PICK OF THE WEEK:
Moser Baer Ltd
BSE Code: 517140

CMP: Rs.77
Book Value: Rs.100.02
Market Cap: Rs.1276.60 Cr
Dividend: 6%

Introduction: Moser Baer, is one of India's leading technology companies. Established in 1983, Moser Baer successfully developed cutting edge technologies to become the world's second largest manufacturer of Optical Storage media like CDs and DVDs. The company also emerged as the first to market the next-generation of storage formats like Blu-ray Discs and HD DVD.
Recently, the company has transformed itself from a single business into a multi-technology organisation, diversifying into exciting areas of Solar Energy, Home Entertainment and IT Peripherals & Consumer Electronics. Moser Baer has a presence in over 82 countries, serviced through six marketing offices in India, the US, Europe and Japan, and has strong tie-ups with all major global technology players. Moser Baer has the distinction of being preferred supplier to all top global OEM brands.

The company manufactures the entire spectrum of optical storage media products including Recordable Compact Discs (CD-R), Rewritable Compact Discs (CD-RW), Recordable Digital Versatile Discs (DVD-R), Rewritable Digital Versatile Discs (DVD-RW) and blue laser discs (Blu-Ray).
Shareholing Pattern: The promoters hold 16.17%, while the public holding is 83.71%.
Financials: Revenue for FY09 stood at Rs.23, 924.4 million, profit before depreciation, interest, exceptional items and tax stood at Rs.4, 530.3 million and losses after tax was Rs.1, 508.7 million. Turnover was impacted during the year by the difficult economic environment, partially offset by weakening of Rupee. The Company was able to hold its operating margin through production efficiencies and control on working capital. The Company continues to generate gross cash flow and the same was Rs.3, 462.8 million in FY09.

For Q3FY10, the total sales of the company came out to be Rs.59.2 Cr as against Rs.65.52 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q3FY10 came out to be Rs.3.23 Cr against a net loss of Rs.25.6 Cr in the same period previous year. Also both the net and operating profit margins improved considerably.
Triggers:

• Moser Baer launched a digital video processing and authoring facility in Chennai. Moser Baer announced successful trials of first Gen 8.5 Thin Film plant.
• The company will set up one of India's largest rooftop solar PV Installations in Surat.
• The Company continues to focus on both extension of geographic reach in emerging growth markets as well as on development & growth of new customer accounts across major product lines globally to cement its leading position on storage media. These efforts will renew focus following the recent royalty settlement and resultant increased levels of Business certainty.
• Moser Baer signed exclusive home video licensing deal with UTV Motion Pictures. The company concluded a strategic tie-up with LDK Solar.
• Moser Baer's thin film solar modules are now IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) certified. It also launched 600VA UPS with improved features for better performance, MP3 players, TFT Monitors, LCD TV, etc.
  With the significant reduction in input costs, and relatively stable pricing, the optical media business is a strong cash generator for the group.
• Moser Baer’s range of products makes it one of the world’s largest manufacturers and technology innovators in the optical media space. Its products are sold in 82 countries and it has six marketing offices in India, the US, Europe and Japan. In the Indian market, Moser Baer made its foray into the domestic optical storage market with the launch of the Moser Baer label in 2003. The company has blazed a new trail by introducing technologically innovative and truly world-class products in the Indian market.
• A notable development in 2008 was the emergence of Blu-Ray as the future high definition format, with Toshiba announcing the discontinuation of HD DVD investments. Blu-Ray offers a considerable increase in storage capacity with its 25 to 50 GB data capacity. Moser Baer, the first non-Japanese company to have developed its own technology for manufacturing Blu-Ray, stands to benefit from the exponential growth that will inevitably come in sales of advanced formats in the coming months. The company is set to leverage its R&D strengths to establish leadership position in terms of supply of Blu-Ray media for global consumption.
• The Company last year settled its long drawn licensing and patent dispute with Phillips. The amicable settlement has paved the way for Moser Baer to maintain and strengthen its market leadership position as the worlds leading manufacturer of optical storage media products.
• Moser Baer is also investing in nano technologies, which are in the R&D phase. This is a futuristic technology and because it will use very little material, it has the potential to bring down the cost of electricity generation considerably.
• The solar energy sector is increasingly realising its potential as a cost-effective alternative source of power. In the last fiscal, Moser Baer Photovoltaic Limited has consolidated its production facilities by installing 80 MW Module line and 80 MW Cell line manufacturing capacity. The cumulative efforts have resulted in it achieving a growth of more than 100% over FY08. Despite an increasingly difficult environment for Solar especially in 3rd & 4th quarter of the year, as the credit market froze, it continued to execute its strategy to make the Company, a global provider of high quality solar solutions. While the solar industry has grown astonishingly over last decade, however, it is still in a nascent stage of growth. Market structures differ between countries primarily on account of subsidies in place, ownership of installation, nature of customer and variability of grid connection. In FY09, Germany & Spain continued to dominate in Solar market and governments across the world have increasingly announced subsidies to promote renewable energy industry in general and solar, in particular.
• While the financial crisis has created a challenging environment in short term for the Industry, the fall in prices of Silicon and solar modules has helped the industry to accelerate towards grid parity and therefore, create greater opportunities for the company.
• The company would benefit from the following provision in the recent Budget:
  (a) In FY11, the renewable energy plan outlay up by 61% at Rs.10 billion.
  (b) To set up National Clean Energy Fund. Rs.5 billion has been set aside for the setting up solar and small hydro units.
  (c) To set up 20, 000 MW of Solar Power by 2022.
  (d) To waive excise duty on photovoltaic cells and solar panels.

Conclusion: Considering all the facts mentioned above it has been found that the scrip is highly undervalued and should move up in the days to come. Medium and long term investors can buy the scrip at any price above Rs.70 for a short term target of Rs.92. In the long term the scrip could make new highs and could cross Rs.200 in the days to come.
From the charts it has been that most of the parameters are in buy mode. Besides this the stock is in the highly oversold territory and a bounce is expected very soon.

Note: The stock (This report was also sent to them) was recommended to the Paid Groups in this Sunday (28th February, 2010) .

Refex Refrigerants: Updates:

Refex Refrigerants Ltd came out with better than expected results for the Q3FY10, though the net sales dipped a bit. The total sales of the company the Q3FY10 came out to be Rs.6.92 Cr as against Rs.10.16 cr in the same period previous year. But what is amazing to note is that Profits from ordinary activities before tax is Rs.20.23 lakhs against a net loss of Rs.7.83 Cr in the same period previous year.

Also the net profit for the Q3FY10 came out to be Rs.12.16 lakhs against a net LOSS of Rs.4.57 Cr in the same period previous years.The company's wind farm project is going on smoothly and hopefully the company hopesa to complete the project within the next 6 months time frame. The company is also expected to free its pledged shares within a very short time. According to the sources close to me, it could get freezed in the next 3 months time frame.

The company's season has started and hopefully from the Q1FY11, Refex Refrigerants would start to show better performance.......

It is presently not using its full capacity due to economic downturn, which affected both its top and bottomlines. However, it is hoping to show better performance in the days to come, as the economy gathers steam. Its products are envionment friendly and hence it has a long way to go in the days to come. HOPING IT SHOW THE 2007--2008 PERFORMANCE GOING FORWARD. Meanwhile they have updated their web-site and you can go through the same in your free time.

Pick of the Week:
Alok Industries Ltd

BSE Code: 521070

CMP: Rs.24.6

Book Value: Rs.35.47

EPS: Rs.3.41

Market Cap: Rs.1490 Cr

Introduction: Alok Industries Ltd is a fully integrated textile company and is amongst India’s largest textile manufacturers. It was established in 1986 as a private limited company, with its first polyester texturing plant being set up in 1989. It became a public limited company in 1993. Over the years, it has expanded into weaving, knitting, processing, home textiles and garments. And to ensure quality and cost efficiencies it has integrated backward into cotton spinning and manufacturing partially oriented yarn through the continuous polymerization route. It also provides embroidered products through Grabal Alok Impex Ltd., its associate company.
Alok Industries Ltd, has recently entered the domestic retail segment through a wholly owned subsidiary, Alok Retail India Limited, with a chain of stores named ‘H&A’ that offer garments and home textiles at attractive price points. It has also ventured into the realty space through wholly owned subsidiaries with investments in some prestigious projects in Mumbai. The company has focused on world class infrastructure, best-in-class technology, uncompromising quality standards and dynamic product innovation. Added to these has been its constant desire to surpass customer expectations. Today, Alok Industries Ltd represents the future of India’s textile industry.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 36.69%% while the general public holds 63.20% of the shares of the company. The FIIs hold 20.92%, while the DIIs hold 12.59% of the shares of the company.
Financials: For Q2FY10, the company came out with good set of numbers. The total sales of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.975.5 Cr as against Rs.698.14 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.57 Cr as against Rs.42.15 Cr in the same period previous year; however, this on an expanded equity capital of Rs.605.08 Cr as against Rs.196.97 Cr in the same period previous year.
Triggers:
• The company charting out strategies under which it would open stores in Malls after analyzing the cost effects.
• The company has a blue chip international customer base comprising of world renowned retailers, importers and brands. With commencement of spinning of cotton yarn, the company has achieved complete integration.
• The Terry Towel project, which was part of Phase I & II, was commissioned in FY09. The Company has also successfully commissioned Continuous Polymerisation (CP) Plant at Saily (Silvassa). Phase III and Phase IV of the expansion of the Company's capacities, aggregating to Rs.1, 100 Cr and Rs.1, 180 Cr stands largely completed; the balance portion is progressing well and is expected to be completed very soon.
• The Company's textiles operations have shown encouraging growth trends, both in the domestic and in the exports markets. The capacity expansions which the Company had been putting in place for the past few years are nearing completion and the volume increases are starting to be reflected in operations and sales.
• Marketing initiatives across the world have both de-risked Alok Industries Ltd as well as contributed to a healthy order book. The Company believes that its scale of operations and integration across the textile chain will, in future, offer significant advantages in both cost and revenue.
• Given the increasing spending capacity of the middle-class consumer segment in India, retail remains an exciting prospect over the medium term. The Company's retail initiative is operated through its wholly owned subsidiary Alok Retail India Ltd., which has opened ninety 'H&A' stores across India. The Company wishes to expand the 'H&A' footprint to over 300 stores during the current financial year.
• The Company's investment in Grabal Alok (UK) Ltd, as part of the Group's overseas retail foray is now starting to show improved results. The stores, which are spread across the UK and offer quality apparel and fashion products at affordable prices, are also in the process of being rebranded from “qs’ to “Store Twenty One”. The second half of FY 2008-09 has reflected improved topline--thanks to cost rationalization and efficiency maximization measures, the 'middle line' has also shown improvement. This encouraging trend has been carried on during the first quarter of the current financial year as well.
Conclusion: From the charts it has been found that the stock is trading above it 50 and 200 days moving averages, which is encouraging. Considering the other chartical parameters it can be concluded that the stock can be purchased at any price above Rs.24 for a target of Rs.31—32 in the next 30 days time frame.

Note: The stock was recommended to the Paid Groups on 19th January, 2010, in the Sunday Report.

Pick of the week:
Gwalior Chemical Industries (GCIL):
BSE Code: 532764
Book Value: Rs.80.33
EPS: Rs.38.69
P/E: 2.3
Market Cap: Rs.219.62
Accumulate: To be bought around the strong support of Rs.86
Target: Rs.105—Rs.115
Time: 6months

Introduction: Gwalior Chemical Industries (GCIL) is a producer of specialty chemical products at its two chemical facilities located at Nagda (Madhya Pradesh) and Ankleshwar (Gujarat). It has built a formidable presence in the specialty chemical industry and extensively catered to the needs of customers covering the agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, dyes and flavours and fragrance industries. It also manufactures and sells special Viscose Dye Pigments catering to the textile sector. It caters to various industries like agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and dyes industries. It also produces Chlorotoluene range of products like benzyl chloride, benzaldeyhde, benzotrichloride, benzyl alcohol and its other derivatives. It also produces sulphur chloride range of products.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 59.98% while the general public holds 40.02%. The FIIs hold 2.90% while the Mutual Funds hold 8.37% of the shares of the company.
Triggers:
• The first and the foremost reason for recommending the scrip is the growth in the agrochemical segment where the growth in the agricultural sector is expected to drive the growth. With government expected to go for another round of green revolution the demand for the same is expected to increase.
• The Company has decided a buyback of shares of the Company. In the first phase, the Company proposes to buy back 40, 50,000 shares at Rs.120 per share through a tender offer route in this financial year.

• The Company has completed the transfer of its chemical business at Nagda, Madhya Pradesh and wind mill businesses at Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra to Lanxess India Pvt. Ltd. on September 01, 2009. The Company will invest the sale proceeds in power generation business and manufacturing of high value specialty chemicals at Ankleshwar. The cash derived from sale,
after initial distribution to Shareholders, when put to use in power generation and in building the Ankleshwar facility into specialty chemical hub will yield superior return to the Shareholders. This sale shall enable the Company to distribute some cash back to the Shareholders as well as invest in the growth of the businesses.

• The company gave a dividend of 12 % (Rs.1.20 per share) for the financial year ended 31st March 2009 same as in the FY08, inspite of the challenging market conditions. The total amount of dividend for the year ended 31st March, 2009 is Rs.296.12 Lacs.

• Expansion Plans and the year under review: In the year under review (FY10) the Company has earmarked upon expansion of capacities and infrastructure facilities thereof outlined herewith along with the expected dates of completion. Sr. Name of product Existing Expected Completion
No. Capacity Capacity
1. Chlorotoluene & its Derivatives: from 84100 TPA to 137000 TPA completion on September, 2009
2. Sulphur Oxy Chloride & its Derivatives: from 41000 TPA to 41000 TPA--> Completed
3. Pigments; from 2400 TPA to 3000 TPA--> Completed
4. Others: From 115700 TPA to 170400 TPA--->Completed
5. Co-generation power plant - NIL 4 MW Power & 45 TPH Steam Jan, 2010
• The Company has achieved an international award instituted by Indian Merchant Chamber,
Mumbai. The award is given to the company in manufacturing category for adopting world class
practices in quality management systems and for creating excellence in business performance and supply chain.

• The Company has also incorporated a wholly owned foreign Subsidiary Company in the name of Gwalior Chemicals LLC in May, 2008 under the law of the United State of America, with the
objective of carrying on business of selling products manufactured by it in the American Markets.

• The Company has also incorporated a wholly owned Indian NBFC Subsidiary in the name of GCIL Finance Limited with the initial paid up capital of 250 lacs.

• The company has adopted TPM (Total Productive Maintenance), designed by JIPM (Japan
Institute of Plant Maintenance), to improve the efficiency and performance of the plants by
eliminating Break down Losses and Defects.

• The Company has handled adverse effects of largest recession of century quite well. Its well
designed product basket with recognized quality coupled with strong domestic industrial base has enabled it to deal situation squarely. The products of the Company are focused primarily on the agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, dyes and flavors & fragrance industry and as a result, its
operations are significantly influenced by the trends of the aforesaid industries. The Company
sees a robust growth in the industries in supplies too. On the other hand availability, cost and
quality of inputs like chlorine, steam and electricity have a significant impact on the working of
the Company.

• As regards the financial performance, the company posted good results for FY08 and FY09 as a whole. On a standalone basis, the total sales of the company for FY09, came out to be Rs.381.4 Cr as against Rs.295.7 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for FY09, came out to be Rs.27.7 Cr as against Rs.24.32 Cr in the same period previous year. This gave an EPS of Rs.11.23 in FY09, as against Rs.9.85 in the same period previous year. For Q2FY10, the total sales of the company came out to be Rs.57.53 Cr as against Rs.74.77 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10, came out to be Rs.76.5 Cr as against Rs.7.03 Cr in the same period previous year. The EPS of the company for Q2FY10, came out to be Rs.30.99 as against Rs.2.85 in the same period previous year.
Conclusion and Chart Check: Though the operating profit margins are in pressure but the Company is expected to maintain its margins in future as it will be able to pass on the cost to the clients. With good amount of rise in demand and increased capacity the valuations are expected to improve and hence, the investors can slowly accumulate the scrip near the support of Rs.86, for a target of Rs.105 115, in the next 6 months time frame. The stock may not rise immediately though Bollinger bands, MACD and Stochastic are more or less in the buy mode. It is not a momentum counter and hence its rise will be slow but steady. The stock is best suited for highly volatile markets.

Note: The stock was recommended to the Paid Groups on 20-12-09 in the Sunday Report.

AMBALAL SARABHAI ENTERPRISES LTD.

BSE Code: 500009,

Face Value: Rs.10

CMP: Rs.14.05

EPS: Rs.7.55

Target: Rs.22--25

Time Frame: 3 months time frame.

The company's principal activity is the manufacture and marketing of pharmaceutical products and bulk drugs. Its products are injectables, liquid, ointments, powders, tablets and capsules, vaccine and serum of penicillin, tetracycline or derivatives and Vitamin C and it derivatives. It operates in two segments: Pharmaceuticals and Electronics. The plants are located at Vadodara and Ahmedabad.

The promoter holding has increased from 26.12% in September, 2008 to 30.43% in September, 2009 quarter. Or on a Y-o-Y basis the promoters' holding has increased, which is a good sign. Now if you see, its peer group, then we would get surprised to find the names Cipla Ltd and Sun Pharma Ltd.

Some of the triggers are mentioned below:
* The Bulk Drugs plant of Synbiotics Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company at Luna has already commenced production activities.
* The Company has acquired manufacturing and marketing Company i.e. Suvik Hitek Pvt. Ltd. The Ethical Division has re-launched the products of Suvik and Sarabhai Chemicals in market as planned with new team of field force who has promoted products to the selected doctors in India.

* The Oncology Division is also strengthened by adding new products and team of field force. During the year under review, Oncology Division has launched two new products viz. Fludagem & Xtinib.

* For the year 2009-10, Electronics Division of the Company has lined up high end products for marketing from reputed manufacturers and has also owned new products like Turbidity meter, Hb meter, Vis- Doublebeam Spectra, etc.

* Telerad Division would try to get the maximum possible orders for Spares/other Peripherals keeping Dollar business and system sales improving.

* During FY09, the Company has promoted a Company viz. Vovantis Laboratories Pvt. Ltd., a pharmaceutical specialists with a vision to establish a state of the art manufacturing facility specializing in Novel Effervescent drug delivery system. In a short span of time, this company is having presence in the US, Europe and Asian markets with its own offices in the respective places.

* Asence Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, incorporated in the US specializes in the supply of quality pharmaceutical preparations (Finished Dosage Forms and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) to international markets. Asence Inc., through the company, pursues a multi-layered growth strategy combining internal product development, strategic alliances and collaboration with cGMP manufacturing partners, acquisitions of products and leverage of infrastructure in India and the US.

* The Company is under massive restructuring process of its business to strengthen and improve its over all financial condition. In order to reduce cost, the Company has announced VRS Scheme and many employees have opted for the said Scheme including accounts officials and staffs.

Now if you go through the June, 2009 quarter results we will find that they were good as to compared to the same quarter previous year.

I remember a couple of years back, the stock raced from Rs.12 to around 32--33 hitting continuous upper circuits....this could be repeated this time also.

The stock has consolidated in a range for a long time before starting to move up.....Hence it should be prudent to accumulate the scrip around the CMP of Rs.14.05. The stock yesterday moved up with good volumes.

Pick of the Week
Tulsyan NEC Ltd:
BSE Code: 513629
CMP: Rs.56.35
Book Value: Rs.109.97
Dividend Yield: 3.55%
Market Cap: Rs.28.18 Cr

Introduction: Incorporated in 1974 as National Engineering Cmopany, Tulsyan NEC Ltd (TNEC) manufactures rolled steel products. It tapped the capital market in 1994 for implementing a modernization-cum-expansion project. Its steel products include finished steel (84,000 TPA), MS Ingots (36,000 TPA) and MS billets (72,000 TPA). The company later on diversified into manufacturing packaging products such as HDPE/PP woven sacks & flexible intermediate bulk containers, the capacity of which at present stands enhanced to 28,000 TPA.
The company’s steel and TMT bars find application in housing & construction, power, Defense & Railways. Its bulk containers are used for packing cement, sugar, chemicals & fertilizers etc.

It is the Largest Multi-Location Steel Manufactures in South India, for TMT Steel Rebars. It has a wide spread manufacturing capacity, with the latest state-of-the-art technology. It has manufacturing facilities at Gumdipundi & Ambattur in Chennai, Bangalore, Coimbatore and Goa. It uses quality Billets which is manufactured in-house, conforming to IS: 2830/1992.

Its area of service covers the four Southern States including South Maharastra and Union Territories of Goa and Pondicherry. It supplies, in sections 8-40 mm dia & in grades of Fe-415, Fe-500, Fe-500 CRS (Corrosion Resistant Steel), all conforming to BIS Standards.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 65.59% while the general public holds 34.41%. The promoters have slightly increased their stake in Q2FY10, speaking Q-o-Q figures.

Financials: On a standalone basis, the total income of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.152.3 Cr as against Rs.217.7 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.1.5 Cr as against Rs.3.2 Cr in the same period previous year.

On a consolidated basis, the total income of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.153.77 Cr as against Rs.220.89 Cr in the same period previous year. The Net Profit after Mino Inter & Share of P & L came out to be Rs.1.77 Cr as against Rs.4.43 Cr in the same period previous year. However, the EPS of the company in Q2FY10, is alone on consolidated basis is Rs.3.54, which is good. The company is expected to clock an EPS of Rs.10—11 on FY10 on consolidated basis. For FY09, the consolidated EPS of the company was a whooping Rs.23.17.
Triggers:
(i) The Company's products are TMT Bars, Billets and Ingots in the steel division and in synthetic division it is PP Woven Sacks, FIBC and Woven Fabric. During FY09 with the completion of the enhanced capacity, the company has commenced the manufacture of ground cover and ventilated fabric. TMT Bars are used in the Construction Sector and the plastic products cater to the packaging needs of various industries such as Cement, Fertilizers, Food grains, Sugar, etc.

(ii) Tulsyan NEC Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding for purchasing 100% shares of M/s. Chitrakoot Steel & Power P Ltd, Gummidipoondi, Tamil Nadu, a Sponge Iron manufacturing plant having capacity of 30,000 M.T per annum. The Company will be enhancing the Sponge Iron capacity and adding waste heat recovery Power Plant.

(iii) With the government stepping up expenditure on development of infrastructure like roads, ports, power, etc, the demand for steel is bound to increase. In anticipation of this demand increase, the company: (a) will have in place additional rolling capacity of 15 0000 mt/pa, during the current year, (b) Increase dealership network to over 200 dealers with more focus on rural sector, (c) Install a power plant of 35 MW at Gummudipondi for captive consumption, (d) Carry out backward integration by taking over the sponge unit in Gummudipondi. These expansions will not only make the company as the largest producer of TMT bars in South India among Secondary Producers but will also give it a competitive edge, by facilitating reduction of power and raw material costs.

(iv) The Cost of Steel Scrap and power are major costs incurred for producing Steel Rods. Volatility in the price of scrap affects the company's margin. To tide over the power requirement the company would be installing a 35 MW power plant at Gummudipoondi, as mentioned earlier.
(v) With globalization and liberalization the demand gap is ever increasing. With almost 3 decades of presence in the industry the company has earned a good name for its commitment to quality and timely supply. With the enhancement in production capacities the company is well poised to cater to a bigger market.
(vi) The raw materials for Steel Making are M.S. scrap, Sponge and for TMT Bars is Billets. PP granules are used for manufacture of plastic packaging products. This raw material is available in abundance within the country and can also be freely imported. Being in the commodity market the company continuously makes efforts for reducing the cost of production to sustain its margins.
(vii) The year 2008-09 witnessed an unprecedented economic crisis world over resulting in slowdown in almost all the sectors. While India hasn't witnessed the kind of major turmoil witnessed in some advanced economies it has certainly been impacted adversely. In the back drop of this crisis the working of this company has also been affected to some extent. FY09 saw shortage of power in Tamil Nadu and this affected the working of the Company. In the current year the power cut has been relaxed from 40% to 20% and it is expected to be relaxed further.
(viii) During Q2FY10, Wind farms of the Company have generated 1453368 units of Electricity and also the capacity of the Rolling Divisions at Gummudipoondi, in Tamil Nadu, has been increased by 150000 MT of TMT Bars and commercial production has also been started same period. The full benefit of this effect will however arise in the financial year 2010-11.
(ix)It has also signed a MoU with Suhayl Abdul Mohsin AL-Shoaibi & Sons Holding Company, Saudi Arabia for a proposed steel plant of 5,00,000 TPA in Saudi Arabia.
(x) In the plastics division, TNEC plans to install new capacity of about 2,000 TPA in its new facility at Kurnool (AP), which is expected to go on stream very soon.

Conclusion and Chart Check: Considering all the points mentioned above it have been found that the stock is a very good buy (on dips) for the medium to long term perspective. This essentially means that scrip would generate good returns for the shareholders over a period of 9 to 12 months time frame. Even at the current market price of Rs.56.35, the dividend yield of 3.55% is quite attractive. From the charts it has been found that some of the parameters are in buy mode. However, the stock has made a very strong bottom around Rs.51.5 which will be difficult to break on the downside and hence a little safe bet. The stock should be accumulated on all dips for the short term (3 months) target of Rs.XX (This portion is only for the Paid Groups). However, in the medium to long term the targets could be as high as Rs.XX (This portion is only for the Paid Groups).

Note: The Stock was recommended to the Paid Groups in the last week's Sunday Report.

Scrips which needs to be accumulatd at the Current Market Prices:

Government's recent move related to broadcast of Satellite Television Signals could be positive for Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd and Sanguine Media Services Ltd.

Energy Development Ltd/NEPC India Ltd/Indowind Energy Ltd, will get positively affected because the government will give 50 paise as incentive for a unit of electricity generated by Wind Power Producers for 4-10 years.

Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd (Book Value: Rs.11.78, EPS: Rs.1.39, P/E: 3.97 against industry P/E of 33.32, Market Cap: Rs.60.83 Cr only, while the value of Tagore Theatres alone is around Rs.100 Cr. So the business of the company and other assets are free for the shareholders at this price) should be accumulated at the CMP of Rs.5.52 for good appreciation in the next few months. The company could launch the channels in the next 3 to 4 months time frame, according to the sources close to me. It is also planning to show its channels in US and UK, which is a great news for the shareholders.

Now, if we go through its shareholding pattern we would see some very important developments: The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) hold 17.95% stake in the company, while the corporate bodies hold 14.25% of the shares of the company as of 30th September, 2009. This shareholding figure of FIIs have been constant considering Y-o-Y figures. What I mean to say is that even after such massive unwindings of FIIs from many counters, their holding in Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd, has remained constant in the last one year, which is very encouraging developments for the shareholders.

Moreover, the holdings of the corporate bodies has increaesd from 13.24% to 14.25%, considering Y-o-Y figures--this is also another positive development of the company.

Let us take a look who are holding shares of Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd:Sophia Growth (9.34%), Shriram Credit Company Ltd(4.74%), Religare Securities Ltd (1.30%), Mavi Investments (3.39%), etc.

Besides this, according to charts, the stock is in the highly oversold territories and a normal bounce is expected, which is confirmed by Bollinger bands and daily RSI. Any cross-over could take the scrip to around Rs.XXX (for Paid Groups) ranges, by the 1st week of January, 2010. A must buy at the CMP of Rs.5.52.

Accumulate Enery Developments Company Ltd (BSE Code: 532219) at the CMP of Rs.57.5, as the company is doing excellently well. Energy Development Company Limited (EDCL) was incorporated in the year 1995 to participate in the country's renewable energy development program for sustainable sevelopment.

The Company simultaneously generates clean, green electricity from water and wind in its own power plants as well as develops energy and infrastructure projects for other developers. The Company has targets to develop and own around 500 MW of new Hydro Electric Power Projects at an approximate capital outlay of Rs.7000-8000 crores in the next 5-7 years.
The company has successfully deployed its expertise and technology to develop energy and infrastructure projects for other developers. It has created a niche for itself in providing total hydropower solutions for small hydro as well as large hydropower plants. Its services include feasibility studies, project management services, engineering, procurement and construction services and turnkey delivery.

It also provides services related to third party operation and maintenance of hydropower plants and rehabilitation, renovation, modernisation and uprating of older plants. The company is forward-looking and technology-driven with rich experience and expertise across all disciplines of power engineering, consulting, management and operational services.
The company is doing the following:

• Harangi Project
• Ullunkal HEP
• Harangi Stage- II HEP
• Karikkayam HEP
• Arunachal Projects
• Hassan Wind Project
• Chitradurga Wind Project
• Engineering, Consultancy & Project Management
• EPC Contracts
• O & M Services
• Rehabilitation & RM & U
• Bagasse Cogeneration (Eligible for Carbon Credits)

The Company demonstrated modest growth in overall business in FY09. It has commissioned new projects and acquired subsidiaries. The total turnover for the year is Rs. 117.2 Crores (Previous Yr. – Rs.65.7 Crores) The Company has two segments, namely Generation Division and Contract Division.
Generation Division:

Until FY08, the Company had only one 9 MW Harangi Hydro Electric Project in the State of Karnataka and a Wind Mill having a capacity of 1.5 MW at Hassan District. During the year, your company has successfully commissioned 7MW, Ullankal Hydro Electric Project, in the State of Kerala and also a 1.5 MW Wind Mill at Chitradurga in the state of Karnataka.

Saleable electricity generated from –(a) Hydel Power Plants were 28.036 million units (Previous Yr. – 29.03 million units) (b) Wind Mills were 4.393 million units (Previous Yr. – 1.18 million units).

Contract Division: In view of the huge spending in infrastructure in the country, your Company is targeting the growth, by participating in the infrastructure related projects such as roads, power plants, buildings etc by using the capabilities developed in house, over the years. Hence, the Contract Division was launched, which is steadily growing. This division has earned revenue of Rs. 106.23 crores (Previous Year Rs. 54.74 crores).

This scrip is a must buy especially in view of the improving fundamentals, considering the recent sequential quarterly numbers. The Q3FY10, numbers are also expected to be good, besides this lot of inter-company mergers would add more teeth to the fundamentals of the company. A must buy at the CMP of Rs.57.5 for some superb targets. From the absurd current market price of Rs.57.5, this is to give very good returns to the shareholders, believe me.

PICK OF THE WEEK:

Alchemist Realty Ltd

BSE Code: 532114

Face Value: Rs.2

CMP: Rs.14.54

Market Cap: Rs.107.74 Cr

EPS: Re.0.11

Introduction: Formerly known as Pan Packaging Industries Ltd, the Company’s principal activity at present is to develop real estate property. Pan Packaging Industries Private Ltd. was originally incorporated as Private Limited company on 03 March 1983 to manufacture and supply Corrugated Boxes. The name and style of the company was changed as Pan Packaging Industries Limited on 25th April 1995. The company started its commercial production in 13-03-1984 which was its first phase of operations with an installed capacity of 900 TPA. Alchemist Realty is now widely recognized as one of the growing innovative real estate companies in India.

The Company now engages in the acquisition and development of real estate and infrastructure facilities in India. It real estate development projects include housing projects, cottages, recreation clubs, and other infrastructure projects. The company which was formerly known as Pan Packaging Industries Limited changed its name to Alchemist Realty Limited in 2006. Alchemist Realty Limited is based in Mumbai, India.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 42.3 % while the general public holds 57.70% according to the latest data available.

Shareholding belonging to the category "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No. of Shares
Sl. No.	Name of the Shareholder	No. of Shares	Shares as % of Total No. of Shares
1	Endogram Leasing & Trading C	8,605,580	11.61
2	Basic Soft Solutions Pvt Ltd	4,878,500	6.58
3	Manbhavan Buildwell Pvt	2,442,285	3.30
4	Basics Soft Solutions Pvt Ltd	1,917,750	2.59
5	Amandeep	2,635,200	3.56
6	Archna Singh	1,560,000	2.11
7	Sunil Talwar	1,052,695	1.42
8	Varinder Pal Singh	912,730	1.23
9	HS FII Investments Ltd	7,115,000	9.60
10	CLSA Mauritius Ltd	7,112,000	9.60
11	Somerset Emerging Opport	1,143,944	1.54
	Total	39,375,684	53.14

Financials: In FY09, though the net sales of the company increased but the net profit declined due to higher investments in Land Plots & Constructed Properties. The net income of the company for FY09 came out to be Rs.101.55 Cr as against Rs.82.87 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company came out to be Rs.1.03 Cr in FY09 as against Rs.4.54 Cr in the same period previous year. In Q2FY10, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.28.071 Cr as against Rs.5.7 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.24.62 lakhs as against Rs.12.43 lakhs in the same period previous year. During the quarter ended September, 2009, the company declared a divided of 5%, i.e.Re.0.10 per equity share of Rs.2 each for the year FY09.

Triggers:

• During the year, the Company acquired lands at various locations all over the country and is in the process of launching many projects in Real Estate Development which includes housing projects, cottages, recreation clubs and other infrastructure projects. The Company has also finalized Joint Venture agreements with various Companies for launch of prestigious projects.
• In the last fiscal the Company issued 7040100 equity shares of the face value of Rs.10 each as bonus shares to the shareholders in the ratio of 1:1 i.e. One bonus share for every one scare held by the shareholders as on record date i.e. 7th February, 2008. This somewhat proves that it is in investor friendly.
• Alchemist Realty Limited is a real estate company, for which land is a key asset. The Company believes in acquiring lower cost land in suburban area and transforming them into modem and utilizes land. With this philosophy intact, the Company has continued to develop its land bank. This is quite evident in FY09 results, when the company invested more in assets as compared to the same value in previous year. Needless to say in FY08 and FY09, the Company acquired newer land parcels in various parts of North India.
• Alchemist Realty Limited is focused on developing itself as a premium brand that enjoys a strong sense of trust amongst its stakeholders. There has been a constant endeavor to focus on creating a brand that embodies all the Company’s strategic goals and corporate values. In the real estate space, the Alchemist Realty Limited stands for: (a) Ability to identify and procure land in strategic locations, (b) Experience in executing large projects, c) Superior design, construction and development.
• The company is exploring various opportunities in the real estate business and has also finalized Joint Venture agreements with various other players in the Real Estate for launch of prestigious projects. With the continuous trend of shifting population from rural areas to urban areas, increase in the size of population, the demand of both residential and commercial properties is showing an upward trend. Moreover, it is now widely believed that the US Fed will happily risk inflation in order to avoid deflation, Because the US Fed is far more worried about the possibility of deflation (systematically falling prices) caused by a double-dip recession. Japan in the 1990s suffered economic stagnation for a decade because of deflation, and the US is determined to avoid that path. So, it will keep interest rates at virtually zero for the foreseeable future. So this is expected to increases money supply by over a trillion dollars in the world and that too at virtually zero interest. The dollar is an international currency whose impact is felt across the world. Investors and speculators everywhere know that growth prospects are much better in emerging markets than in the West. So they are borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars at dirt-cheap rates to buy stocks, real estate and commodities in emerging markets. Hence, asset values are getting inflated not just in India but in all emerging markets. This is expected to push the investors to real estate stocks and pure real estates in future. The company stands to gain from this move as it has a sizable land bank.
• The last year there was news in a section of the media that Alchemist Realty Ltd will invest over Rs.5, 000 Cr in the next 7-10 years for developing a land bank of 10,600 acres. The company’s land bank in CY08, stood at 10,600 acres across the country, mainly in the northern states.
• Alchemist Realty proposes to open a chain of specialty restaurants in northern India under ‘Red Cap’ brand. At first, the company would open only 20 (twenty) restaurants by the end of FY11 in northern states. The size of the outlets would vary from 3,200 sq ft to 6,500 sq ft. The company would also develop over 1,000 high-end housing units by 2011. The company would construct luxury villas on nine acres of land in Shimla and an IT park at Chandigarh.

Conclusion: Considering all the factors mentioned above it will be prudent to invest in the shares of Alchemist Realty Ltd for medium to long term perspective, though some short term gains till Rs.21 cannot be ruled out.

From the weekly charts it is found that the stock has a strong support at Rs.13.5; the higher bottom being made at Rs.14.20. The fast Stochastic and Bollinger bands are in buy mode. One can buy the scrip at the CMP of Rs.14.54 for a target of Rs.21 in the short term. In the medium to long term, the scrip can rise to Rs.55-Rs.60. Hence buy this scrip in all declines.

Disclaimer: Though due care has been taken while preparing this report but no responsibility will be assumed by the author for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations or after reading the report.

The calls made herein are for informational purposes and are not recommendations to any person to buy or sell any securities. The information is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness.

The author does not accept any liability for the use of this column for buying and selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his acquaintances, his company or his family

members may or may not have positions in the Scrips mentioned in this column or may be buying or selling the above mentioned scrips during the preparation of this report or may be actively trading (buying and selling) in the scrips during the preparation of this report. I expressly disclaim any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. Investors should take their own decisions while buying and selling the shares/securities. This document is for private circulation and cannot be printed or published in any form, without the written permission of the author.