional, national and international news. The newspaper also provides business, sports, weather, city culture, beauty, and health related news and information through its online portal.

 

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 63% while the general public’s holding is 37%. Among the non-promoters are a number of Mutual Fund houses which holds substantial stake in the company.

Shareholding belonging to the category
"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

 EQ Advisors Trust - EQ/VQN Kqmpen Emerging Markets

2,715,990 

1.11 

2

 Deutsche India Equity Fund

3,166,001 

1.29 

3

 Merrill Lynch India Equities Fund Mauritius Ltd

3,542,473 

1.45 

4

 Ward Ferry Management Ltd A/C WF Asian Smaller

4,268,064 

1.74 

5

 Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc A/c Morgan

3,888,224 

1.59 

6

 Life Insurance Corporation of India

3,429,892 

1.40 

7

 Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund A/c Franklin India

3,200,000 

1.31 

8

 Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund A/c Morgan Stanley Growth

3,675,000 

1.50 

 

 Total

27,885,644 

11.39 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Financials: For Q3FY09, the company came out with almost flat topline and subdued bottomline, due to general downturn in the world economy.

The total income of the company for Q3FY09 rose to Rs.228.3 Cr as against Rs.226.5 Cr in the same period previous year. Deccan Chronicle Holdings’ third quarter net profit fell 75% to Rs25.67 crore over the corresponding period a year ago. The net profit of the company for Q3FY09 came out to be Rs.25.7 Cr as against Rs.102.94 Cr in the same period previous year. For the nine-month period ended 31 December, Deccan Chronicle posted a net profit of Rs131.92 crore, a 51% decline from Rs269.29 crore last year.

The operating and net profit margins of the company decreased considerably Y-o-Y. The net profit suffered due to high raw material price (Rs.129.04 Cr in Q3FY09 as against Rs.82 Cr], higher staff cost (Rs.13.53 Cr in Q3FY09 as against Rs.6.53 Cr), and almost doubling of other expenditure (Rs.17.73 Cr as against Rs.9.8Cr). However with the government expected to come out with special package for the media sector, the company’s top and bottomline could change dramatically on the positive side.

 

Investment Rationale:

  • Advertisement, the main growth driver: Advertisement is the key revenue driver in the Indian newspaper giant. DCHL’s advertisement revenue accounts for nearly 80%-90% of the total revenue. The media industry, both print and electronic, is facing the impact of the global financial crisis in the form of decline in advertisement revenue. However, representatives of the print media had already approached the I & B ministry seeking an upward revision in rates of government advertisements. The government has almost assured to some stimulus package to the media industry and to tide over the situation.
  • Foray into new business: The Deccan Chronicle group has floated an international cargo airline company “Flyington Freighters Ltd”. The new company, which will start services from July this year, has placed orders for purchase of six A330-200F cargo planes from Airbus at a cost of $175 million each. While the aircraft delivery is slated for 2009-2010, Airbus has agreed to lease two aircraft to the company in the mean time.
  • Launching New Editions: In the middle of last year, Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd launched its Mumbai Edition of "Financial Chronicle" in association with the "International Herald Tribune". During the year, 2008, DCHL entered the Business daily market by launching its newest print offering, Financial Chronicle simultaneously from Hyderabad and Chennai and extended its presence in Bangalore and Mumbai recently. Also, it announced a tie up with International Herald Tribune for launching its branded 'World Business Section' inside Financial Chronicle. The Mumbai edition of the Financial Chronicle would have four pages of IHT's World Business Section and its logo would be put on the front page of the daily. But one should remain cautiously optimistic on DCHL's foray into this space as it is already crowded with several offerings by other big Print Media houses. During May 2008, the company finally launched its much awaited Bangalore edition of Deccan Chronicle.
  • Strengthening its base in Southern India: The company had already launched the Bangalore edition of Deccan Chronicle and approved an initial investment of Rs.25 Cr in addition to the use of existing assets in other locations.
  • Inorganic expansion: The company is expanding its reach through inorganic expansions. It had acquired control of Asian age Holdings, which publishes newspaper “The Asian Age” in five cities. The acquisition will help strengthen the brand image of Asian Age at the back of increasing print run. The company had also acquired Odyssey India Ltd (Odyssey) for Rs.61.2 crore, in a cash deal. Odyssey is a growing leisure retail chain, is engaged in sale of books, music, toys, greeting cards and FMCG products. This move was intended to notch advertisement from FMCG giants.
  • Buy Back of Equity Shares: The Board approved the proposal for buy back of equity shares of Rs.2 each of the fully paid up equity share capital of the Company, at a price not exceeding Rs.100 per equity share aggregating to Rs.180 Cr from equity shareholders other than the Promoters and persons in control of the Company. The maximum number of shares to be bought back through the Stock Exchanges shall not exceed 3, 50, and 00,000 Equity Shares of Rs.2 each which represents 14.29% of the paid up capital of the Company. However the Promoter Holding in the Company shall not exceed 75% of the Paid up capital of the Company post buy back. The minimum number of Equity Shares (minimum buy back shares) to be bought back is 1,00,00,000 Equity Shares of Rs.2 each.
  • Stimulus Package for the Media Sector to boost growth: Taking note of the difficulties faced by the media industry due to the financial crisis, the government last week said it will shortly announce a stimulus package for the sector. The I & B ministry has already sent certain recommendations about the package to the Finance ministry and the government is expected announce it soon. Moreover, the good point is that the said package is mostly concerning the print media and hence the scrip is expected to be positively effected more than those in the electronic media.  
  • Indian Premier League (IPL)--Profitable in the first year itself: Deccan Chronicle had bagged the rights for the IPL team of Hyderabad for US $107mn payable over the next 10 years. The IPL Hyderabad rights would be a part of Sieger Solutions. DCHL named the team Deccan Chargers and spent around $5.9mn in annual fees to recruit players. While there is every chance that the venture would achieve breakeven only after a couple of years, management has indicated that the IPL venture turned profitable for the company in the first year itself. DCHL clocked around Rs107.5cr revenue and incurred expenses to the tune of Rs88cr during its first year of operations. Hence, it made a neat profit of Rs19.5cr from the venture. Also Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd will not sell its Indian Premier League cricket team, Deccan Chargers, as there were no buyers in the market, a top official said. Deccan will review the decision to sell Deccan Chargers in three years from now as this downturn cycle was likely to be extended till 2012. It is to be noted that, Deccan Chronicle had in 2008 paid $107.01 million for the Hyderabad team for Indian cricket board’s Twenty20 series for 10 years.
  • Sieger Solutions – Potential unlocking on the cards: Sieger Solutions, a wholly owned subsidiary of DCHL, was formed in July 2006 to handle media space selling for DCHL for a pre-defined commission. However, Sieger has stopped clocking revenues from this model and now houses all the internet portals – Deccanchronicle.com, Papyrusclubs.com and Mydigitalfce.com. For FY2008, Sieger Solutions registered revenues of Rs.72 Cr and PAT of Rs.35 Cr primarily driven by a subscription based model from a website called Papyrusclubs.com (student community forums) under which it has tied up with several institutes to publish and share campus news over the Internet. Recently, DCHL also entered into an outsourcing agreement with New York Times (NYT) to manage their internet properties out of India as well as some of the development activities connecting to the digital space. Sieger Solutions is expected to rake in incremental revenues of Rs.150 Cr from this arrangement in FY2009. DCHL is also in talks to sell 5% equity stake in Sieger Solutions to NYT.

 

Conclusion:  During FY2008-10, we can expect DCHL to post a CAGR growth of 16% in Revenue aided by 18% CAGR growth in advertising revenues and 8% CAGR in circulation revenues. On the Earnings front, we can expect DCHL to report a CAGR of 15% largely boosted by a decline in interest costs

However, on the operating front, the DCHL is expected to post a subdued growth owing to a sharp decline in Operating Margins on account of stiff competition in Chennai, initial losses on account of the Bangalore edition and the Financial Chronicle launch, and higher newsprint prices. Hence, we can expect DCHL to post a CAGR growth of 9% in EBITDA during FY2009-10.

However, there are valid concerned on DCHL owing to its poor quality of growth (funding working capital requirements through Balance Sheet), scalability issues (too much dependence on single region), poor corporate governance (management not delivering on promises made – buyback, un-locking in subsidiaries) and unsustainable Margins (60% OPM as against peer average of 20%). While management has addressed some of these concerns – reduced debtor days to 90 days by securitization with ICICI for a 12% discount, and initiated talks with NYT to unlock value in Sieger, still some more clarity on the same is expected. Moreover, depreciating rupee is negative for the company as it imports newsprints.

Growing awareness among the common mass is leading to the rise in the circulation of newspaper. The growth was triggered mainly by India and china. DHCL occupies second position in the print industry and caters to the most part of the Southern India. Its paper Deccan Chronicle is the most read newspaper in Andhra Pradesh, Chennai and Hyderabad. The company is also eying a substantial share in Bangalore and is expanding to newer geographies which include Mumbai and Pune. Revenues of the company will also be triggered, by the upcoming expansion plans of Odyssey.

At the CMP of Rs.37.85, the stock is trading at dirt-cheap valuations considering its future upsides from the Sieger Solutions deal with NYT and IPL’s good performance. The valuation can also be corroborated by the growing advertisement revenues and increasing subscription.

Note: This Report is from the Yesterday's (08-02-09) Sunday Report which was sent to the Paid Groups, Yesterday (8th February, 2009

Is Satyam Computers Services Ltd, a buy at Rs.39.95 ??!!

To understand this fact, let us consider the following points, a little meticulously .........

                         Satyam Computer Services Ltd

 

Scrip Code :  500376

Quarter ending :  September 2008

 

Shareholding belonging to the category
"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

 Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd A/C Aberdeeninternational India Opportunities Fund ( Mauritius ) Ltd

23,800,000 

3.53 

2

 Fidelity Management & Research Company A/C Fidelity Investment Trust - Fidelity Diversified International-Fund

23,000,000 

3.42 

3

 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd

16,621,682 

2.47 

4

 Lazard Asset Management LLC A/c Lazard Emerging Markets Portfolio

14,490,567 

2.15 

5

 Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd A/C Aberdeen Global Asia Pacific Fund

10,680,500 

1.59 

6

 Life Insurance Corportion of India

9,959,281 

1.48 

7

 Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt

8,203,186 

1.22 

8

 JP Morgan Asset Management Europe SARL A/c Flagship Indian Investment Co Maurities Ltd

8,179,448 

1.21 

9

 LIC of India Money Plus

7,941,345 

1.18 

10

 Swiss Finance Corporation Mauritius Ltd

7,515,806 

1.12 

11

 Government of Singapore

7,128,885 

1.06 

12

 Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company Ltd

7,096,342 

1.05 

 

 Total

144,617,042 

21.47 

 

The following Fund Houses sold shares yesterday in the open market due to too much panic created  by the "Media Terrorists":

 

1. SWISS FINANCE CORP MAURITIUS LTD===> Sold 7786759 shares at Rs.74.61
2. ABERDEEN INTERNATIONAL INDIA OPPORTUNITIES FUND MAURITIUS LTD===>Sold 9830811 shares of the company at Rs.43.41
3. ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGERS LTD ABERDEEN GLOBAL ASIA PACIFIC FUND===>Sold 4179064 shares at Rs.43.41 

 

Hence it can be concluded from the above data that Majority of Fund Houses feel that Satyam Computers Ltd will be able to come out of the mess created by its Founder Chairman Mr. B Ramalinga Raju??!!

Moreover, Sukumar Rajah, chief investment officer (CIO) of equity in India at Franklin Templeton Investments, which manages $4 billion of assets in the country, said in an e-mail, “This unfortunate development will be a short-term negative for market sentiment,”. Still, by forcing regulators to improve oversight, the incident “should be a Long Term Positive,” Rajah said.

 

According to a well known and reputed financial web-site, developing-nation stocks are trading near their cheapest levels in a decade after the global economic slowdown and a slump in commodity prices sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down 54 percent in 2008. In comparison, the MSCI World Index dropped 42 percent. Shares in the MSCI emerging-markets index trade at 8.8 times reported earnings, while developed shares fetch 11.5 times profit. Sensex companies trade at 9.5 times earnings.

Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., Satyam’s largest institutional investor as of September, said its investment outlook for India hasn’t changed. Funds run by Aberdeen own at least 5.12 percent of Satyam, according the Hyderabad-based company’s filings for the quarter ended Sept. 31.

“People will grow a bit more dispassionate, but you can say the same for the U.S. and elsewhere,” said Hugh Young, managing director at Aberdeen’s Asian unit, which manages $37.3 billion. “India has great companies that do the right things. Hopefully this is a one off.” He declined to say how many Satyam shares Aberdeen holds, or whether any were sold recently.

India’s $1.2 trillion economy may grow 7 percent in the year ending March 31, the slowest pace since 2003, according to government forecasts. The economy may expand at close to that rate in the next fiscal year as the global recession cuts exports and domestic demand wanes, Junior Industry Minister Ashwani Kumar said in New Delhi yesterday.

To understand the mammoth-ness of Satyam Computers Services Ltd let us take note of the following facts: Satyam Computer Services Ltd, employs 53,000 people, operates in 65 countries and serves almost 700 companies, including 185 Fortune 500 companies. More than half of its revenue comes from the United States.

The most encouraging news came from www.cnn.com which writes: "Analysts say Satyam is ripe for a takeover, and the government is expected to submit a formal report on the matter Thursday".

Therefore, can we construe that those highly skilled stock market professionals, who have purchased some shares of Satyam Computers Ltd will have a field day in the next few months??!!

However, the most horrifying part of this event is that that cash balance that was non-existent got certified by one of most reputed auditors in the world map, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.  This reputed auditor of Satyam Computers Ltd’s, declined to comment on the scandal, according to an e-mail from the New York- based firm’s public relations adviser, Edelman.

I had earlier discouraged all my  Paid Clients not to enter Satyam Computers Ltd, when it fell to around Rs.179---I was anticipting something like this, from my exprience durring the dotocm boom-bust cycle in the 1990s and early 2000. But is it time to buy this stock at the CMP of Rs.39.95, for the short term gains??!!

 

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd: Accumulate on all declines;

BSE Code: 531746

Face Value: Rs.10

CMP: Rs.17.70

Book Value: Rs.152.34

EPS: Rs.17.87

P/E: 0.99

Dividend: 25%

Market Cap: Rs.70.26 Cr

Buying Price: The scrip should be bought above Rs.18.5

 

Company Background: Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (PESL) was promoted by Mr. Chandra Mohan Reddy. It’s a 25 years old partnership firm converted into a public limited company in the year 1994. It pioneers in construction activities in the twin cities of Hyderabad-Secunderabad. Its Key developments include residential flats, townships, shopping malls, office buildings and group housings.

The company has developed around 6.7 million square feet over the past twenty years across more than 75 projects and a further 10.7 million square feet of land is under various stages of development. Prajay has a significant presence in the hospitality segment also, with three landmark ventures in the city: Prajay's luxury resort, the Celebrity Holiday Retreat and the 30 room Celebrity Boutique Hotel (located 500 metres away from the airport). Prajay has been the leader in identifying new locations that are today of strategic importance, which has given it huge cost advantage.

 

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 16.42% while the general public holds, 83.58%. Among the general public FIIs hold a whooping 58.78% of the shares of the company.

 

 

Shareholding belonging to the category "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

 

Sl. No.

Name of the Shareholder

No. of Shares

Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1

Copthall Maritius Investment Ltd

1,808,085

4.55

2

Goldman Sachs Investment Mauritius Ltd

852,543

2.15

3

Citigroup Global Markets (Mauritius) Pvt Ltd

2,130,796

5.37

4

ABN Amro Bank N.V. London Branch

1,518,952

3.83

5

Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana S.A.S.V.

1,487,223

3.75

6

Morgan Stanley Investments Mauritius Ltd

617,200

1.55

7

Swiss Finance Corporation Mauritius Ltd

1,047,459

2.64

8

S Madhuri Reddy

410,000

1.03

9

N Ravinder Reddy

2,020,100

5.09

10

Merlin Securities Ltd

5,336,134

13.44

11

GRA Finance Corprate

457,701

1.15

12

Clsa Mauritius Ltd

1,361,942

3.43

13

ABN Amro Bank N.V. London Branch

424,211

1.07

14

 BSMA Ltd

760,000 

1.91 

15

 Deutsche Securities Mauritius Ltd

2,358,893 

5.94 

 

 Total

22,591,239 

56.91 

 

 

Financials:  Though for Q2FY09, the total income was almost flat the net profit of the company suffered due to higher expenditure and higher depreciation, as can be seen below. The fact that the interest cost was more or less flat comparing Q-o-Q was a good sign. Moreover, the tax component was also less in Q2FY09, as compared to the same quarter previous year. However, due to the downturn, the operating margin and net profit margin took a quantum hit. However, this is going to correct in the next few quarters, due to the fall in the price of raw materials, in the last few quarters and also due to seasonal demand.

 

Standalone Result of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd

 

Type

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Un-Audited

Audited

 

Period Ending

30-Sep-08

30-Jun-08

31-Mar-08

31-Dec-07

30-Sep-07

31-Mar-08

 

No. of Months

3

3

3

3

3

12

 

Description

Amount (Rs. million)

 

Net Sales / Interest Earned / Operating Income

418.44

222.10

907.03

1,369.56

462.46

3,440.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Income

1.92

1.78

6.83

0.96

0.91

9.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Income

420.36

223.87

913.86

-

463.37

3,450.01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenditure

-270.24

-144.32

-904.12

-

-200.17

-2,061.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest

-27.06

-24.94

-11.61

-27.97

-27.69

-90.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit Before Depreciation and Tax

123.06

54.61

-1.87

-27.97

235.51

1,297.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depreciation

-9.11

-8.66

-7.89

-

-4.96

-22.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before Tax

113.95

45.96

-9.76

705.01

230.55

1,274.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax

-39.03

-15.92

-41.06

-49.75

-76.58

-246.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Profit

74.92

30.04

-50.82

655.26

153.97

1,028.67

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Capital

396.96

396.96

396.96

275.91

248.57

396.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic EPS after Extraordinary items

1.89

0.76

-1.85

25.47

6.58

37.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted EPS after Extraordinary items

1.89

0.76

-1.85

17.32

4.05

37.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nos. of Shares - Public

33,178,576.00

33,178,576.00

33,178,576.00

22,473,112.00

20,017,152.00

33,178,576.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Percent of Shares-Public

83.58

83.58

83.58

81.45

80.53

83.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Profit Margin

35.88

35.82

1.07

-

56.91

40.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Profit Margin

17.90

13.53

-5.60

47.84

33.29

29.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash EPS

2.12

0.97

-1.08

-

6.39

26.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

Notes

Notes

Notes

Notes

Notes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

Detailed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Highlights:

            The company earns 95% of its revenue from Real Estate and from Hospitality segment.

            In March 2007 the company posted a turnover of over Rs.2,000 million and profits of around Rs.800 million. It achieved Rs.1,000 million turnover in one quarter.

            Last year the company signed a joint venture with Sunway Group, Malaysia for development of residential condominiums projects in Hyderabad.

            Prajay Engineers' Land bank stands at approximately 850 acres 80% of which is in and around Hyderabad

            In the last twenty years of its existence, PESL has delivered 75 projects and developed around 6.7 million square feet.

 

Investment Rationale:

            The increased demand for residential units and commercial, office space for the IT and ITES companies suggest that the spurt will continue for years to come. An estimated inflow of Rs.5,508 billion investments in this sector will usher in development at a remarkable pace.

            Government thrust on infrastructure spending has given a tremendous boost to construction sector in terms of market size resulting in higher demand across the sector.

            Prajay Engineers Syndicate's base in the twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad offers it a myriad of opportunities in the real estate sector. The rapidly growing IT/ITES industry in Hyderabad has its roots in the proactive role of the state government pitching Hyderabad as the 'Hi-Tec' city of India.

            The Government's decision to launch Bio Tech Park and Fab City has further given a boost to technology driven growth in Hyderabad.

            The company currently has around 31 projects underway and plans to construct around 37.6 million square feet in the next four to five years. All projects have credit Rating of A+ by FIs.

            With its visionary approach and contemporary building practices, cutting edge management discipline, Prajay is at the forefront of imparting dynamism to infrastructure development industry.

            The company is foraying into Tier II cities of Andhra Pradesh like Vizag and Vijaywada, by FY10.

            The company want to invest around Rs.500-600 Cr in the coming years to develop the hospitality segment; to create 1000 room capacity by 2009 in the 5 star, 4-star and the 3- star business class categories; and to develop 31 projects including residential, commercial, retail and hospitality projects, aggregating to around 37.57 million square feet over the next five years.

            PESL’s 100% subsidiary Prajay Holdings, has received a commitment of FDI recently, to the tune of rupees equivalent of US $ 36 million for one of its prime projects at Hyderabad wherein a development of around 40 lac square ft has been planned by the company.

            The company is riding high on the real estate and infrastructure boom: it has set a target of reaching Rs.1000 crore turnover by FY10.

            Future Focus: Premium Apartments, Ultra-modern Townships, Development of Golf course, Independent premium bungalows, Development of 3 and 5 star hotels, Infrastructure development, Shopping Malls. These are all high volume and high margin activities.

 

Conclusion:

As the trend of spiraling growth continues, there are miles more to go, and further milestones to achieve. With 31 planned and ongoing projects, which will culminate into construction of around 38 million square feet and the residential segment comprising of about 84 percent of the total area under development, the company is expected to do well in future. The stock at the current market price provides an investment opportunity and one should invest in it taking a call for 12-15 months horizon for at least 50% from the CMP of Rs.17.7.

Chartical Indicators: For the short term, buy the scrip only if it closes above Rs.18.5 on a daily closing basis. The MACD and CCI are in perfect buy mode, while Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and Williams%R are also in buy mode.

Moreover, in the Candle Stick Chart Pattern, the inverted hammer, formation indicates that a significant decline has taken place in the stock price and the shorts are beginning to cover their positions---a very bullish indicator.

With this Candle Stick Chart Pattern, it is imperative to watch the next day's trading action. If the stock opens strong and remains strong during the day, then a key Reversal is likely in progress—a perfect time to bag the scrip.

 

Note: This stock was recommended to the Paid Groups in the Sunday Report of 30-11-08.